The British Economist Weekly website published on January 22 entitled that the World is preparing an article for Donald Trump's possible return.The full text is as follows:

There are more than ten months before the US presidential election.Just as the financial market is going to bet on events in the future, the world is also starting to prepare for the consequences of Trump's second election of president.These consequences include tariffs, supporting support for Ukraine, public affairs of other allies, and trading with "enemies".Global rules have further declined.

Every time the US government changes, it will generate inconsistent foreign policy.However, as the Bayeng government and the Trump administration have a huge difference in policy stand and such a change in the background of chaos, the war has increased sharply, so its consequences will be particularly huge.

Trump's second presidential term will be different from the first one, because the world is even worse, but also because Trump is more likely to tolerate officials' obstruction of his agenda.

For some politicians and countries that are consistent with Trump's ideology, Trump is elected president a good news.In Israel, if Benjamin Neitana can continue to be in power by 2025, he can expect Trump to give excessive enthusiastic support, and Palestine's desire to build his own country will be left behind.Soul partners such as Olban Victor can expect that Trump will be enthusiastically receiving it in an oval office.Trump also has a good impression on Saudi Arabia's de facto rulers and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a close relationship with Trump, so India can also look forward to the continuity of the policy and the reduction of the United States' criticism of their citizenship.Even some free democratic western allies seem to be relieved.Former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison insisted that "there is nothing to worry about."

In addition, Trump's upside -down style and moody personality make it difficult for us to predict.Nonetheless, we can still try to outline the President who likes to trade with others to the "cheap people" he thinks (so -called unnamed allies), "big block" (annoying opponent) and "losers) and" losers) and "losers)"(Country he doesn't care about) attitude.

"Occupy the Battered"

Most allies will be regarded by Trump as a cheap person.They can expect that they will be treated without emotional colors: assessing how much they are "taking the U.S. cars", such as maintaining a surplus in the US trade or spending little spend on the army.Some cheap people are considering taking unconventional diplomatic methods to fight for Trump's favor.A Western leader explained that according to Trump's first term experience, the easiest way to influence him is to arrange the royal family and sports stars to receive him to gain his favor.France praised Trump with a parade of National Day; Britain arranged a state visit that Queen participated during his lifetime.

A fragile ally is Ukraine.Objectively speaking, the United States' support for Ukraine is an excellent trading: the accumulated assistance of the United States on the war is not 10%of the US defense budget, and there is no casualties of US personnel, but the United States has restrained the Russian army and weakenedRussia's economy.Most of the funds for buying weapons for Ukraine remain in the United States.Nevertheless, Trump may think that war is a drag on American resources, so he may try to promote Ukraine to reach a peace agreement with Russia.

"Big Big head country"

So what about Trump may be regarded as a "big block" country?American enemies and opponents may expect that the United States will make concessions in a threat, and from time to time to relax the threat to reach a shocking "transaction".Considering Trump crossing the border in 2019 and entering North Korea -he had previously threatened to burn it.Among these "big heads", Russia can expect Trump to give the most friendly treatment because Trump admires Putin.

During the first term of Trump, Iran encountered the "maximum pressure" sanctions and the killing of Cassim Sulamanni. However, when Iran attacked Saudi Arabian oil facilities, Trump did notResponse.Considering the chaos of Iran's manufacturing in the Middle East, the most likely result is to impose tough sanctions on the regime, which may induce it to continue the agent war in the region.

Although Trump's handling of "big blocks" is destructive, it has also created opportunities: For example, you can imagine that he may try to incorporate Iran and his agents into the regional peace agreement -after all, hisThe government mediates the Abraham agreement between Israel and several Arab countries in 2020.Israel and Saudi Arabia reach an agreement more likely.However, the same destructiveness also increases the possibility of misjudgment.Trump prefers to negotiate with his opponent, which may create opportunities to achieve a transaction, but he may also be played by his opponent.

Other countries

The largest number of countries in the third group: They are neither intimate allies in the United States nor opponents.Trump may regard them as "losers".The Biden government encountered more aggressive behavior in Europe and the Middle East, but still has options in using American power.The United States withdrew from Afghanistan is an example.In places that are not interested in the United States, conflicts have also increased dramatically, including the Sudan's civil war, the "coup zone" in the African region southern Africa, and a new war in Armenia and Azerbaijan.Similarly, this disorderly trait also creates opportunities, such as the reorganization of global energy systems and the prosperity of illegal oil trade.

During the new period of Trump, the rules of all aspects of the world -from trade to human rights -it is likely to be further eroded, and the situation is worse.For those poor countries with weak domestic institutions, this may mean that the possibility of conflict on outbreaks is higher.Global organizations are unlikely to fill this blank.

If Trump won in the 2024 election, he will work in January 2025, and it will be one year away from now.During this period, it was difficult for the Biden government to make a binding commitment overnight, which means that the credibility of the Biden government and the ability to intervene in global events may gradually weaken this year.The Republican obstacles will make this situation worse, just as meaningless to stop assisting Ukraine.

One year, it is not enough for Trump to realize that Trump may come to power again, so as to formulate alternatives from trade rules to additional nuclear deterrence.At least, as the United States no longer assume its responsibility, it will also create a vacuum.It is understanding one thing around the world that 12 months are not enough to fill this vacuum.(Compiled/Tuyu)