Society: The strategic thinking of Chinas regaining the economy

Source: Taiwan Economic Daily

Economic Daily Society

After the epidemic, the Chinese economy and the world economy are weak. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, China's GDP will rise by 3%in 2022, and this year is predicted by about 5.8%.1%, far lower than China, means the gap between the economic strength of the United States and China is still narrowing.Although the IMF forecast is still cautious and optimistic, the economic performance of China has so far since the beginning of this year.

In the first quarter of this year, mainland China has grown 4.5%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year, but it has obviously not reached 5.8%of the annual forecast of IMF.Foreign trade has slowed down. As for the most sensitive indicators, the Chinese manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) is 48.8 in May, and it is in the shrinking period for the second consecutive month.Later, the latest signs of weakening economic recovery.At the same time, the slowdown of the Chinese economy is also manifested in the trend of continuous depreciation of the renminbi.In general, the weak momentum and trend since the first half of the year have not been reversed in the second half of the year, making it difficult for people to be optimistic about China's further economic development prospects.

In recent years, the Chinese mainland economy is not satisfactory, and it is the result of multiple reasons.First of all, of course, the epidemic situation for three consecutive years has severely impacted production, investment and consumption, and also caused great damage to the supply chain. Repair takes time.Secondly, under the deterioration of the US -China relations, the United States has decoupled the Chinese economy's decourse chain.Secondly, Western countries led by the United States have compressed the recovery of the global economy in order to deal with the tightening monetary policy adopted by inflation.

In order to stimulate the economy, Mainland China has launched a series of measures.In addition to the one -year and five -year benchmark interest rate of one -year and five -year benchmarks on June 20. It is hoped to promote people's consumption and investment, according to people familiar with the Wall Street Journal, the Chinese government is considering the issuance of about 1 trillion yuan of special government bonds; in addition, consider consideringCancellation of purchase restrictions on second -home cities to stimulate the real estate market.In other words, related countermeasures have included monetary policy, fiscal policies and housing policies. The effect is to be observed further, but there are many controversies in such a policy.For example, a loose monetary policy may play a role in alleviating the difficulties of some enterprises, but under the general expected atmosphere of poor economic prospects, whether it can effectively boost investment is very doubtful.

Facing China's unprecedented economic difficulties since the reform and opening up for more than 40 years, the exports are small, the domestic demand is weak, the enterprise has closed down, the stock market housing market is sluggish, and the signs of shrinkage appears. The unemployment rate (May) has reached a record.20.8%, what should I do?Maybe you have to find new strategic thinking from the theory of economic development and reform.

The economic development of a country is nothing more than two levels, that is, demand and supply.The demand is powerful, and the supply has potential, and the economy will develop.At present, the problem of China's economy is demanding. This is also the most important thing for the Chinese economy in the past few decades. However, due to the "de -globalization, anti -globalization, and anti -globalization in recent years", countries have been harmed.Fortunately, China also has domestic demand, and under the cultivation of decades, it has formed a huge huge market in the world. The Chinese government's large domestic demand and unified large market proposed in recent years is very correct.

The other side of demand is the supply. The potential of the supply surface comes from productivity, technology, innovation and infrastructure construction. There are no problems in these aspects.The vigorous performance of energy -saving batteries, drones, and other aspects.

Demand and supply conditions are available, and a mechanism requires the best combination of the two. This mechanism and carrier are private enterprises.In the past 40 years, the Chinese economy has been able to achieve extraordinary achievements. It is Deng Xiaoping's huge space and opportunities for the development of private enterprises to develop private enterprises, allowing private enterprises and state -owned enterprises to participate in economic development together, and also create a new model for the mixed ownership of Chinese -style modernization.However, because the reform of China's property rights has not yet matured, there are controversy over the positioning and policies of private enterprises, which will cause various unnecessary problems of the development of private enterprises.If Chinese governing officials can think in these aspects and adopt a suitable policy, I believe that they will be able to make a new stage of development and creative conditions for economic breakthroughs.