Comment: What are the toolboxes for the stable exchange rate of the Peoples Bank

Source: Bloomberg

The RMB in the shore is nearly ten years near the 7.3 yuan (RMB, the same below, the same, about 1.37 yuan).Wuyun tops the top, but for the Central Bank of China, which holds a variety of stable exchange rate tools, these factors are still difficult to form severe challenges.

As the offshore RMB overnight fell nearly 7.27 yuan, the intermediate price on Thursday (June 29) was the largest than the forecast of more than seven months.EssenceAt the same time, at the official close of 16:30 this week, Da Bank sold the US dollar to assist the closing price of the US dollar.The market is paying close attention to how the central bank's exchange rate policy tools will be combined in the future, and whether the official will introduce more strong stimulus policies to boost the economy.

Pan Gongsheng, director of the China Foreign Exchange Bureau, also stated at the Lujiazui Forum in early June that "Over the years, we have accumulated a lot of experience in dealing with external shocks, and the foreign exchange market macro -prudential policy tools are also richer.Be able to maintain the stable operation of the foreign exchange market. "

Compared with previous years, the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate has been significantly improved. After the sharp depreciation of this year, the market supply and mentality of the market have not been unbalanced. The regulatory layers have not taken more tough derogatory measures.Pan Gongsheng said that when the current foreign exchange market supervisors face market changes, they are more calm, more calm and more mature.

The following is a list of tools available for foreign exchange regulators in China:

middle price

The People's Bank of China can restrict the scope of fluctuations on the right time of the period through the RMB at 9:15 am each trading day at 9:15 am.Since 2014, this scope of restrictions has been expanded to 2%of the middle price.

At the same time, after the reform of the middle price formation mechanism in 2015, its principle is more transparent, and market institutions can also predict daily intermediate prices by establishing a model.By comparing the official intermediate price and the daily market predictions collected by Bloomberg, if the deviation is obviously strong or weak, it will also be understood by the market as a guidance signal released by the regulatory layer.

In addition to the signal issued by the middle price, when the current exchange rate was depreciated by the annual price at the intermediate price last September, the foreign exchange market self -regulatory mechanism was reported to the market.Regulations and commitments.The central bank has also held a meeting to ask for the quotation to maintain the authority of the RMB mid -price price.

The US dollar sells for the big bank

In the shore market, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center is set to be the official closing price at 16:30 daily. The US dollar throwing from a state -owned bank before 16:30 for two consecutive days before this week, it has promoted the short period of time exchange rateAs time, it rose and disappeared after the official closing price pricing.This behavior has increased the exchange rate risk of multi -header interest trading in the US dollar, and a multi -dollar interest -to -interest transaction will be cautious.

Although there is no exact evidence that the state -owned bank transaction is related to the intervention of the regulatory layer, the official closing price is an important part of the current intermediate price formation mechanism, which reflects the market supply and demand status.The price can also make the middle price price stronger the next day, which is usually understood as a stable signal by the market.

In May, the Central Bank's press release quoted the meeting of the Foreign Exchange Market Guidance Committee that members of the self -discipline mechanism should consciously maintain the basic stability of the foreign exchange market and resolutely suppress the exchanges and rise.According to the President of the People's Republic of China, Yi Gang said in April that China has basically stopped the conventional exchange market intervention in recent years, but the central bank still "reserves" the right to interfere with the market.

Foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio

This tool sets the number of foreign currency deposits that financial institutions need to be paid as reserves, and the central bank can fine -tune the liquidity of foreign currency in the banking system.The reserve ratio will relax foreign currency supply to support the RMB exchange rate.It is mainly affected by the differentiation of the Chinese and American monetary policy. Since this year, the cost of US dollar financing in China has been increasing again and again. If the reserve of foreign exchange deposits is lowered, it will help relieve the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB transaction transaction.

The reserve ratio has been adjusted frequently since 2021.In response to the pressure of appreciation in 2021, the reserve ratio was increased twice, and the 5%finally increased to 9%.When facing depreciation pressure in 2022, twice downgraded, fell to 8%in April, and another 2%to 6%was reduced in September.

Other tools

Foreign exchange risk reserve is also one of the tools that the central bank has used.During the depreciation of September last year, the foreign exchange risk reserves of the long -term foreign exchange purchase business rose from zero to 20%. This policy will levy interest -free reserve for banks when buying foreign exchange for long -term purchases.So as to inhibit long -term foreign exchange purchase, bring more depreciation pressure.This policy has not yet been adjusted, and its long -term exchange volume has remained at a lower level this year, not the main depreciation factor.

In terms of conventional methods, regulators can also affect market mentality and supply and demand through public comment by officials or window guidance to market participants.The content of the central bank's press release in May quoted the contents of the meeting of the Foreign Exchange Market Guidance Committee, and the speech that the vice president Pan Gongsheng conveyed a stable confidence in Lujiazui can belong to this category.

China can also strengthen the management or adverse cycle adjustment of cross -border capital flow to calm down the outflow of funds.For example, in October last year, China's cross -border financing macro -prudential adjustment parameters of enterprises and financial institutions were raised from 1 to 1.25 to encourage cross -border financing inflows.This policy has not yet been adjusted.