Ji Yongtian: Russia wins the Syrian war, why fail in Ukraine

Source: Taiwan Newspaper

Author: Ji Yongtian

Syrian conflict is a small -scale local battle

First of all, in terms of ground operations, Russia has sent troops to Syria in recent years. Although there are tens of thousands of people, most of them have maintained around thousands of people.After all, the main task in Syria is to clean up the terrorists of Islamic State, or the conflict between the Syrian militia, which belongs to a small -scale local battle.Therefore, most of the Russian troops in Syria belong to special forces, or they have selected the elite, of course, including the mercenary forces of private military contractors.The training standards, weapons, discipline and obedience of these Russian soldiers are far beyond the general Russian forces.On the contrary, most of the opponents have not experienced regular military training and lack of strict organizational and command structures. By comparison, the Russian army in Syria has great advantages.In addition, the Russian army also has the full assistance of the Syrian government and government forces to eliminate many unfavorable factors to fight strange environmental operations overseas, especially Russia's mercenaries. It is known for its cruel means and vicious style, which has made the enemy feel furious.

But in the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia's original combat plan was intended to swallow Ukraine in one fell swoop. Therefore, hundreds of thousands of troops were mobilized, and soldiers were invaded in multiple ways.Although Russia tried to focus on volunteer soldiers as the main attack forces, many voluntary soldiers were sent to the front line after the war began.These uneven Russian troops, in addition to the serious lack of training, some weapons and equipment are old, the biggest problem is that the morale is extremely low, which also leads to the low willingness of offense and often escape quickly after the war.At the same time, most of the armed militia or radical organizations in Syria are only light weapons. Even if they have large -caliber artillery, the number is not enough to reverse the war. Most of the local rockets are crudely built, and they lack armored vehicles, self -running artillery and main tanks.On the Ukrainian battlefield, although the Ukraine was from the beginning, the weapons and equipment were uneven, but after all, the Ukrainian army was still a regular army. During the Soviet period, he had a strong military industrial foundation.Can resist the Russian offensive as soon as possible.

NATO Alliance Aid weapons and ammunition made the Russian army difficult

More importantly, after the war continued for a period of time, the weapons and ammunition supported by the NATO allies gradually arrived in Ukraine, allowing the Ukraine to continue to fight, and even gradually began to occupy the upper hand.The Ukrainian Army was originally equipped with many weapons left over from the Soviet era. Although these equipment have been upgraded and improved, they are still relatively backward, which is not as good as the new military technology of NATO countries.After the Old weapon of the Ukraine was exhausted, it achieved stronger advanced equipment, allowing the Russian army to be in a very unfavorable situation.This is the best example of the US -made multi -tube rocket, air defense and anti -installed armor missiles, and self -running guns and main chariots provided by Britain, Germany, France and other countries, have caused great losses of the Russian army.In the Syrian civil war, the Islamic State was sanctioned and crossed by countries, and it was not easy for weapons and ammunition to obtain. Rare countries or organizations dared to directly support terrorists.As for the militia organizations against the Syrian government, although they can obtain some weapons, they still have a great gap compared with the Urpicious military aid to continue to receive large military assistance.This also made Russia play more and more well in Syria, but gradually retreated on the Ukrainian battlefield and fell into the predicament of Victoria Valley.

In addition to the weapon system, NATO countries have assisted Ukraine and achieved absolute advantages in terms of finger management and other aspects (C4ISR).UAVs are over the edge of Ukraine's lead and over the Black Sea, collecting battlefield intelligence and transmitting them to the Ukraine immediately.And the Russian army not only has inferiority in intelligence reconnaissance, but also has a serious lack of ability to manage the situation.Because the larger the mobilized troops, the difficulty of command and control will rise rapidly. In the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia and Ukraine can often cause losses due to command control errors, but Russia's problems are much more serious than Ukraine.The scale of the Russian army on the Syrian battlefield is not large. The task of clearing terrorists is usually not too long, and the range of crossfires is not large. The shortcomings of the Russian army have not been exposed.Essence

The most fatal problem of the Russian army is that the logistics ability is seriously insufficient. Originally, he used overseas soldiers to view the logistics support ability of the army. After all, the distance is far away.But when the Russian army fought in Syria, it had several unique conditions.One is that the Aceda regime in Syria completely relies on Russia's protection, so it provides many support from materials and manpower. The second is that after Russia and swallowed the Krimea Peninsula, they completely controlled the SEVASTOPOL naval base and mastered the masteryAfter the control of the Black Sea, the Black Sea Fleet can provide supplies nearby.The third is to control Turkey exported by the Black Sea. It just happens to have a tense relations with the United States. It is hoped that Russia will worship Russia to balance the United States. Not only does it purchase Russia's S-400 air defense missiles, it also launches many economic and energy cooperation plans.Although Turkey also sent troops to Syria and had conflicts with Russia from time to time, they did not want to make it difficult for the Russian army.Coupled with the limited number of Russian army, Russia's power throughout the country and supporting troops in Syria are not much difficult.

Russian Airlines Space Army performs terrible

In terms of air combat, the Russian Aerospace Forces of Russia integrate the Air Force and the Space Force. From various data, they are the second largest air forces in the United States, but in the Ukrainian battlefield, but in the Ukrainian battlefield,The performance was terrible.Judging from the recent development of the Russian and Ukraine, most of the precision strike weapons of the Russian Air Force have been exhausted, and they have been forced to purchase drones from Iran and other countries to serve as strikes.Limitation.After all, the more precise the weapon, the more expensive the number of purchases. The most powerful US military for defense resources will therefore develop a joint direct attack ammunition (JDAM) that can modify traditional bombs to replace air -to -ground missiles to reduce attacks to reduce attackscost.However, Russia did not imitate similar kits until the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War. It wanted to make up for the problem of lack of air -to -ground missiles, but it was too late to reverse the disadvantages of Russia.

In addition, when Russia was in Syria, the enemy had almost no air defense system, at most it was a short -range air defense missile in the vehicle or shoulder shooting, and the number was extremely limited.As long as the Russian fighter plane moves at mid -high altitude, it is safe.Coupled with the supporting small-scale ground operations, the precision strike weapons consumed are limited. Russia has time to add, so that the Russian aviation space army's war loss in Syria is very low.The Tu-22M3 supersonic strategic bomber just upgraded, went to Syria to participate in the war to test its performance.But in UkraineIt was not the case on the field. In the beginning, Ukraine only had some old air defense missiles. It mainly improved the system from the Soviet era, but it has repeatedly shot down Russia's fighters.After the war continued for more than a year, these old -style air defense missiles were almost exhausted. In order to avoid Russia to master the advantages of the air, Europe and the United States reversed the war situation and urgently supported a number of air defense systems.It even successfully intercepted the hypersonic missile.

Small disadvantages become fatal injuries during wartime

Ukraine first received the "National Advanced Air Defense System (NASAMS)" assisted by Norway. This is a system developed by Norway and the United States. With the consent of the United States, Norway first delivered two sets to Ukraine. It is already in it.The Russian and Ukraine battlefield shot down multiple Russian fighters, drones and cruise missiles.The United States not only announced that it will continue to sell more NASAMS to Ukraine, but also delivered two sets of Patriot air defense missiles.Patriots with rich practical experience not only threatened the Russian pilots, but also stopped Russia's "Kinzhal" hypersonic missile when Russia made an air attack on Ukraine.The myth of interception.Italy and France also provide SAMP/T air defense systems to Ukraine, which can launch short-range purple-15 (ASTER 15) missiles or long-range purple -30 (ASTER 15) missiles.Air defense system.These air defense systems have made Ukraine's air defense capacity leap forward, making the morale of the Russian aviation space army lower.

Therefore, as a whole, when the scale of the war becomes larger, the combat time becomes longer, and the difficulty will increase rapidly. Some small shortcomings may become a fatal problem.This is very worthy of thinking about Taiwan, because the long -standing environment of Chengping has made many combat plans of the Taiwan Army running on paper and small -scale training, which is difficult to discover the real problems at all.In particular, the exercise of the Taiwan Army often has many previews, and the participating troops lack the ability to strain.Among them, the weakest communication and logistics of the Taiwan Army is even more worried. At present, the ability to control the information supervision and investigation and investigation of assets and investigations cannot be based on large -scale warfare.scale.In recent years, the Taiwan Army has begun to attach importance to reserve forces. In addition to the establishment of the National Defense Mobilization Department, improve the training intensity of the teaching, supplement the lack of weapons and equipment that the reserve forces lack, and compile them into multiple backup brigades, but the supporting measures have not really received attention.EssenceRussia's frustration is worthy of vigilance, because Taiwan does not necessarily have the toughness of Ukraine, but the Taiwan army has the same Chen Yan as the Russian army.

The author is military researcher