The national interests of the National Interest Published on December 22 issued a titled war with China is not an inevitable article. The author is Ruian Bo Kao.The full text compiles as follows:
Recently, China -US diplomatic relations thaw. Restarting dialogue is a positive progress, but the fundamental problem of deep levels has not yet been resolved.Will the conflict happen in this reality?Frankly speaking, the situation does not look optimistic, but this does not mean that conflict is inevitable.The power of destiny will not force Washington and Beijing to conflict.Peace can be maintained, but the premise is that both governments are willing to work hard for this.
Experts and scholars often look at Sino -US relations from the perspective of ancient Greek historians.Graham Aireson, a professor at Harvard University, is destined to have a battle: Can China and the United States avoid the trap of Xunxione?It is a famous example.He said: "The trap of Xiu Xidde means that when a rising country threatens to replace the existing Shouguo country, there will be inevitable confusion ... When a rising country can threaten or even replace the existing Successor,The structural pressure caused by this will lead to violent conflict, without exception.However, the complexity of Sino -US relations far exceeds this comparison.The Xiu Xide trap model failed to fully consider this fact, that is, Washington and Beijing have a considerable influence on intensifying or alleviating tensions.Change of hard power is just a related factors in this calculation, and the two sides have continued to be relatively peaceful for decades.
However, the two sides have not experienced the test. The tension between China and the United States is not fresh, but there are many examples of successful relief in history in history.The historical of Sino -US relations shows an obvious model of each other.This situation leads to an important question: why?
A word of words -trade.In 2022, the trade and service trade in the United States and China was US $ 758.4 billion.In the past 30 years, Washington is one of China's largest trading partners, and both of the United States and China have made a lot of money.Trade has always been a key stabilizer. Steady trade can prevent the severe policy changes that exacerbate the possibility of conflict, thereby promoting peace.However, the increasing tension situation is forcing the Pacific Cross Straits to "decide" the economy to reduce potential losses.This trend highlights a key source of tension -unsafe.
We must understand that peace is not the ultimate state of static.On the contrary, peace is a continuous process. The two parties need to actively participate, maintain communication, mediate the dispute, and send a signal of peace.The US -China conflict is not inevitable, but if both sides do not work hard and do not help guide the relationship between the two countries in a more sustainable direction, conflicts are likely to occur.(Compiled/Mei Mei)
