Taiwan and legislators elected dust. Although the competition is fierce, the DPP, the Kuomintang and the people have their own.The Democratic Progressive Party has joined the Presidential Palace for three consecutive times and broke the curse of the ruling party with only two term. The Kuomintang won the Congress and became the largest party of the Taiwan Legislative Yuan.As for the People's Party, although there are only eight seats in the Legislative Yuan election, because the DPP and the Kuomintang have no more than half, they have the opportunity to become a key minority, which has laid a situation of "three strongers" for politics.
The opposition of the Taiwan House may be more serious
This situation seems to be the situation where the eyes of many thesexs have repeated the situation more than 20 years ago and the legislators elected to the big wild.However, because the current cross -strait relations and the world situation are very different from that time, Taiwan's current situation is more complicated.For example, in the 2000 presidential election, although Chen Shui -bian was elected with less than half of the votes, the DPP was the largest party of the Legislative Council in the next year's legislators elections.President Lee Teng -hui also often coordinated in the Legislative Yuan, which greatly eased the situation of blue and green confrontation at that time.
Compared to Chen Shui -bian, Lai Qingde is often evaluated by the media "not easy to compromise", which highlights that he has limited cooperation space for the Kuomintang and party legislators with his position.In addition, the Legislative President Election will be held on February 1st. The former mayor of Kaohsiung, the former mayor of the Kuomintang, is currently hot, but the party's CPPCC has no ability as Wang Jinping.Lai Qingde's cooperation is probably not so optimistic. The opposite situation of the Taiwan House (legislative) house in the future (president) of Taiwan may be more serious than the Chen Shuibian era.
Of course, the DPP is also seeking the people's party to hold You Xizheng as the Legislative President, but Ke Wenzhe is very resistant to the new trend faction of the DPP that Lai Qingde belongs.Although Lai Qingde withdrew from the new department after being elected president, and You Xizheng belonged to the DPP's "anti -new" internal "anti -new" faction, but the new department is still the first to this day.On the selection of partners, the Kuomintang is still the best choice.In addition, the president's election is a two -round system. The people's party legislators recommend their own self -investment in the first round, resulting in the number of votes, and they will vote for the second round. They may not be able to change the results at that time.
Therefore, no matter how the situation evolves, the courtyard's opposition is inevitable. After Lai Qingde took office on May 20, its administrative agenda is estimated to face the constraints of the Legislative Yuan.This challenge will also appear above the cross -strait relations, allowing Taiwan's cross -strait policies to have more variables due to the potential dispute between the government and courtyard.
Some readers may be curious that, with the current situation, what impact will there be, even for Singapore and Malaysia, which are preparing to work together to create a big cause in the near future, or even opportunities?
For mainland China, the variables of political turmoil in Taiwan may add difficulty to predict Taipei's policy of cross -strait policies, but this situation also means that the radical proposition of Lai Qingde and the DPP will be balanced by the Legislative Yuan.And compared to cross -strait relations, young Taiwanese voters generally pay greater attention to domestic and economic, housing and other internal affairs.This political and public opinion orientation will allow Taiwan to maintain cross -strait relations in the short term, and Beijing seems to be unwilling to this. After the reaction of Lai Qingde's election, the toughness became gentle and low -key.It will tend to show the performance of static braking and maintaining the status quo.
The response of the United States after Lai Qingde was elected, and it was essentially the same as China.On the eve of the vote on the US election in the United States, it would send delegations to Taiwan. After Lai Qingde was elected, it reiterated that the "one China principle" in the United States was euphemistically advising the Democratic Progressive Party to dispel any change of the status quo.Of course, Lai Qingde chose Xiao Meiqin as the deputy, that is, she was a delegates in the United States, and hoped that it would offset the Huafu's resistance to the DPP's radical claims. This move actually means that the new president has a very position on the United States.Emphasis, so it will not take the initiative to provoke cross -strait relations in the short term.
As for why it is "in the short term", because the United States will hold a presidential election in this year, if Bayeng can be successfully nominated, elected and re -elected, the cross -strait policy may not change much, but if Trump will eventually winSelected, then Taiwan's existing cross -strait policy may change.
The risk of cross -strait relations between China and the United States is still
Furthermore, after Lai Qingde officially took over in May, if the performance was unsatisfactory due to the dispute between the courtyard, it would be likely to deliberately provoke cross -strait issues based on past experience to transfer the attention of voters.These are dependent from Taiwan and the United States, and Beijing is clear. Therefore, it is better to look at the DPP's re -election of the President of the Democratic Progressive Party.
It can be seen that although the relationship between China and the United States and Cross -Strait has signs of cooling in the short term, the variables and risks still exist in 2024. In addition, many think tanks and investment banks in Europe and the United States have always believed that there is a risk of force conflict in the Taiwan Strait.Global investors carefully consider re -deploying investment.Of course, if you change the entry point, from the perspective of Southeast Asian countries with relatively stable social structure and geopolitics, the various uncertainty emerged after the election of Taiwan will contribute to some good opportunities in Singapore and Malaysia.
Xinma has recently signed a memorandum of understanding of Johor -Singapore Economic Zone. The boundary track of the Xinrou subway system has also been successfully connected. The new Malaysia high -speed rail, which has been silent for many years, has also begun to bid.The sublimation of this new Malaysia cooperative relationship has essentially combined the advantages of the two places. Singapore's transportation, financial system, and low exchange rates and human resources of Malaysia are complementary. This is veryAttractive.In addition, Taiwan continues to be in charge of the DPP, which will not change the new southbound policy in the short term, and mainland Chinese companies are also very active in Southeast Asia recently. ThereforeEssence
The author is a commentator of the Malaysian current affairs and assistant professor of the International Research Center of Raman University
