In this survey on Chinese issues on China, which is more worthy of play, how high the strength of the military threats that the mainland will adopt is lower than the American experts; anotherIn the case, once Taiwan has something to do, American experts believe that the proportion of American rescue will be higher than that of Taiwanese experts.
U.S. National Security Consultant Sarawan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi talks in Bangkok, Thailand from January 26th to 27th.This is one of the high -level communication of the "San Francisco Vision" in the follow -up of the San Francisco talks last year. The Taiwan issue is also one of the themes of the talks.Because the Taiwan election has just ended, and a group of Zheng and Vice President Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin, who have been posted by Beijing with the mark of the "Double Independence", are concerned about the situation of the Taiwan Strait.Essence
In November last year, when the Democratic Progressive Party was brewing Lai Xiao's election, Zhu Fenglian, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Mainland China Office, responded that Lai Xiao is "independence and independence", and said in a scary: "What does it mean? What does the life of the people in Taiwan mean and what the future destiny of Taiwan means, I think every Taiwan compatriots are very clear. "The office only said: "Elections cannot change the basic pattern and development direction of cross -strait relations ..."
What are the currently playing abacus in Beijing?According to a brief statement issued by the White House after talks with Shalvin and Wang Yi, the two talk about global and regional issues such as the U -Russia War, the Middle East, North Korea, South China Sea, and Myanmar.In May, they also used the same adjective when they met).The statement specially highlights the two -strait issue, and Shalvin emphasizes the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait in the talks.
The press release issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China stated that Wang Yi reiterated its statement in the talks in the talks: "The election in Taiwan cannot change Taiwan is part of China." He emphasizedRisk "is" the biggest challenge of Sino -US relations ", and requires the United States to" not support the implementation of Taiwan independence commitments to the action and support China's peace and reunification. "
From the text published by both parties, both of them are stating the established position and there is no particularly sharp words.However, during the Taiwan election, mainland China continued to use the empty sprinkler spy balloon and military aircraft to interfere with Taiwan; after the election, it still disturbed Taiwan.Sea.Will these military interference be gradually enhanced?How will the situation of the backstage sea develop?
The worship will not be lifted to the Taiwan Strait Alert
The China Power Project of the China Famous Think Tank Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS) announced a report after the election in Taiwan.Experts believe that the US -China Summit last November could not alleviate the situation of the Taiwan Straits. Beijing would not "listen to it and watch its behavior". It was not until he proposed the specific cross -strait policy to take action; howeverIn the hurry, before Taiwan's inauguration, he threatened his force on Taiwan.What is worth playing is that the strength of the military threats that will be adopted by the mainland is lower than the American experts. On the other hand, once Taiwan has something, the proportion of American experts believes that the proportion of military rescue is higher than that of Taiwanese experts.
This survey was conducted before the Taiwan election. From November to December 2023, 52 American experts and 35 Taiwanese experts were investigated.The Taiwan side cooperates with the Taiwan official think tank National Institute of Defense Security (INDSR). They choose the respondents and the political spectrum of the interviewees covers all parties.
Most Taiwanese experts believe that Beijing seeing Taiwan's unsatisfactory election results is that the most likely reaction is to increase non -military pressure on Taiwan, but American experts are more worried that Beijing will perform military exercises around Taiwan again -justLike the situation of the US House of Representatives Perosi in 2022.Overall, more than half of experts believe that the Taiwan Strait crisis similar to 1995 to 96 may occur from 2024.
Whether it is an expert in the United States or Taiwan, most of them believe that in the next five years, mainland China is most likely to have a threat to Taiwan to block (blockade) and quarantine.According to the definition of this survey, the isolation is through law enforcement armed police, maritime police, or maritime militia to interfere with Taiwan's entry and exit through legal reasons.This is actually the method of U.S. President Kennedy during the Cold War.
Harvard historians Niall Ferguson predicted in May 2023 that China will block or isolate Taiwan in the next five or six years, causing a global chip crisis.In 2022, a survey conducted by the Chicago International Affairs Association, which is focusing on foreign policy analysis and public opinion research, found that 62%of interviewees supported the United States to prevent Beijing from blocking Taiwan by the Navy.
The CSIS survey found that American experts mostly believe that if mainland China uses isolation to deal with Taiwan, it means that it will not move towards more severe force; Taiwanese experts believe that isolation may be a prelude to blocking or invasion.Most of the experts in Meitai believe that if China has a military blockade, Taiwan will not support it for three months.
The Russian and Ukraine War entered the third year, and the war continued for so long.More than 70 % of the American experts believe that once the mainland is committed to Taiwan, it will continue to war at least one year, but only 50 % of Taiwanese experts believe that China can maintain a year of combat power.What is more interesting is that 44%of American experts believe that in order to fight against the US military or coalition forces in Taiwan, mainland China will start nuclear weapons, but only 11%of Taiwanese experts believe that the mainland will use nuclear weapons.
American experts are confident in the military involved in the United States
U.S. Taiwan experts believe that after last year, various relationships in the United States and China to alleviate the action to help lift the Taiwan Strait alert.Once the Taiwan Strait crisis breaks out, will the United States and the "American" Allied forces rescue Taiwan?If the mainland invades Taiwan, almost all American experts (96%) are confident that the United States will involve military involvement, but only 71%of Taiwanese experts believe that the United States will send troops.As for the U.S. Allied Forces, 60 % of the American experts and 50 % of Taiwanese experts believe they will send troops.If the mainland implements a low -intensity isolation method on Taiwan, most experts on both sides do not think that the United States will send troops to interference.
China claims that the PLA established in 2027 to achieve modernization of the army. Most of the experts interviewed believe that no matter whether this goal is achieved, it will not affect the mainland's options for the martial arts of Taiwan.In addition, the Chinese economy is going downhill, but half of the American scholars believe that the poor economic poor will affect the military plan for Taiwan, and the opinions of Taiwanese scholars and experts believe that it will not have much impact (37%).Possibility (34%).
In 2024, the Taiwan Strait surging waves facing the new President Lai Qingde.In the eyes of Beijing, Cai Yingwen assisted Lee Teng -hui to construct the "war criminals" of the "two countries"; Lai Qingde has been characterized as a clear banner of Taiwan independence. Therefore, many experts expect the Taiwan Strait to have a crisis this year.Looking back at Tsai Ing -wen's election eight years ago, Beijing closed the door of communication after she was in office; many dangerous situations in the past eight years, Cai Yingwen was appropriate and passed peacefully.Then see if Lai Qingde can be as stable and provocative as Tsai Ing -wen, and can hold on the scary of Wen to attack and walk through the trials set by Beijing.
The author is a columnist in Taiwan
