Source: Ming Pao
Author: Wang Jiahao
At the time of the counterattack in Ukraine, a mercenary rebellion suddenly occurred within Russia last Saturday, triggering global attention.The rebellion started late last Friday. The Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group's head of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused the Russian army of fighting his troops, and caused more than 2,000 people to die.Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.
However, the Russian Ministry of Defense immediately issued a statement to deny the allegations, and then the Federal Security Agency (FSB) sued Porigen for inciting armed rebellion.In the early morning of the next day, Perigo claimed that the Wagner forces had controlled the military facilities of Rostov-on-Don, a city in southwestern Russia, and even threatened to wave to Moscow.In response, the Moscow Municipal Government announced the implementation of the counter -terrorism system and closed all the main roads to the Russian capital.
In the national television speech at 10 am on the 24th, Russian President Putin stated that Wagner's rebellion was a rebellious behavior and a knife behind the country. He promised to punish all the rebels.Lai Belarus President Luchenko was medtered, and Pryigon suddenly ordered the Wagner forces to return to the base, claiming that he would avoid causing life.The Kremlin then stated that Perigon would go to Belarus, and his criminal prosecution with Wagner would be revoked.
What is the main cause and fuse of the incident in the 36 -hour rebellion?What is the far -reaching impact of Wagner's rebellion on the Russian political situation and the Russian and Ukraine War?
The struggle between the mercenary and the regular army is hot
According to the US Congress Research Office, the Wagner Group is Russia's most famous mercenary organization, achieving foreign goals for Russia with informal channels and expanding influence to all over the world.It first emerged in the Syrian civil war. It also assisted Russia to annex Crimea and invades Donbas, East Ukraine, and provides services to African countries such as the Republic of China, Libya and Sudan.Under the Russian legal framework, the Wagner Group is an illegal organization and is not affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense, but its head of Pleigor is closely linked to Ke Palace and was accused of directly instructions from President Putin.
After the Russian and Ukraine War was not as good as Russia's expectations and the Russian army failed to achieve key goals, the status of the Wagner Group was increasing, leading to its increasing competition and conflict with the Ministry of National Defense.In the early days of the war, the Wagner troops mainly dispatched small -scale but well -trained troops to assist the Russian army to fight.With the continuity of the Russian army's performance, Wagner has expanded the scale of participation in the war since last year, including trying to occupy Bakhmut, Wudong Town.In the middle of last month, Porigen announced that his troops occupied Bachmut, making him famous in the country, and jumped into the fifth largest trusted politician in Russia (with former President Medvedev and the Communist Chairman Jiu GanovovTwo), all because he brought the "victory" to Russia.
Through the relatively effective military performance of the Wagner Group, Perigo asked for more political chips in China. As a result, the dissatisfaction of the military and other governance elites, and even caused an open inner puppet.Although the Wagner Group is independent of the Ministry of National Defense, it still relies on the logistics and artillery support of the Russian army.As early as February of this year, Pryigon was open but not named the Ministry of Defense's detention of ammunition materials, resulting in serious restrictions on its troops.
No effect in the image of Putin's "arbitrator"
At the end of last month, Pryigo's altogether threatened to evacuate the Wagner troops from Bachmut, thereby asking the Ministry of Defense to provide them with sufficient ammunition.The latest fascination line was announced earlier this month that the mercenary organization, including the Wagner Group, signed a contract and included in the army before July to give them a formal legal status.Pricigen is convinced that this move is designed to cut off his influence, but the Ministry of Defense's policy has been publicly supported by Putin because it can ensure the social welfare guarantee of mercenaries.
From this point of view, Wagner rebelled into the result of the Russian elite fighting, and Perigo's move was based on his believe that he had been forced to the corner and could only save his political life in extreme ways.Although the "Putin model" allows or even encourages elites to compete with each other to avoid any party's sitting and pose a threat to Ke Palace.According to Kommersant, Putin had intervened in the conflict between the Wagner Group and the Ministry of Defense, but it was never possible to avoid the occurrence of this rebellion, I am afraid that he did not give Perig's enough steps to step down.
The abnormal calm of Moscow
On the day of Wagner's rebellion, the author was in Moscow, the Russian capital, but had a very different experience with the outside world.Different from the enthusiastic response from the outside world, local citizens seem to be relatively calm and try to maintain everything, and the municipal government also seems unwilling to affect their daily life too much.In the southwestern region where the author lives, pedestrians and vehicles on the streets obviously become sparse than usual, but all stores still maintain normal operation.During the dusk of the day, based on the purchase of tickets and the Ministry of Culture, the Ministry of Culture did not cancel the indoor performance. The author still went to the city center, and the Moscow Grand Theater at the red field to watch ballet performances. The courtyard is still bustling, which is really surprising.On the way to the subway, it happened that the mayor of Moscow publicly urged residents to avoid going out, but the car was already surging, and there were no police and soldiers alert at the city center subway station.
In terms of receiving information, in addition to playing Putin's national speech in the morning and listing the Ministry of National Defense Statement, the largest TV station "Channel One" in Russia rarely mentioned Wagner's rebellion all day.Relatively speaking, viewing the Telegram channel can effectively obtain more real -time and accurate information, especially the posts are generally attached with photos and fragments. Therefore, the traffic on the platform doubled more than usual.Incidentally, Russian officials have stated that they will restrict network use, and the author's use of VPN (virtual special network) on that day is indeed affected.
Moscow's market conditions are extremely calm, as if there is a parallel time and space, and it is by no means a brief interpretation of "believing in the government, not afraid".Many people have an indifferent attitude towards Wagner's rebellion, and they are in line with the situation of the Russian and Ukraine War. They mostly belong to the middle class or have liberal thoughts, and only hope that life can be as usual.Some people in Moscow also think of elite power fighting and rebellion. If you are slightly older, he will recall the picture of the Russian constitutional crisis and the Boom Moscow White House in 1993. The in the city has appeared several times in the city in recent months.New normal.Those who have a close mind may understand that the rebellion has limited threats to Moscow. After all, the Wagner troops are far inferior to the Russian army, and Moscow has strictly defense and closed all the main roads that enter the city.On the other hand, Moscow will usher in a mayor of the mayor in September this year, so I believe that the municipal government is also reluctant to implement too many restrictions to prevent public opinion rebound.
Russia in the era of rebellion
As Priggore arrives in Belarus and the Wagner Force will be included in the Russian army, it will no longer exist. The real -time security threat of Moscow has been lifted.In the final analysis, the prestige of Putin regime after the rebellion suffered a serious impact, because the system he established was the most important loyalty, but Pryigo who betrayed him could not be punished and was safely guaranteed.Different from the decisive image of his act, Putin appeared to make a change of the Wagner rebellion, and then delivered a TV speech for two days after the incident calmed down, and personally explained the ins and outs of the people.At the same time, Putin gradually could not fulfill his commitment to bring stability and order to Russia.
Three years ago, Putin amended the constitution to pave the way for his sustainable governance. However, he could imagine that the Russian and Ukraine War not only brought his long -term governance aura, but also eventually shaken to his presidential position?With the presidential election next year, the editor -in -chief of the Russian Independence (Nezavisimaya Gazeta)Konstantin Remchukov expects that the Russian elite will re -examine whether it should continue to rely on Putin, or consider changing people who can deal with problems in a more modern way.However, if this is true, Putin will find one more reason to persuade himself to continue the war in Ukraine to ensure his political security.
The author is a doctoral student at the National College of International Relations of Moscow, and the Russian Empire Dream Author of Puding (co -izel with Luo Jinyi)
