Yang Jun: Will the current world be lost?

In a few days, the Russian and Ukraine War was two years, and the end of the war was still far away.According to the Ukrainian war report, Russia has nearly 400,000 officers and soldiers, and the number of civilian deaths on Ukraine is estimated to be almost 200,000.If calculated according to the ratio of two to one to one, as of now, the casualties of the two parties have been almost 2 million, and what are the competition?This is really worth thinking about everyone, including Russia and Ukraine and the West.Especially why the war is like this?

In this regard, the author believes that the first reason is that of course, Russia and Ukraine have suffered a terrible strategic misjudgment, but only one after the other: the strategic misjudgment of Russia has been discussed, and I won't go into details; there will be no description of it; regarding the description of it; about it; about the description of it;Ukraine's misjudgment should first be pushed by his military and political heads to be stunned by the previous victory. He couldn't understand the strategic opponent of Russia, so that it was too light to be opponents, which was too conservative.Regarding this, when the Ukraine Commander Zalu was interviewed with an interview with the Economist Magazine last November last year, he understood that the Ukrainian army had a strategic misjudgment against Russia (they thought that Russia would be forced to talk about peace talks after paying certain personnel casualties., Withdraw from Ukraine, so Ukraine's big counterattack becomes waiting for the defense consumption before the arrival of the West more advanced weapons), and admits that "we (U -military) has actually fallen into trouble."

Ukraine's strategy seems to be dragging, waiting, watching.They forgot the truth of soldiers and nobles, and forgot that even if the advanced weapons arrived, they would be inevitable to be casualties. What happened to the situation of the battle suddenly?What happened in the international situation?Even the dramatic changes in the country?In fact, it was when they were waiting for the equipment to counterattack, Russia established the Solovica defense line with golden soup. When they cherished each Ukrainian soldier's life, they started with the Harbin War and North Korea's artillery shell transportation.It is, and the Northeast Asian crisis is four. Just when their military and political opinions were inconsistent, the US presidential election began in full swing.The possibility is also greatly enhanced.

Secondly, the strategy of Aidwu in Europe and the United States has been unhappy, and it has seriously separated from the target.Daru made it clear that the military equipment and ammunition reserves provided by the West have been unable to allow the Ukraine to occupy an advantage in confrontation with the Russian army.This leads to the embarrassing situation of the two harms power: either in Europe and the United States simply do not help, and Russia quickly "de -Nazi, de -militaryization" for Ukraine, which will not cause the war to be delayed for a long time, nor will it leadWar or conflict overflow.Because Russia has always believed that they belong to Europe (no matter how unpredictable it shows the internal affairs of diplomatic internal affairs), what it wants is only geopolitical interests, and it is not intended to mess up the entire world and be in the United States at the same time as Europe and the United States.Therefore, Putin originally conceived was to end the battle within 48 hours (too late in Europe and the United States), waiting for Europe and the United States to slowly accept and recognize the factual facts.

The Western response headed by the United States can be described as a disaster. Not only is it dragging and holding the pipa, but it must be assisted, but every time it is twisted, it is not in place.Almost every time the assistance was upgraded, it was only overdue after the cost of paying heavy casualties in Ukraine.All these variables are superimposed, which not only further leads to the more miserable war, but also protracted, leading to the overwhelming international chaos today.

In fact, just when the Russian and Ukraine stalemate broke out with the Harbin War, and it was not expected to end in the short term.What is even more surprising is that North Korea has recently moved frequently with Russia's support, and claims that "South Korea is an eternal enemy". At the same time, it has abandoned the long -term goal of North Korea to achieve peace and unity and forming a military unified front with Russia.

Putin is anxious to launch China?

In this regard, Fang Ning, a Chinese political scholar, recently wrote an article reminding China to be careful and prevent.The author believes that although North Korea has not rashly launched a war at present, especially when Russia is still trapped in the quagmire of war.But will Northeast Asia be actively encouraged by Russia and fire, causing the regional war?At least from the frequent interaction between the current Russia and North Korea, Putin is obviously eager to divert Western attention, disperse its ability to aid black, and deliberately disrupt the situation in Northeast Asia, and by the way pull China to launch.

Once a war occurs in Northeast Asia, where will China go?Can I put it outside?

If we look at the history of China and North Korea, it is obviously not optimistic.Because North Korea is chaotic, China will intervene, and it has almost become the same law.The Korean War that occurred 70 years ago was even more worthy of our pondering.So far, the academic community has agreed and supported by Stalin's consent and supporting this war, and "the main process of China's decision -making in the war has become more and more clear" (Shen Zhihua: China's intervention of the analysis and reflection of the Korean war decisionNo. 198).Regarding why Stalin was on January 30, 1950, he agreed to Kim Il Sung on the issue of unifying the Korean War.That is, he wants to fight for initiative in East Asia ... Shortly after he agreed that Kim Richeng attacked South Korea, he encouraged Ho Chi Minh to strengthen the war against France in India ... "(Kadis: Cold War)EssenceIn the view of the late US Secretary of State Kissinger, Stalin "agreed to invade South Korea" was because of a "quite horizontal response" (Kissinger: Great Diplomacy) in the face of the West's Cold War curbing strategy in Europe.In my opinion, Stalin was still thinking about a greater strategy at the time, how to use East Asia as the second expansion area of ​​the Cold War to compete to the West.

Today, Russia and the entire Western situation are similar, which is similar to the opposition between the Soviet Union and the Western Cold War.This can not help but attract great attention.Originally, people had hoped that the international situation would gradually become clear, and they returned to the peace and prosperity of the past economic globalization. I did not expect that it has become worse and more dangerous.Even recently, many scholars have predicted that there will be greater conflict between war in 2024, and even the outbreak of the third world war will be unknown. It can be said that the world is falling towards turbulence and disorder.

Therefore, in response to the uncertain factors in the upcoming area this year, China should make a plan early to prevent the prevalence of the presence, and the war of war is invisible.EssenceAt the same time, today's international order continues to be turbulent, not only reminds us of the hard -earned peace, especially the contemporary people who have been unknown for war for a long time, and the importance of war reserve.The importance of international order.

I wonder if the years we live in today's quietness is like Stefan Zweig's tranquil and peaceful world before the World War I nostalgic in yesterday's world?This is really worrying, and it is worth thinking about everyone.

The author is a researcher at Harvard Kennedy College Ash Democratic Governance and Innovation Center