If the American spending on cars and foods decreases, where will the money flow?The trend should be used for more money for entertainment experience, whether it is streaming subscriptions, tour concerts, video games, or family vacations.
Tom Cruise (Tom Cruise) in 1996, the sports agent Jere Magaler, played by Mr. Jerry Maguire, spoke one of the greatest streams of Hollywood: "Let me make a lot of money to make a lot of money(Show Me the Money). But the smarter line comes from the wife of Rod Tidwell, the only customer of Magawa.When Magawa can provide the best job with Tidwell to endorse the water bed, the savvy spouse exclaimed: "He is worthy of four categories: shoes, cars, clothing brands and soft beverages." At that timeThese four products can be called four gems of celebrities endorsement industry.But now the two of the four are cracking, and these cracks will reshape the US economy.
If a European describes Americans, you are likely to hear two words: fat and luxury cars.This is of course stereotyped, but on average, Americans are indeed 20%heavier than neighbors on the other side of the Atlantic, and the size of the car is 32%larger.This is not just a matter of weight and length.Food (including soft beverages) and cars are the main driving forces of the US economy, hiring 16 million and 4.4 million respectively.However, these two industries may soon start to shrink, which will subvert the 70 -year trend of American life after World War II.
So many generations of American consumers are relying on Twinkies (compilation: cream sandwich cakes, representatives of junk food) and V8 engines, why does the taste now change?This is so strange for children and pharmacists.
Today's children don't care about cars.In the 1980s, 80%of American high school students had a driver's license; since then, this number has dropped by 40%.Just like the audience of the symphony orchestra, the average age of American drivers has been moved up, so 70 -year -old people are now more likely to drive than the age of 20.Compared with the 1960s, this was a considerable change. At that time, the story of the Beach Boys sang a girl: She "let the Indian 500 -mile race look like a slow Roman chariot competition."And always" cool, cool, cool, until her dad drove away from her Ford Lei (T-Bird). "
At that time, the car was more fashionable, with jet aircraft rear and two -color tone paint.Automotive manufacturers often conceal their new models to car magazines, and paparazzi will chase prototype cars in Detroit Back Street.The president will host the unveiling ceremony of the new model on TV.Today, Bill Ford can't hear people's amazing sound; Apple's Tim Cook hear it.Why not applaud the latter?If you want to take a car, you only need to slide on the touch screen a few times.
The decline in Americans's interest in cars seems to be in a state of autonomous driving -this is a proper state, because autonomous cars are about to come out (mainly symbolic sense, but if you live in Austen, it is really realHere I am).Whenever there are autonomous cars hitting the bending fence or pedestrian, the media will report it, but these cars are becoming more and more intelligent.Soon after, automobile insurance companies may start to no longer underwrite human drivers.Then, compared with gasoline power vehicles, the components of electric vehicles decreased by 90%and manufacturing workers decreased by 30%.
Under the squeezing of all these pressures, unless the robot strike one day, it is difficult to imagine that the car will become future economic headlines.It is noticeable that the US Broadcasting Corporation has recently stopped broadcasting a scenario comedy in a hard -working car company.
The second gem of Mr. Sweetheart's four categories -soft drinks -the fragility is not because of the change of children's taste, but because the taste of overweight people has changed.At present, half of the American adults (more than 135 million people) are not diabetes or in the early stage of diabetes.In the past six months, the stock price of snack companies such as Hershey and Mondelez has fallen by about 30%.
Investors and the food industry executives are worried that more and more people will take appetite inhibitory drugs such as Smeglugin peptide and other Smeglugin peptides such as OZEMPIC and Wegovy.A study in 2021 shows that taking such drugs for one year has reduced calories and reduced weight by about 15%.Morgan Stanley reports that 65%of the dietary drugs are taken to reduce the drinking volume of sugary carbonated beverages; President Wal -Mart said that customers' shopping baskets have narrowed, "less capacity, lower calories."The amount of food bills of Americans may decrease a few percentage points.
Of course, these new drugs also face various obstacles.Long -term use may reveal dangerous side effects, or evidence shows that their appetite effects will decline.When the user loses the desire for Krispy Kreme donuts and 32 ounces of Mountain Dew, it may also become depressed.
At the same time, it is difficult for insurance companies to decide which drugs should be underwritten and who to underwrite.These drugs are expensive, but if customers can lose weight, they are unlikely to have a heart attack. They do not need expensive knee replacement surgery, nor do they need to rely on electric walking cars to visit the mall.
If Americans' expenditures on cars and foods decrease, where will the money flow?The trend should be used for more money for entertainment experience, whether it is streaming subscriptions, tour concerts, video games, or family vacations.
Disney may find more fans to patronize their theme parks, but the consumption in the Minnie baking shop will be reduced.Mark Zuckerberg's "Metaverse" or Google's "Starline" holographic video chat technology may begin to become more economical for potential users.Taylor Swift may raise the concert fare higher, or create a di -dioxide to sing at the same time in venues around the world.The cruise company can obtain higher profits by reducing the food display of the buffet restaurant on board.
When Mr. Sweetheart was released, we have no iPhone, no streaming platforms, nor electric cars.The word 5G sounds like a parking space number, and "cloud" exists only in the sky.Car and sugary drinks seem to be an eternal match for Americans.But soon we can only see them in the rearview mirror.
The author Todd G. Buchholz was the director of the President's old Bush government's White House economic policy, the managing director of the Tiger Hedge Fund, and the winner of the Alin Yang Teaching Award of Harvard University
English Original: America after Peak Cars and Snacks
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2023.
