Three Presidential candidates of Indonesia, Anis, Plabovo, and Gandhar on December 12 on TV on TV, the theme is related to the political system, political ethics, corruption, and human rights issues of Indonesia.In the process of debate, Anis, who was able to argue, was aggressive and asked the political morality of candidates; Gandhar also played with the topic.
Obviously, they refer to Zakko's brother -in -law Anwar USman, as the chairman of the Constitutional court, and amended the presidential election regulations, so that his nephew Giblan can become Plaboor's deputy.Later, Anwar was suspended because of serious violations of morality and behavior codes, but the decision to modify the provisions still took effect.Plabovo avoids moral issues, only to say that Gilblan's election is legal, and also said that Anis should not play games like a child.Plabovovo avoids heavy issues. Generally, it is believed that in the debate, Anis and Gandal have performed well, but they did not change the basic polls.
Gyblan performed well at the debate
On December 22, the vice presidential candidate also launched a television debate with the theme of Indonesia's economy and digitalization.When Giblan was nominated, it was once rumored that the official would cancel the debate of the Vice President in order to protect Gibland.The relevant official final decision to decide the debate of the Vice President.Faced with two sophisticated political opponents, that is, Mu Haimin, chairman of the unified party and the current vice chief of parliament, is the same as Ma Ford, the current minister of politics and judicial coordination.
However, Giblan's performance at the debate was unexpected.He supported the big scene, tried to protect his father Zoko's policy, and depicts a beautiful vision. At the same time, he continued to communicate with young audiences and asked them to create a beautiful future of Indonesia.He also thanked the two experienced politicians and professors on the same stage with him, let him learn a lot.He thanked Plabowa for choosing him as the deputy.After the debate, Plabowa came to praise Giblan, saying that if he was a school teacher, he would perform 9.9 points to Giblan; that's close to full score!
In fact, Ma Ford performed the most in the debate. He spoke in the head, which was reasonable and the elderly.As for Mu Haimin, he proposed the economic concept of civilians, but he failed to express it well.He used to be in favor of the moving capital when he was in the Plaboor team. Now he has become Anis's deputy but opposed to the capital, and was pointed out by Giblan.
Will the debate of this vice presidential candidate affect polls?The Ronpie Research Department announced the results of the poll results before December 11 before the debate of the vice presidential vice presidential candidate: the Plaboor -Giblan group won 39.3%, the Anis -Mu Haimin group 16.7%, the Gander -Ma Ford group only only the only groupGet 15.3%.28.7%of the respondents did not choose or have not made a decision.After the debate of Zheng and Vice President, that is, on December 23, the compass panel made a telephone interview, and 66.7%answered that the choice would not change.Only 11.3%will change the choice due to debate.The remaining 22%have not made a decision.
However, another polls of Indonesia (IPI) also released the poll results before the debate on December 9: Phuket received 45.8%; Ganma 25.6%; Alumu 22.8%, 5.8%of those who have not decided yet, 5.8%EssenceThe Political Communication Research Center (CPCS) released the results of the poll after the end of the presidential debate on December 14: Phuket received 51.7%; Amu was 21.8%; Ganma 21.3%, 5.2%did not make a choice.The polls of the Ronhard Research Department are more conservative, but more reliable.
So, the debate of the Zheng and Vice President did not have much influence on the polls. The combinations of Plabovo and Giblan are still far ahead, and Anis and Gander still fell behind.Most of the polls show that the combination of Plabovo and Gibland has not yet received more than 50%of its support.JiBlan joined the Plaboor team in order to win the votes of young voters.For the presidential election, 31%of young voters from 17 to 30, many of them were the first voting.They don't know much about politics, and the voting decisions are mainly based on personal preferences.
The intellectual world is disappointed with Zoko's play belt wind
polls found that neither "skirt wind" and "political dynasties" have not received the criticism and exclusion of most people.In addition, Plabowo smiled all day long, and Giblan was the same, and many young people may vote for them.In addition, Plaboor may have invited the masters to "wash away" his previous stains that infringe human rights, making people forget that he was full of controversial in the past, only remembering the currently amiable Plabovo.The above reasons have given the Plaboor -Giblan's combination to the greatest support.
Many Indonesian intellectuals disappointed with Zako University and were deeply dissatisfied with his eldest son's election vice president.In the eyes of these intellectuals, Zoko originally contributed to establishing the Indonesian democratic system. Nowadays, in order to establish his own "political dynasty", he has abandoned the principles of democracy and plays the "skirt wind" game to destroy Indonesia's democratic political system.Many people came out to criticize and accused Zoko.
However, this does not really affect the development of the election. At least so far, the public's support for Zoko is still high.However, some analysts pointed out that Zoko has begun to control the media, and the reports of polls are beneficial to him, so he does not believe it.However, the analyst who supported Zoko didn't take it for granted.
The fact that the unsatisfactory argument is that Zoko has made deployment. Not long ago, he replaced the highest leader of the army and chose a relative to be commander.Police forces have long become supporters of Zako.The retired generals in his cabinet are also loyal to him, and one of the veterans named Moldogo also threatened those who "destroy the reputation of President Zoko".In the business and financial circles, Zoko's influence is also extraordinary.According to the latest reports, the donations of most rich people have flowed to the Plaboopvo and Gilblan related to Zoko, and they continue to continue, so their funds are the most abundant.The Ganma Group has a shortage of funds, and the Amu combination funds have the least funds.The wealthy merchants are afraid of the "wrong" candidate.
Zoko is a king, and there is still 80%of the support so far, so to win, you must get Zakko support.Zoko first supported Gandhar, and later supported Plabovo and Gandhar.However, on October 25 this year, Gibblan officially became Vice President of Plaboor.Although Zoko did not openly support Plaboor, the people knew that he supported his son's combination.Therefore, Zokko volunteers and supporters who originally supported Gambar have now supported Plaboor, and Gandhar's support has declined.
The support rates of Gandhar, the three provinces of China Java, East Java, and Yogyaku, also declined because of the fact that the voters who originally supported Gandhar supported the Gilblan's combination.As a result, Gambar no longer has the advantage in these three provinces.What is even more surprising is that the number of votes supported by Anis signs slightly, although not many.Instead, the number of voters who swayed or have not yet decided increased by about 30%in these three provinces.This means that they also depend on the performance of these three groups of candidates in the next two months.In addition, West Sumatra was originally the site of Plaboor. However, due to the alliance of Plabowo and the son of the enemy, some voters who originally supported him were hesitant.
Observer believes that the hope of Phuket's leading lead is not a problem, but it is not easy to get more than 50%of votes in the first round of elections.It is likely that the Indonesian presidential election in 2024 takes two rounds to decide.
The author is a senior visiting researcher at the Yosov Issa East South Asian Research Institute in Singapore
Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajelenan International Research Institute part -time professor
