Liang Haiming: Will the United States launch a financial war against mainland China an

Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Liang Haiming

Hong Kong recently pointed out that the risk of financial warfare in the international situation is difficult to eliminate, and China must prepare for war to reduce its dependence on the US dollar.This article takes only the financial war that the United States has launched to Iran as an example. It explores how the United States will take the financial war in mainland China and Hong Kong, and what ways will it adopt, how should mainland China and Hong Kong be guarded.

The US financial war against Iran is a field that occurs in most people invisible and invisible.The US financial weapons built by the US government, Wall Street and the US dollar, through cutting off the capital chain of Iran and restricting Iran's U.S. dollars, in order to create Iran's economic and people's livelihood in order to trigger Iranian political instability and even subvert its regime.

The United States Create Iran with two rounds of financial war

The first financial offensive launched by the United States to Iran is to cut off the capital chain of Iran.As we all know, exporting oil is the main source of economic income in Iran. Although European and American countries have implemented oil embargo on Iran in the past, Iran can still obtain revenue by stealing oil to other countries.However, because the world's oil trade is settled in the US dollar, and the settlement of oil transactions must be settled by the Money Center Bank on the Wall Street (Money Center Bank, the borrowing object is the government, institutions and other banks, not consumers' international international UniversityBank), New York Federal Reserve Bank is completed.Therefore, any information related to oil transactions in Iran has no privacy to the United States as long as it is traded in the US dollar.

Former US President Trump has previously decided to dispatch financial weapons to deal with Iran, the US government has requested the Monetary Center Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the first half of 2018 to "refuse to deal with Iran", otherwise these banks will be banned from being in the banks.American business.With a order in the United States, major banks naturally cooperate.This is because the world's financial system is still dominated by the United States today. Whether international banks can continue to start business in the United States are a matter of life and death.

The US move reduced the exports of crude oil by Iran at the time by more than 80%, cutting off most of Iran's capital chain.This has a great impact on Iran's government budget. Because Iran's crude oil reserves account for about 10%of global oil reserves, more than 40%of the government's fiscal expenditures have obtained huge funds through crude oil. Iran's economy is seriously dependent on the oil industry.

The United States launched the second round of financial war against Iran in November 2018. At that time, the US Ministry of Finance publicly warned the Global Bank of Financial Communications Association (SWIFT) to provide services to the sanctioned banks and financial institutions.Otherwise, even Swift will be punished.The United States's move was to limit the use of US dollars in Iran (during the Russian -Ukraine conflict, the United States also sacrificed the disable SWIFT to Russia).

Because more than 10,000 banks in the world have more than 200 banks from more than 200 different countries access SWIFT, this fund settlement system has a cross -border transaction covering most of the world's denominations in the world.Swift blockade cannot be remitted or charged through the system. It not only restricts Iran's use of the US dollar, but also indirectly deprives Iran's right to participate in the US dollar as the main body of international trade, thus causing Iranian economy.

Under this round of financial weapons in the United States, in the field of foreign trade, because Iran's import and exporters can no longer receive US dollars, it is difficult for Iranian products to import and export.In Iran, the foreign exchange market has been greatly impacted. Due to the lack of confidence in Iran's currency Riyal, under the help of international speculators, it not only caused a large amount of funds to escape, but also caused foreign companies and people in Iran to buy foreign exchange crazy to avoid foreign exchange to avoid foreign exchange avoidance.Dangerous, which led to the sharp depreciation of the exchange rate of Iran's currency Riar on the US dollar.The sharp depreciation of the currency is Iran's severe inflation. As Iran's prices have risen sharply, the actual income and purchasing capabilities of the public have continued to decline. In addition, Iran's domestic unemployment rate has caused the lives of most Iranian people to become increasingly difficult.And strong dissatisfaction with the Iranian government.

Public data show that the US financial war hit the economy of Iran at that time. The growth rate of GDP in Iran was about 5%in 2017, and the growth rate of GDP in 2018 rapidly declined to a negative increase of 4.9%., Iran's GDP continued to increase negatively by 2.7%in 2019.

Two "routines" of the US financial war

It can be seen from the example of Iran. If the United States decides to launch a financial war on its country, one of the "routines" is to sing the country in public opinion or cause disputes around the country, which will cause the situation to be unstable, and then induce the situation, and then induce itMore capital escaped from the abroad, which led to a sharp decline in the currency exchange rate of the country and achieved the purpose of disturbing the country's social stability and economic stability.

At the same time, the U.S. government destroys the country's financial market by cutting off its capital chain and even prohibiting its use of US dollars (whether it is against Iran, or Russia, and the United States has sacrificed for disable SWIFT's tricks).For countries that have been attacked by financial, due to the full hit by the social, economic and financial markets, it is easy to cause political instability.

This sanction not only brings political instability, but also the damage to the people of the target country is also extremely cruel.Research data shows that, in addition to Iran, former US President Trump's sanctions on Venezuela have led to excess death of 40,000 people from 2017 to 2018.US sanctions have also killed hundreds of thousands of children in Iraq.Public data shows that the number of foreign people due to sanctions caused by sanctions, exceeding the sum of all war deaths after World War II!

Just as former US Secretary of State Kissinger once said that "controlling currency can control the world's economy."The United States is very skilled in attacking other countries through the US dollar as a financial weapon.If in the future, in order to attack mainland China and Hong Kong, the US government does not rule out a sudden crisis of manufacturing in mainland China and Hong Kong. For example, on the one hand, it can be in the commodity market.The price of commodities such as food, consumed China's foreign exchange reserves, combat China's RMB exchange rate, and triggered a large number of funds from China and Hong Kong.On the other hand, Wall Street cooperates with the US government to further attack the stock markets, property markets and currencies of mainland China and Hong Kong through the devaluation of the RMB and a large retreat of foreign capital, thereby destroying the stability of the financial market in mainland China and Hong Kong.

Once the United States is exclusive to the United States, the United States itself is also injured

As for whether the United States is likely to exclude mainland China and Hong Kong on Swift?It is believed that it does not allow mainland China and Hong Kong to use the SWIFT system, which is difficult to use many times higher than that of Iran and Russia.

First of all, although the U.S. government can theoretically prohibit the use of US dollars in Mainland China and Hong Kong for transactions, thereby fighting the supply of funds in mainland China and Hong Kong.The international circulation of the US dollar internationally is not only not conducive to the international community's demand for the US dollar and the stability of currency value, but also will seriously endanger the strategic interests of the United States.

Secondly, bank remittances belong to the intermediate business. Even if the US government eliminates the SWIFT system in mainland China and Hong Kong, other banks are forced to undergo the pressure from the United States to prevent banks in mainland China and Hong Kong.It is just frozen instructions from mainland China and Hong Kong banks in other banks, instead of confiscating it.

And, it is really the situation of "negative" between China and the United States. I believe that in order to avoid risks in advance in advance, banks in mainland China and Hong Kong will abandon the US dollar and switch to other international currencies such as the euro and yen.The international community is further isolated, and the wave of the US dollar will be more intense.After all, the United States relies on charging a coinage tax from the world, that is, a large number of Indo -US dollars and allowing the world to use the US dollar to come to the worldThose who develop their own, the cost of producing a hundred dollars of dollars in the U.S. coinage bureau is only a few cents, but in other countries to get a hundred dollars of dollars, it must provide a real product and service that is equivalent to $ 100 (about S $ 135).EssenceThis is the benefit of the so -called coin tax of international currencies.Essence

Therefore, if the United States eliminates the SWIFT system in mainland China and Hong Kong, it is not only seriously injured in mainland China and Hong Kong, but also the US's own economic interests.

Third aspect, as a global financial communication system, Bank of China is also a member of the Council of SWIFT.It is more difficult to expel China to prevent China from using the SWIFT system to use the SWIFT system.After all, SWIFT now has an office in Shanghai, China, and provides services to Greater China. It is difficult for SWIFT to abandon the huge market opportunity of Greater China.

And, as the world's second largest economy, China has become the largest trading partner in more than 120 countries and regions such as the European Union, Japan, and India.Once you leave Swift, most countries are expected to establish a better system with China for transactions.

Only if you can carry the financial war, you will have the opportunity to reduce the gap between China and the United States

In addition, as Iran and Russia have been removed from Swift, it has caused concerns about other countries. More and more countries have continuously increased the settlement of RMB in the field of trade in China.CIPS) interest is increasing.As long as the principle of not being decoupled from the global system is closely grasped and attracting more countries to join the CIPS, it can continue to expand the strength of the RMB, further promote the internationalization of the RMB, and gradually offset the impact brought by the US dollar hegemony.

Faced with the aggressive financial offensive of the US government, it is believed that the Central Government of China and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government have been highly vigilant, pay close attention to the financial field, strengthen supervision, plan ahead, and prevent systemic financial crisis.In the long run, only with the financial war of the United States, can we have the opportunity to further reduce the financial gap between China and the United States, and break the American attempts to curb the comprehensive curb of mainland China and Hong Kong.

The author is the dean of the Silk Road Zhigu Research Institute.The Silk Road Zhigu Research Institute is a public policy research institution composed of well -known Chinese and foreign scholars, focusing on research on the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area, Belt and Road, and macroeconomics.