Japan's Sankei Shimbun reported on June 29 that the Japanese government decided to adjust the focus of foreign policy in the second half of the year to stable bilateral relations with China.At the same time, the Japanese Prime Minister Kishita Hyoshi also hopes to get the opportunity to directly dialogue between the senior management of both sides to promote breakthroughs in Sino -Japanese relations.The statement of this news report is also expressed by Kishida himself some time ago. It is hoped that to maintain close communication with China at all levels, and will consider confirming each other's claims.Does this mean that the focus of Japanese diplomatic work will have major adjustments?
Diplomacy is an extension of internal affairs.From the perspective of domestic level, Kishida is likely to hold a general election in advance in order to allow himself to obtain more political resources and help the Presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party in September in the next year.However, due to the data security of the personal number card, and the eldest son Kishida Taro abuse the scandal of power, the support rate of Kishida Cabinet has declined significantly.The support rate of continuous decline made Kishida's difficulty to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election in advance.In addition, although the political pattern established by Japan in 1955, since the "five -five -year system" (compilation, that is, the establishment of the Liberal Democratic Party's long -term governance and the stable political state of the Socialist Party in the wild party)"The advantages exist for a long time, and the decline in support is difficult to develop subversive changes to the dominant position.However, there are many different factions within the internal of the Liberal Democratic Party. The decline in Kishida's support rate will lead to weakening their discourse rights in the party to a certain extent, which will affect the stability of the Liberal Democratic Party's internal faction.
In the case of severe and complicated domestic situation, choosing to focus on attack in the field of diplomacy is undoubtedly an excellent option for Kishida Cabinet to boost national confidence and increase support rates.With the help of the 45th anniversary of the conclusion of the China -Japan Peace and Friendship Treaty, properly developing bilateral relations with China has become the focus of Japanese diplomacy.
But it should be noted that the so -called diplomatic focus steering with obvious utilitarian orientation proposed by the Japanese government does not mean that Japanese diplomacy will have substantial changes in the future.
The reason is that Japanese diplomacy has a strong continuity.After the Japanese defeat surrendered and re -established the "Yoshidaism" with the three principles of developing economy, minimum military reserve and military expenses, and the three principles of the United States, Japan's diplomacy has never been able to bypass the US factors.Whether it is the 2023 diplomatic blue book released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan or in the 2023 policy brochure released by the Liberal Democratic Party, the Japan -US alliance is the basis of the Japan -US alliance is the basis for Japan's diplomatic and security policies, and hopes to further deepen this alliance relationship.
On this basis, Japan tried to cooperate with the "Allies" and "Comrade State" to carry out common actions, and the so -called "free opening of Indo -India" proposed is actually the Japanese version of "anti -China curved arc".
In addition, Sino -Japanese relations are "political cold menstruation" for many years.Focusing on historical problems, the East China Sea, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the Taiwan Straits and Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, human rights issues, and the discharge of nuclear wastewater, there are major conflicts in China and Japan.More importantly, Sino -Japanese relations have the risk of landslide towards the relationship between "Zheng Cold Calligraphy".
In the field of high -tech, Japan followed the United States and set out to build a "barriers to China technology".For example, starting from July 23, the Japanese government will formally implement measures for export control measures for semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Including 23 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, including lithography, etching, thermal treatment, cleaning, and testing. When exporting to mainland China, it is necessary to obtain a permit from the Ministry of Economic and Industry of Japan.This behavior of restricting high -performance semiconductor manufacturing equipment on the grounds of "economic security" will also have a certain impact on Sino -Japanese relations, and to conclude the 45th anniversary of the China -Japan Peace and Friendship Treaty, adding discordant factors to add discordant factorsEssence
In the case of existing "spots", these goodwill released by high -level Japanese high -levels will cause the Chinese side to have corresponding doubts, and doubt whether the Japanese side sincerely wants to build a "constructive and stable mediumJapanese relations.Obviously, from this perspective, it is difficult for Sino -Japanese relations to improve substantial improvement.
In September 2022, the Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi made it clear at the opening ceremony of commemorating the 50th anniversary of the normalization of China -Japan diplomatic relations.The original intention and the responsibility ... The two parties should reflect the political consensus of "mutual partners and not constitutes a threat to each other" to policies., Not partial.
Japan's 2023 diplomatic blue book proposed that in order to maintain peace and security in Japan and regions, it is necessary to directly cope with difficult problems with neighboring countries and establish a stable relationship.Since Kishida Cabinet wants to improve bilateral relations with China, and is also going to turn the focus of diplomatic work in the second half of the year to the relationship between China, we need to come up with the determination and corresponding actions, rather than just staying at the appeal level, otherwise it will be in the middle.Japanese relations will not stop falling and recover. On the contrary, it will further deteriorate, and regional peace and stability will also face challenges.
The author is an assistant researcher at Chengdu Sendong Research Institute
