Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao Agency Review
The Mainland China economy not only rebounded after not seeing the epidemic. The exports increased negatively in May. The manufacturing confidence index (PMI) was lower than 50%for three consecutive months. The decline of the real economy affected consumer confidence.US Treasury Secretary Yellen has just ended his visit to China. It is expected that through the results of the meeting of senior financial and economic officials of the two countries, and peeking at whether China and the United States can cooperate in some aspects, it will drive the external environment of improving China's economic development.Although both China and the United States have stated that the talks are "constructive", I am afraid that even the category of climate change, which has the most chance to cooperate, has not seen the dawn of cooperation.
Export -demand consumption is now fatigue and the external environment is not good for exports.
China has a good economic opening at the beginning of this year, and international financial institutions have also raised China's economic growth rate expectations. However, since May, the economic trend has reversed, and exports have shown rare negative growth over the years. Although it has only dropped slightly slightly by 0.8,A percentage point, and the cumulative export of the first five months still increased by 8.1%, but looking at the data carefully, the situation is not optimistic.From the perspective of exported products, the growth rate of products with the same proportion, such as mobile phones, aluminum and steel, weakened, and consumer goods such as clothing such as clothing have increased negative growth. Although the increase and proportion of automobile parts and automobile parts have been accelerated, whether a single show can support the total export total exports.The amount of quantity continues to grow, which is worrying.
From the perspective of exported areas, the European Union and the United States are still the best, and the EU has become the largest share in May, but the inflation in these two regions is high, and the purchasing power will further decline.The ASEAN (Asia Jiajian) country with a large export share is mainly exported from China to the United States and the United States, and the European and American markets are weakly imported from China. The European and American markets are weak. ASEAN (Asia Jia'an) will be maintained from China's decline in imports from China.
Export drives economic growth is only one of the three -headed carriages, but domestic investment and consumption data also lacks stamina.In the first five months, the investment in fixed assets increased by only 4%, and the growth rate fell slightly by 0.7 percentage points slightly than the first 4 months.The problem is that local governments have poor financial conditions. In the past, the land sales revenue that was deeply dependent on was not as good as before. Civil servants even had to "vomit" bonuses that had been issued in previous years.The huge expenses are just a lot of money. In some places, government engineering has not been able to pay the project funds as scheduled.
The total retail sales of consumer goods in the first five months increased by 9.3%, but this data does not include two largest durable products. The sales area of commercial housing during the same period decreased by 0.9%, and real estate investment that reflects future market confidence increased by 7.2%.The production and sales of cars are very gratifying, and the year -on -year growth has reached 11%, but this mainly relies on new energy vehicles to sell. The reason for the significant increase is that the central government has extended the subsidy period.
Consumption confidence and private investment confidence depends on the expectations of future income. When consumers are concerned about work stability or wage growth, private enterprises have insufficient confidence in the future market, and spending money and investment will hesitate.
The central government has launched an emergency mechanism. Prime Minister Li Qiang held a seminar on the Economic Situation to hear the opinions and suggestions of 6 civil experts and scholars on the current economic situation and improvement of the economy.At the same time, the financial instrument box is opened, and the depreciation of the RMB will increase the competitiveness of export products, but it will not affect the inflation and purchasing power of Europe and the United States.
The haze of the international environment in the Ukraine War, and the economic structure of European and American countries, has led to high inflation. Although the economic outlook for the Economic Cooperation Development Organization (OECD) in June, it is expected to increase the global economy this year.The previous 2.6%was raised to 2.7%. The international economic environment seems to be pessimistic, but it will be more or less affected by the small environment of China's economic and trade environment.
Yelunkou talks about the common prosperity of China and the United States, the United States continues to curb China's unchanged
Yellen, who is in charge of the Ministry of Finance, is considered a more friendly person in the US government's cabinet to China, and relies on professional and practical analysis.Eagle's Shalvin and Daiqi.Regardless of international public opinion and Chinese officials, it is already a "meritorious merit" for Yelun's visiting China to improve economic and trade relations or even reduce sanctions.It can indeed reduce misjudgments, but the actual practice of the United States is still "talking while talking", sanctioning China has continued to increase, and the attitude of cooperation is also lacking sincerity.
Yellen ended his visit to China. The consistent statement of the two parties was: "In -depth, frank, and pragmatic exchanges on the situation of economic and financial situations of the two countries and the world's economic and financial situations, cooperation, and cooperation, and the talks are constructive." Originally, the most likely to reach a consensus on climate change in cooperation with cooperation to deal with common challenges around the world.Recently, extreme weather has erupted globally, becoming a topic of common, and global cooperation response is urgent.However, the United States suggested that China joins the Green Climate Fund (GCF) led by the United States. It is also the meaning of joining the international cooperation organization in China.The benefits are low standards. China is invisible to pay the price but it is difficult to listen to the United States. This is difficult for a strong man.
In recent years, China has repeatedly innovated in environmental protection and energy -saving products, and the price is low. The use of drones or unmanned boats to monitor climate change and environmental protection law enforcement, which is very effective.However, the United States has continued to obstruct the influence of China's exports of these products in large quantities of China to increase its opportunity to increase its influence on geopolitics.China accused the United States that "generalized national security" for economic and trade issues was unreasonable.
There are many factors in China's economic downturn, and the central government is urgently needed to respond in all aspects. It will also try its best to improve the external environment, but it does not rely on the convergence of the United States.Although Yellen summarizes the central China, borrowing Chinese leaders said that the world's big can tolerate the common prosperity of China and the United States, but it is certain that the policy of curbing China's rise through various means will not change.Essence
