Comments: Goldman Sachs 2023s biggest misjudgment in 2023 said that he learned t

Source: Bloomberg

Author: SELCUK Gokoluk

One of the biggest and most common misjudgments in 2023 is the glory of the Chinese economy after betting on the epidemic. Goldman Sachs Global Currency, interest rates and emerging market strategies said that he has learned two lessons from it.

At the beginning of this year, Wall Street Banks such as Goldman Sachs coincided with the great hope of the 2023 situation in China. The strategist such as Kinger Lau predicts that the Chinese stock market will rise by 15%.It is expected that under the rebound of the world's second largest economy, other assets are also expected to be glorious, helping global emerging markets to usher in a glorious year.

The result is contrary to their wishes. The Chinese stock market fell more than 15%, while many emerging markets performed well.

Kamakshya Trivedi in Goldman Sachs said in an interview that the first lesson was to look at emerging markets and emerging markets outside China.For a period of time, Chinese assets are not related to many other emerging market assets: this is the case in stock and fixed income.

He said that the second lesson is: even in the face of the Fed's radical interest rate hike cycle, strong dollar, and China's economic slowdown, a wider range of emerging markets is still tough.For emerging market assets, this is a very bad environmental combination, but the performance of emerging market assets is full of toughness.

In fact, if you do not enter China, emerging market stocks have risen by 16%this year, and the MSCI emerging market benchmark index included in Chinese stocks has risen by only 4.4%.

TriveDi said that from the perspective of emerging markets, the most disappointing thing is that despite the low valuation, the Chinese economy continues to slow down, and the assets of emerging markets have been dragged throughout the year.

TriveDi said that the main cause of the market for developing countries to show toughness is policy actions.He said that the central bank of emerging markets took the initiative and raised interest rates early to deal with the upcoming impact of inflation.

"I think, compared with many developed markets, they get a bit first, and this fact is definitely helpful for them," he said."This macro combination looks much better than before, which is a very positive thing for emerging market assets. We expect that the total return of emerging market assets next year will be positive."