U.S. President Biden cannot persuade Israel to suspend military operations in Gaza, and failed to curb Iranian or Israel to launch revenge attacks each other, exposing the limitation of the United States in the Middle East.This is the past 10 years in the United States, the previous government has gradually implemented the anti -phase effect of the Middle East's strategic contraction.The United States hopes to draw from the Middle East, but step by step.
Since the new round of conflicts broke out in Hamas, Israel and Palestine's radical organizations on October 7 last year, US President Biden has been working hard to avoid a regional war that might make the United States fall into the Middle East mud.However, Iran ignored a warning that for the first time on April 14, it launched a direct military blow from Israel.In the early morning of April 19, Israel fired the drone against Iran, and the security situation in the Middle East further deteriorated.If a wider regional war is triggered, the United States may be involved in it.
On the evening of April 14, Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones to Israel, and Israel shot down to most of the weapons under the assistance of allies such as the United States, Britain, France.Iran claims that the attack was to punish Israel's attack on the Iranian Damascus Consulate in Syria on April 1 and retaliated with seven Iranian officers who died during the attack.
The New York Times pointed out that since the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and Iraq have launched a direct attack on Israeli territory since the Religion of Israeli launching the Israeli scrap missile under the rule of Saddam. Iran is the first.Iran wants to rebuild the deterrent of Israel through this attack.
Israel claims to intercept 99%of Iranian missiles, but according to US officials, at least nine Iranian missile hit targets and hit two Israel Air Force bases.
New Year believes that Iran is not a paper tiger.Tehran can also launch thousands of short -range rockets to Israel through the Lebanon Allah.Some of these rockets have precise guidance and may cause significant damage to Israel's infrastructure.
Lebanon Real Party is the most powerful armed organization supported by Iran, and Iran is regarded as the core of the "resistance of the axis" in the Middle East.
The missile attack Iran no longer hiding behind the curtain
After the outbreak of the Harbin conflict, Iran was accused of providing weapons, or even combat guidance to other armed organizations that "resist the axis", so that the Lebanon Allah and Yemenhase armed "strike forward" and launched an attack on Israel to attack Israel.EssenceIran chose to hide behind the scenes, but publicly supported Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as well as the Allah and Hussean.But the missile attack on April 14 meant that the curtain of Iran was completely unveiled, and Iran had directly become the party of the conflict.
John Donaldson, an associate professor of Politics of Singapore School of Management University Social College, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "Whether in Garha, Lebanon, Syria or Yemen, Iran has an agency organization. In the past, Iran and Israel were bothIn the form of non -direct confrontation, playing games in the Middle East.
Iran quickly stated that the revenge operation was over.Iran warns that if Israel "makes mistakes", Iran will make a stricter response; if the United States intervenes, the US military base will become the target of attack.
However, Israel still chose to take revenge on Iran. In the early morning of April 19th, he launched an attack on Iran. It is reported that it hit a target in Iran, but did not cause serious damage.Iranian officially diluted the incident, and it was made by Israel without name attack, showing that Iran still wanted to prevent the war from expanding.However, the signs have been ignited, and the risk of extending the burn has always existed.
Iran's multiple nuclear facilities are located in ISFAhan, a central city, and Natanz nuclear facilities for uranium concentration plan.Essence
Du Qiang said that even if Israel does not counterattack further, Iran will accept it, but there is no direct communication channel between the two enemies, and it is easy to misjudge.Once Iran's agency organization provokes Israel, Israel may determine that it is the Iranian ambassador, and the consequences are unimaginable.
Israel is not controlled or dragged the United States into war
Bynden continued the policy between the Obama and the Trump administration from the Middle East after taking office, and the expansion of the Harbin conflict significantly did not meet the interests of the United States.Whether Biden can avoid further upgrading the situation depends on whether he has a way to limit the actions of Israeli Prime Minister Neyhho.
Nei Tanahu insisted on attacking the south of Gaza, and said that the ceasefire agreement was expected to pour cold water when it was reached before the fasting month.The United States has repeatedly demanded that more ports make it to enter the northern part of Gasha, and he has disappeared.The United States wants to restrain Israel without fighting against Iran, and Nei Tama also does not listen to persuasion.The influence of the United States on the Allies in Israel seems to be more and more limited.
Du Qiang said: "Israel may take more unilateral military operations to pressure the United States in the future. Israel is not controlled by the United States, and the possibility of self -proposition is increasing."
Sina Toossi, a senior researcher at the International Policy Center of the US Think Tank International Policy Center, pointed out in Lianhe Zaobao email that so far, Biden has not effectively used the huge influence of the United States on Israel, and Israel is in Gaza's Sausa’sMilitary operations and confrontation with Iran have maximized the Government of the Neihuhu government.
Since the outbreak of the Harbin conflict, the United States has sent a large number of weapons and ammunition to Israel, and repeatedly rejected the draft resolution of the Harbin Harbin Harbin in the United Nations Security Council.At present, the Bayeng government is urging the US Congress House of Representatives to vote for a bill of 100 billion US dollars as soon as possible, including providing more military aid to Israel.Right now, the US rumors will cut off the supply of weapons of Israel, which is actually just a threat of empty.
Tu Xi said: "The Middle East is currently on the edge of major conflicts. People are worried that Neutanahu may try to drag the United States into the war with Iran. If Israel launches further military operations on Iran, it may trigger the strong Tehran's strong.Counterattack, and then prompting the United States to intervene "
He warns that if he reaches this step unfortunately, not only is it threatened by global stability, but the political prospects of Biden will also be severely hit.
The biggest winner of the United States in the two countries in the two countries
Iran directly attacked Israel this time, and Iraqi has not suffered major losses, but has formed a win -win situation. Only the United States is the largest loser.
Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, a senior researcher at the Middle East project of the American Think Tank Atlantic Council, commented on a think tank website that this attack has saved Iran's face in the Middle East and ease the pressure of domestic public opinion.Because the Harbin conflict is facing increasing political pressureInner Tanahu, who was Li, was once again promised by Biden's firm support, and at the same time, the internal political pressure he faced was also alleviated.Iran and Israel have their own gains in this incident and are winners.
The election pressure is too difficult to pay attention to the situation.
Relatively speaking, only Bayidon's situation is getting harder.He is currently facing huge pressure on the election, and he is overwhelmed, and he does not want to get himself in the quagmire of the Middle East conflict.He now not only finds ways to keep Israel restrained, but also take into account the risks faced by the US military in the Middle East.
Winstanley wrote: "The United States seems to be approaching Biden and Iran's direct conflict. Among the supporters needed by Biden, a large number of people will not forget to Gaza, nor will they not forget, nor will they not forget, and they will not be or not.Accept him re -embrace Israel. Whether it is to control Israel's response to Iran, or let Neitanhu finally listen to his advice on the situation of Gaza, Bayeng seemed to lose the chip of the old prime minister to the old prime minister in Israel./P>
For Biden who is preparing to draw from the Middle East and strive for re -election, if Iran and Israel burst into a large -scale direct conflict, it will be obviously a disaster.The overflow of Harbin conflict will inevitably disperse and consume the strategic resources of the United States, while interfering with the US foreign agenda.How to balance the support for allies Israel, and at the same time, we must prevent a wider outbreak of war and make Biden fall into the dilemma.
Tu Xi analyzed to Lianhe Zaobao: "For Biden, the conflict with Iran may bring catastrophic consequences to his presidential term, re -election prospect and historical heritage.The huge political pressure from progressive parts within the Democratic Party.The political prospects will be very dim ""
U.S. Promoting the Middle East integration into the outbreak of the Harbin conflict broke out
In May last year, U.S. National Security Consultant Sarawon made a speech at the Institute of Policy Research in Washington near the Eastern Eastern Policy Research Institute that promoting integration was one of the pillars of the Middle East strategy of Biden's government.He emphasized that further integration in the Middle East will bring strength to American allies and partners, promote regional peace and prosperity, and reduce the region's long -term resource needs for the United States.
However, the measures that promote the integration of the Middle East have just become the fuse that broke out with the Harbin conflict.Analysis generally believes that Hamas raid Israel to create interference to prevent Saudi Arabia from normalizing the relationship between Israel.
From this point of view, the New Middle East policy of Biden's government not only failed to achieve the goal of alleviating regional tensions and promoting integration, but increased the turbulence of the regional situation.After the outbreak of the Pakistani conflict, the United States did not play a constructive role in the conflict and crisis resolution. Instead, the Bayeng government fell into an embarrassing situation of fatigue and limited results.
After Iran launched an attack on Israel, the United States' criticism in the United States and the Middle East policy in the United States endlessly.Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations in Harvard University in the United States, believes that the U.S.'s unconditional support for Israel has led to the increasingly extremely extreme ways of domestic politics and treating Palestinians in the past few decades.The Middle East policy in the United States for decades is an important promoter in this round of conflict.
FAWAZ GERGES, a professor of politics in the London School of Economics and the Middle East, was criticized by the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC).The ground was involved in another catastrophic war in the Middle East, which was the failure of Bayeng's government policy. "
Public opinion: Beauty did not control Israel and was led by Natanahu's nose
Some scholars also believe that Biden was involved in conflict.When the "National Defense Protection" policy director Benjamin Friedman was interviewed by the US media, he accused the Israeli government of conflicting conflicts with Iran."Instead of supporting Israel, President Biden should make it clear that the support of the United States is limited and it is not suitable for all situations. The positive conflict with Iran will only endanger the security of the United States and will not bring obvious returns." Some public opinion believes that the United States not only did not control Israel, but has been led by Nei Tanahu's nose.Neutanhahu has a strong motivation to extend its military operations in Gaza, and even tries to drag Lebanon Albon and Iran into a conflict. In this way, the United States may also be dragged into the United States.
In the past few decades, the United States has always hoped that Israel has established a closer military connection with the Arabic enemy to jointly respond to the intensified Iranian threat.This goal seems difficult to achieve.
From the Evil Harbin conflict, the Red Sea crisis, and the latest confrontation between Iran and Israel, the United States has continued to deepen.In a report on January 31st this year, the United States CNN pointed out that a lesson that can be obtained in the Middle East policy of the United States in the past few months and even the past 20 years is that the situation in the Middle East is changing.Region, "reasonable ideas and assumptions in Washington's view rarely play a role as expected."
"This is why Biden fell into a dilemma. How can he find the right place between deterrence and disaster upgrade of the situation."
Reports pointed out that the key task facing the Biden government is to prevent conflicts in this area from getting out of control, but all the options in front of Biden are bad and seeking actions to slow down the crisis may eventually lead to intensification of crisis.
There is no signs of ceasefire in the short term with Harbin conflict. In addition, the tension between Iran and Israel has been continuously upgraded and the confrontation is intensified.Military resources.
Looking back at the Middle East War
Whether the conflict between Iran and Israel will expand, and the "Sixth Middle East War" broke out, causing widespread worldwide attention.Since the day of the founding of Israel, it has faced the hostility of the entire Arab world and fought five times with the Arab countries.
- The first time: 1948
The Jews announced the establishment of Israeli, and the United States took the lead in recognizing Israel and ignited the anger of the Arab countries.Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon founded the five -nation coalition forces on three sides of Israel, and the first Middle East War broke out.
- Second time: 1956
In order to regain the control of the Suez Canal, the United Kingdom and France jointly launched a war against Egypt.The Three Kingdoms actions were generally accused by the international community.Britain and France were forced to accept the ceasefire resolution under strong international pressure, and Israel agreed to withdraw from the Sinai Peninsula.
- Third: 1967
History is called the "Six -Day War".Jordan, Egypt, and Syrian coalition were completely defeated by the Israeli army within six days.Israel's occupation includes Arab territory including the Sinai Peninsula, the Gelan Highlands, the West Bank of Jordan, the Gaza Strip, and the East Jerusalem.
- Fourth time: 1973
In order to recover the loss, Egypt and Syria are in PalestineThe support of the Bo country launched an attack on Israel, and the war lasted for 18 days.Egypt and Israel finally decided to stop the war in accordance with the UN Security Council.
- Fifth: 1982
Israel sent troops to invading Lebanon, occupied one -quarter Lebanon territory in six days, and captured most of the bases of the Palestinian Liberation Organization.
