Yan Mo: Does India have the ability to surpass China?

Source: China Times

Author: Yan Mo

In June, U.S. President Biden used an unprecedented courtesy with the "All -Su Guo Ban" to receive the visiting Indian Prime Minister Modi.EssenceThe script is written like this: Sino -U.S. Games, the United States lost in the Middle East, to be recovered from India.

This is a big topic -when the world goes multi -polarized, can India maintain the advantage of single -pole hegemony for the United States?Or, India is using the historical opportunities of Sino -US confrontation to establish one of the roles in the multi -pole world?

The contradictions that the United States falls into is: If Laraka becomes one of the poles of the world, how can we maintain a single hegemony?The trap pointed to this contradiction is that the single hegemony has been concluded because the United States uses the method that contributes to the polar world to maintain the single hegemony.To get rid of this paradox trap, Washington only after India has successfully weakened China, the United States picked up other medium power to India.

Therefore, under the support of the United States, whether India can get the ability to surpass China has become the main focus of strategic observers.

Of course, serious observer will not look at the problem like this, because the United States does not need it, and even alert India to surpass China. It only needs India to weaken China.I also think so, but "friendly to China" also contributed to China's rise and formed an unprecedented threat in the eyes of Washington.In other words, it is not easy to control the "degree" of a large country. Therefore, the above -mentioned big questions are still established. Can India surpass China?

The attitude towards China during the Cold War was similar. Although the current American political and business community has the voice of beautifying India, it also opposes India's volume.In short, the "US -India School" emphasizes the market of 1.4 billion people, and the fact that the rapid growth of GDP (GDP) in India. In contrast, the "rebellion" uses more delicate data to give India is India is it.Early warning such as "can't support Adou".

The following "anti -India" is the main argument:

1. Indian human rights are not good.

2. The current unemployment rate in India has risen significantly (compared to before the epidemic).

3. 14 times the population, India's exports are still comparable to Vietnam.

4. Local investors have no confidence in the government and tend to transfer profits overseas.

5. The middle class has not grown up with GDP.

6. Private investment decline.

7. Gender discrimination affects employment structure.

8. Crony Capitalism (Crony Capitalism) makes the internal distribution extremely uneven, and it also makes a large number of domestic funds timid investment and expansion, because it is not sure whether it will be reorganized in politics.

9. Follow -ups are unstable, the privileges are rampant, which affects the development of domestic and foreign capital.

10. Modi is diligent in investing in the economy, and it is too unequal to invest in the people of the people.

11. Severe air pollution is hindered to productivity.

12. The turbulent concern of nationalism.

These arguments cannot be said to be all right, because the above is mainly from the picked stabbing of the human rights organization, but it is roughly in line with the truth. After all, the stubborn illness within India has long been the consensus of the business community.Enterprise, don't know how many.

Indeed, in the early days of the rise of the poor country, there was a commonality, that is, corruption, and privileges. This can be said to be the must -have process of industrialization, and China is no exception.However, compared with Beijing, New Delhi has a systematic terminal illness, that is, the regime is unstable, the policy is difficult to make long -term planning, and the background is the root of class and ethnic issues, which will change the Indian regime., Not to clear the disadvantages.

From another perspective, the Western criticism of Modi's Hindu nationalism is actually an important factor in India's rise, that is, using most of the dictatorships with a large number of pushes to maintain the stability of the regime.

Therefore, India claims to be the largest democratic country in the world.Without talking about others, he said that Biden, who is now "licking,", was explicitly criticized India's human rights record several times when he was running for president.

In other words, in the process of controlling India in the future, carrots and sticks will be available. The so -called big stick is to fight the Democratic emptiness of India, coup, and color revolution. As long as Indian political executives are disobedient, sticks will say helloEssenceCompared with Sino -US relations since the 1970s, it is very strange.

When the United States pleased China, it was before and after the Cold War. China was very poor and did not pose a threat. The United States believed in free tradeism. It was believed that it could use market forces to change the Chinese political system, so there was nothing worth mentioning.But now, the United States wants to support it is the fifth largest economy in the world, and it has abandoned free tradeism and pursued protectionism.The heart is higher than the past.In general, the grinding period of the United States and India will be far longer than the Sino -US cooperation.

The American treasure that India wants is technology and Aiyan supply chain. The United States does selectively provide these two benefits, but the key "market access", the United States can’t afford it now, and doesn’t want to give it.This will make India benefit visible ceiling.

Furthermore, India wants to catch up with China's manufacturing capabilities. The prerequisite for talents is talent and diligence workers, but in terms of education and nationality, India basically does not support all -round industrial development like China.It will be found that it is far more troublesome than the benefits to attract India.

The United States' fear of China has three main points: collectivism, technological progress, autonomous and stable regime.In these three points, Japan has the first two points, so it is targeted; India is not at all. Although it is the main reason for the United States to please, it is also a clear proof that India can surpass China.

It needs to be explained that India's politics is not stable, but the Modi government is the most stable government in previous years; India also believes in unclearism and strives to express autonomy.It should be described as the current India.However, the United States has the confidence that India will let India's autonomy in exchange for the advantages of rapid development. After all, unlike China's closed political system, Indian politics "opens" is far more than China, and the difficulty of seeing seams is not so high.

American scholar Graham Allison, an American scholar who proposes the trap of Xunxidd, has also reserved India's views. From several major India's major weaknesses, although Elison wants India to rise, I dare not say too muchFull.

Personal point of view, if the United States has not posted it, India is a chance, but as soon as the Americans come, India is over.At present, the United States is secretly supporting Modi's competitor Rahul Gandhi as a containment of the Modi regime.Just this can be confirmed that India cannot surpass China because it is fatal to be American friends.

In any case, India is an existence that cannot be ignored in geopolitics. The United States and India cooperation may have a certain impact on the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea issue.

The author writes freelance