Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Lu Yi
Chinese President Xi Jinping is about to visit the United States. He will arrive at San Francisco on November 15 to participate in the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization (APEC) summit, and meet with US President Biden, and meet with senior American business communities.After the meeting of the self -worship, various bumps in Sino -US relations have encountered various bumps. The US government's round of diplomatic offensives have finally contributed to this Xiwai San Francisco meeting.Focusing on San Francisco around the world, the U.S. government also said that it is very careful about the preparations for the Sino -US summit meeting.It can be said that the entire international community is still looking forward to this meeting.So, what is the meeting of this meeting?What is the significance of Sino -US relations?How will Sino -US relations develop in the future?
Sino -US relations enter the fragile stability period
Since former US President Trump defined China as competitors in 2018, Sino -US relations have shocked.The trade war, scientific and technological warfare, and public opinion war have been fighting for five years.Sino -US relations have fallen all the way, and even more and more public opinion is described as "New Cold War".The most significant significance of the San Francisco meeting in this time is that China and the United States may begin to enter a fragile stable period.If you must describe more intuitive, that is, it seems that it will not be broken in the short term.
From the Chairman of the European Commission, Feng Delin, to the US Secretary of State Brills, to the recent tone of Biden, it has indeed changed a lot.At present, the unified tone of the United States is: do not pursue the risk of cooperating with China, instead of being decoupled from China, and pursuing cooperation with China.
In fact, after experiencing confrontation with various aspects of China for five years, both sides are a little fatigue. The geopolitical pressure and domestic economic pressure of the United States are superimposed in the United States.In this way, it can be said that although the inflection point of China -US relations has not appeared in the long run, in the short term, it will maintain a fragile stable stage.
If China and the United States have entered a process of fragile and stable relationships in the short term, then the real relationship with the "younger brothers" and China in the United States will be more promoted.At present, the global geopolitical environment is complex and weak in economic growth. It is in line with the interests of most countries to maintain an economic cooperation window with China.EssenceAfter all, China and the United States are fighting, and all allies in the United States do not want to be cannon fodder.Recently, Feng Delin is about to visit China and Australian Prime Minister Albanis in December. Australian Prime Minister Albanis has completed its visit to China. Japan also expected to talk to Chinese leaders at this APEC summit.of.
Still don't hold too high expectations
So, what exactly does this summit talk about and what can be achieved?Before answering this question, I am afraid that the catalyst that has been clearly promoted.
First of all, the geopolitical pressure in the United States increases.Israel's unlimited attacks on the unpopular attacks of the Gasha area have caused the anger to cause many countries in the world to dissatisfy, and Israel has a significant intention to tie the United States at this stage.On the other side, Ukraine's counterattack has ended with failure.Just last week, in the military aid bill, Ukraine's military assistance agreed to Israel's assistance.The European Union cooperated with the United States to support Ukraine, which has begun to be contrary to yin, and in Israel, there are also obvious differences in Europe and the United States.Therefore, the geopolitical pressure of the United States in the Middle East and Europe has recently increased sharply, and at this time, it has strongly stabilized China.
Secondly, at this stage, it is difficult for Xi Jinping to visit the United States in the United States. The international environment and the relationship between the two countries do not support it. Therefore, it is very important to make a meeting with a certain degree of strategic mutual trust through the APEC summit. This is very important. This is very important.It is the final window period for the United States to access the United States in 2024.Of course, this is mainly determined by the domestic political environment in the United States.2024 is an American election year. Establishing certain mutual trust and communication channels with China is an important window period to ensure that China will not rebound violently in the election year.
The above is the catalytic factor that promotes the worship meeting.It is precisely based on this, and do not hold too much expectations for what can be talked about.However, there may be some changes in some micro levels, especially economic aspects, but the trend of competition between China and the United States will not change much.The reason why not to hold too much expectations is caused by the current national policy of China and the United States.The United States has qualitative China as the only competitors that can challenge the United States in all directions in the future. Chinese issues are the only consensus between the two parties and one of the important means of competitive votes.
Whether it is traditional capital, farm, and even oil behind the Republican Party, or even the urban population behind the Democratic Party and even the immigration population, and the technology and financial capital behind it have deep concerns about the rise of China.And China's national policy is the rise, the upgrading of the industrial chain, and competing for the high point of the global industrial chain. Therefore, the contradictions between China and the United States are in a certain level.Essence
In the face of the United States, the strategy of China's response also said very clearly, "Talk, open the door; to fight, to accompany to the end", so the United States wants to talk, whether there is any result, China is still willing to talk.For China, even if the Bayeng government really promises anything, it cannot be believed.On the one hand, it is as consensus, but the important thing is not what you say, but what you do.On the other hand, because once Biden was defeated in 2024, no matter what Biden promised, the Republican Party must be torn once.So don't have too high expectations for this meeting.
The most worth looking forward to is the problem of tariffs
As for the specific talk, what can you talk about?The first one should be economic.The consideration that the United States can take out at the economic level is mainly tariffs.US trade representative Dai Qi has publicly said that tariffs are the bargaining chips for US negotiations, so here is obviously space.The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in the past two years, and US debt yields have risen all the way. The sales of US debt have become a big problem, which is related to the US financial issues.
If China ’s symbolic buying points of US Treasury bonds, and then the two parties cancel the tariffs, here, optimistic can be expected.After all, the tariff is reduced, which is conducive to the economy of the two sides and helps the United States to control the current inflation, and is favorable to the US debt. This is estimated to be the biggest sincerity that China can come up.Of course, whether it can be achieved, especially the public announcement, it depends on Biden's courage.This is the most anticipated and other core demands of this China -US meeting, which is most likely to achieve consistency relative to other core demands.
Another is for technology blockade.Semiconductor equipment, AI chips, and investment restrictions are actually the core demands of China.However, whether it is Blindenken or Biden, in the previous speech, the statement of scientific and technological blockade is basically a nail on the board, and it is impossible to change.However, the key is that the United States cannot take this road, and technology is completely decoupled on the Chinese technology industry chain.In the first half of the year, the United States further sealed China with Japan, the Netherlands and other countries, and China was unacceptable, so it was countermeasure with raw materials including rare earth.This time, there will be no consensus in scientific and technological blockade, but in terms of further technology decourse, it should be able to prevent the United States from walking too fast.
Beijing will definitely reiterate the position of Beijing in Taiwan and the South China Sea issue again, and Washington may also express the consistent position of official paradigm, but it has always been another thing.Then there is a topic of geopolitics. At this stage, the Russian -Ukraine War and the Palestone War that are still ongoing are bound to be discussed by both sides.But I am afraid that the two sides are more expressions, and I am afraid it is difficult to have consensus.Other aspects are mainly climate and fentanyls. These things have consensus before, which can definitely form a consensus.In addition, the non -governmental exchanges between China and the United States in terms of communication and coordination have been further restored, and the communication channels of military politicsThere may be some changes in mechanisms and smoothly before intersection.
In summary, what can talk about at the first meeting of China and the United States, and basically except for climate, global health, fentanyl control, civil exchanges, and official communication.Cancel tariffs.However, it is the probability of up to half of the official announcement.As for related issues such as science and technology blockade, do not hold any expectations. The two sides have not reached the foundation of consensus. It is very good to be able to upgrade in the short term.
Since 2018, China and the United States have been in the mixed competition of trade war, scientific and technological warfare, and public opinion for five years.In the mid -term, there is no dawn at present. The essential contradiction between China and the United States is difficult to reconcile in the middle and short -term. It is a process of shocking down.However, in the short term, in the context of economic, geopolitics, and global financial environment, China and the United States have a certain space to maintain a fragile stability period.It is a probability event.Of course, even if it is talked about, it does not need to be optimistic. It is not a day or two for the United States.Therefore, even if you talk about this time, you need to be clear that landing is still difficult, and there must be repeated.
