Source: China News Agency
Author: Li Xiaoyu
In 2023, the US economy did not fall into a decline as many institutions predicted, but instead recorded strong growth.But whether this "good times" can reproduce next year, it is still uncertain now.
Latest data show that the actual domestic GDP (GDP) in the third quarter of this year calculated an increase of 4.9%at an annual rate, which was significantly accelerated from 2.1%in the second quarter.
Xu Qiyuan, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that if factors such as the elimination of base and inventory disturbance, the economic growth rate of the United States in the third quarter should actually be about 2.5%.But even so, compared with other major developed economies in the same period, this growth rate is still quite strong.
Based on economic data "popularity", the Fed has raised US economic growth in 2023 from 2.1%in September to 2.6%.
Yu Xiangrong, chief economist of Citi Bank Greater China, said that in the case of the Fed's continued radical interest rate hike, the US economy can still achieve rapid growth, mainly due to several factors: the resident department borrows long -term loans at low interest rates at low interest rates.The corporate department also used the previous loose credit conditions to extend the debt period, resulting in not much sensitivity to the changes in interest rates; a large amount of excess savings support the purchasing power and boost consumer confidence; the financial stimulus is also higher than expected.
But the US economy may not be so hot next year.Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that the U.S. economic development and financial environment have undergone significant changes under the influence of the interest rate hike policy.The uplink of interest rates has caused the scale of credit scale, the decline in investment growth, and the slowdown in industrial production, which will also cause suppression to consumption.These situations show that the US economy is cooling.
At present, the US consumption has become cooler.According to US media reports, non -necessary expenditures such as American automobiles, furniture and gym cards began in the fourth quarter of this year, and the holiday shopping atmosphere was not so high.During the "Black Friday" shopping festival, some of the largest chain stores in the United States even declined.
Yu Xiangrong also said that although the U.S. economic momentum is now stable, there are already more and more cooling signals.With the weakening of the excess savings buffer and the government's fiscal deficit will not increase significantly, as the currency tightening effect continues to appear, the US economy will be difficult to become the "exception" when the US economy will become a global economic downturn next year.
According to the OECD (OECD), the US economic growth will slow from 2.4%in 2023 to 1.5%next year, because the Fed's interest rate hike measures will greatly increase the cost of borrowing of consumers and enterprises, which will inhibitEconomic Growth.
But in the opinion of Ding Anhua, chief economist of China Merchants Bank, the United States has a high probability that it is exempted from the economic recession caused by radical interest rate hikes.The US economic growth rate will reach 2%next year, slightly lower than this year.The consumption of strong residents in the early stage may cool down, and weak real estate investment will recover.
Xu Qiyuan said that the "soft landing" of the US economy in 2024 depends on the duration of the current high interest rate and high inflation level in the United States, and this further depends on the international geopolitical situation, and as well asWhether its domestic strike will spread to other industries and have a continuous impact on inflation.
As of mid -December, more than 500,000 people across the United States participated in the strike, far higher than the same period of previous years.Among them, the strike of the United States Workers' United Trade Union, which has the most impact on the economy, directly caused the US GDP growth to be calculated by 0.2%at an annual rate.
It is unknown what kind of trajectory will the US economy coming out next year.However, as the world's largest economy, the US economy and cold and cold will inevitably have an impact on other countries and even the global trade and economy.
OECD believes that the US economy may slow down the pace of growth next year, which is a key factor that leads to slowing global economic growth.The global economic growth rate will slow to 2.7%next year, which means that in 2024 may become the lowest year since 2020.
