Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Theory
2024 Taiwan election is close, election offensive and defense returns to major financial issues -whether to restart the Cross -Strait Economic Cooperation Architecture Agreement (ECFA) negotiation, including "service trade" (cross -strait service trade agreement) and "cargo trade"Cross -Strait goods trade agreement)?After Ke Wenzhe's throwing the topic, it caused the green camp to be encirclement. Hou Youyi did not lose his strength, and the war was hot.Many people in Taiwan do not know the relationship between ECFA, trade and trade, and service trade, and do not understand what is related to the economy of Taiwan; I heard that the DPP said that he would locked the economy into the "one middle" and allowed 4 million white -collar workers to be work by mainland China by mainland China.People snatched, of course panic.However, is this really the case?We are calm and calm to analyze "service trade".
After 2000, the World Trade Organization (WTO) promoted the blockage of trade liberalization, and the "Free Trade Agreement" (FTA) boom in the world has emerged.EssenceAt present, there are basically FTAs between East Asian economies, and the exemption tariffs and service markets of goods trade are sharply opened. Only Taiwan and North Korea and Mongolia are very few exceptions. Taiwan ’s export growth momentum has also fallen into the last class of East Asia in the last class of East Asia.But most people are unclear.
FTAs internationally, except for "Yajia'an-China", are integrated with the integration of goods, trade, service and trade, and completing the signing at a time; and because it is the result of bargaining, they are all "parcel voting" and have no voting one by one.of.The ECFA on both sides of the strait currently has only the "architecture agreement", which comes with the "early collection list", covering only 5%of Taiwan's export projects and very few service industries.Cargo and trade and trade are the main connotation of ECFA. After the signing of the trade, the legislative house failed to take effect, and the goods and trade had not yet begun, which was increasingly not good for Taiwan's competition in the mainland market.
Taiwan and the mainland's political confrontation, which has been failed to sign more FTAs by the mainland, has caused only the high -tech electronics industry in Taiwan ’s manufacturing industry due to its high international demand, and the“ Information Technology Agreement ”(ITA) has exempted tariffs and exempt tariffs.A unique show; other manufacturing exports still have to pay tariffs, coupled with high labor costs, resulting in a large number of outs or shrinking. The manufacturing structure is deformed and lacks toughness, which is more sensitive to the global prosperity cycle.
The service industry is even greater.The two sides of the strait have previously opened up labor -intensive service industries, such as the "wholesale and retail industry", "catering industry", which can represent the service industry., Design, Law, Counselor, Medical, Education, E -commerce and other industries are highly controlled and difficult to enter. Only through the service trade agreement and open the market to get "market access".
Taiwan's service industry is fiercely competitive, and the number of small and medium -sized entrepreneurs in the service industry will quickly increase to 1.2833,000 in 2021 from the "Sun Flower Student Games";The SMEs of the Wanjia service industry are established. The enterprise is small in scale, and it is difficult to invest in equipment for digital transformation. The productivity is low and the failure rate is extremely high, which also makes it difficult for salary to increase rapidly.In 2013, the average monthly salary of the wholesale and retail industry was 3,000 yuan (NT $ 130), and it would be 8,000 yuan behind 2022.Xie Changtai, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at the University of Chicago Business School, recently pointed out that the problem is that the average scale of the service industry is too small to invest in R & D and equipment improvement, and it is difficult to improve productivity and salary.If the service trade with the other side can enter the mainland market on a large scale, the scale can be expanded, capable of developing innovation and investment equipment, and productivity and salary can increase rapidly.
But the FTA must "open up" the market. Green Camp has always "guarded" the relatively weak economy in terms of policy. In addition, the intention of "decoupled" with mainland China, it will cause a large number of land enterprises to attack a large number of land enterprises at low salary attacks.Terrace, causing a lot of unemployment.In fact, Taiwan has already opened up half of the service market, including wholesale and retail industry, and not many land companies dare to invest in, because it is difficult to compete with Taiwan, and there are many people who have returned.In fact, as long as the national security facilities are matched in the "Service Trade 2.0" and limited the number of people to Taiwan with "total amount control", you can fundamentally replenish the gap of "Service Trade 1.0" to make the people completely rest assured.
When promoting the "Service Trade 1.0" that year, the Kuomintang lightly rivals due to the ECFA architecture agreement, and the failure to learn the "black box" in Europe and the United States to make a slight light transparent light and the outside world "communication", which caused insufficient communication to cause "the sun to finally" the sun"Flower Xueyun" and shelved.To restart the service trade, there must be Zhou Yan's planning, supporting facilities, and governments with executive power to persuade the public to support it.The service industry in Taiwan cannot continue, and "Service Trade 2.0" can be discussed well.
