In recent days, the official Malaysia may deliberately create a positive atmosphere, saying that the political situation has stabilized.It can govern Malaysia stably until a few years later, so you can focus on the development of the socio -economic.Of course, this "situation is good", of course, it cannot be said to be a wishful thinking, at least two factors.
One of them, in the past few months, there have been several members of the parliament members who have been elected as the party's unity of the party members of the opposition of the opposition and national alliance members who have been elected in the last election.Ren Xiang made the Anwar government's almost infertile in danger because of the cause of the disaster and other reasons.The reason why they supported Anwar with such "awkward" political means, instead of cutting off the local government's members of the United Government, it was mainly to avoid the restrictions of the bosom jumping law that had taken effect.
The law stipulates that if a member of the member changes the party (including the transition to an independent person or vice versa), his seat will be suspended, that is, the parliamentarians must "jump naked" and cannot jump with the seat.Therefore, these soil members of the Turkish regiment kept legal vulnerabilities to keep their seats.At most, the Tu Tuan Party Central Committee can only freeze their party membership (such as not being able to run for party positions, etc.), because in order not to conflict with the freedom of speech in the Constitution, it is stipulated that the members of the party can be kept by the party.After them, they were able to make a good job of justification to the Anwar government camp.
Anwar's return to these local party members is quite complacent.It is said that there will be more soil members of the Turks one after another to paint gourds afterwards.In this way, can the Changming government still be unstable?
Second, Malaysia has just ushered in the new head of state, Sudan, Johor.He has always been strong and has long been talking. He is not pleasing to the chaos of Malaysia's politics, hoping to let the current government do the full session until the election.An Hua's opinion seems that when the head of state arrives at the National Palace, Anwar even tires to sort out the medal of his wearing. The relationship is obvious.So can there be a certain degree of escort, can the Changming government still be unstable?
Not only the government has continuously released its own extremely stable information, the folk -especially the business community at home and abroad -also believes that it is true that the Malaysian politics is indeed stable, at least before the next election.This may be a political and social instinct for all circles out of the chaos in the past four years (almost changing the new Prime Minister every year).Because I do n’t want to see the political arena to continue to be chaotic, as soon as it appears signs that seem to be conducive to stability, I quickly emphasize that politics will be stable, at least not stable.This is understandable from the perspective of social psychology.
However, objectively -at least from the political history to the constitutional system, the political arena of Malaysia, or more cut, will the coalition government sit so steadily in the next few years?That may not be.
First look at the precedent in the history of Malaysia.In the middle of 2018, after Malaysia achieved the first rotation of political parties since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the new Pakatan Harapan (also a member of the United Government, who was led by former Prime Minister Mahathir, is now re -leading by Anhua)., Promote a series of reforms.UMNO, who was the first time in the wild, had not yet changed jobs, and could only watch that the members of its members jumped to the Pakatan Harapan, especially the Turkish Party party led by Mahathir.This situation continued until the end of 2019.
But by the beginning of 2020, the second leader of the Tuling Party Mu Yuding and others were worried that they continued to stay in the Pakatan Harapan without the support of most Malay voters.Azmin's power fighting became hot.So soon, Mu and Ah and Ah went to launch the "Sheraton Counterfeit", took the parliament that was loyal to himself, and cooperated with the Nurporation and Islamic Party at the time.
The current situation is similar. The green tide represented by the National League (mainly the Iraqi Party) is aggressive.The belongings of Huazhou also won a lot.Therefore, as a typical Malay member under the Changming government, the Anwar government is not supported by most Malay voters. If it continues to support it, the political future may be ruthless. Only supporting green tide is "wise".Act of.
If this political considerations are increasingly claiming to support the Anwar government, members of the Anwar government are spreading in their hearts, and they imitate the "feat" of Mu Yuding's overshoot that year, it is not impossible.On the other hand, there is a contradiction between Anwar between the Justice Party and the two -hander Rafiz, and it is unknown whether the latter will imitate Azmin to go away.The 2.0 version of the Cervical coup may repeat it. How can the Changming government be stable?
As for the constitutional system, after all, the head of state is the constitutional monarch. If you can get the support of most members in the wild alliance, it will be difficult for the government to not change it. Unless the dismissal of the parliament will hold the election early, the results of the election should be more beneficial to the green tide side.Therefore, the so -called stability of the Malaysian politics should still be a granted view.
The author is a senior researcher at the Singapore International Affairs Society (Research Institute)
Chief Counselor of the Malaysian Pacific Research Center
