International Special: How long can Ukraine be supported in two years with the Russian

In February 2022, Putin has ordered the invasion of Ukraine to the present, and the two sides have been deadlocked.At the beginning, Ukraine was caught off guard. The outside world also believed that the Ukrainian government, which had long corruption for a long time, had neither military forces against Russia, nor would they desperately dare to carry this military power.Unexpectedly, Zeelianzki did not escape and adhered to the land. This move changed the situation and encouraged the Ukrainian people. In the early days of the war, the Ukrainian military and civilians ignored life and death to protect their country and defend their nations.

Underworld after Wu Xian's prosperity is not a few year

But the victory of Ukraine ended abruptly a year ago. Since then, the Ukraine has not won a decent victory.The West's military aid against Ukraine from the initial positive to the fatigue, which discounted Ukraine's "victory".

Although the EU meeting in March agreed to provide 5 billion euros (about S $ 7.2 billion) for military aid this year, any measures in the European Union would take a while to implement it.Know when it is.The US $ 60 billion (approximately S $ 80.8 billion) aid Ukura proposal was also delayed because of the obstruction of the Republican Party.

A few days ago, the Roman Catholic Pope Francis called on Ukraine to fight the courage to negotiate with Russia to end the war.Since the beginning of this year, the statement about Ukraine may be defeated.This theory believes that Russia has accelerated the production of arms at the speed of the war during the war. In contrast, the output of weapons in Europe and the United States is not high. After deducting the needs of their country, there are not many to allocate Ukraine.For example, only 300,000 of the 2.3 million shells used last year from Ukraine last year, and European ammunition joint procurement plans were not implemented until the end of last year.At this speed, how to compete with Russia?

Zelekiski's consultant, Podoliak, has publicly criticized the "indecision" and uncoordinated actions of the Kiev Aidians, condoning Russia, which is leading to "serious consequences."He said: "Russia began to become arrogant, and began to believe that it could squeeze Ukraine on the quantity. On the contrary, Ukraine lacked shells and was losing partial initiative."

However, James Dorsey, a senior researcher at the Singapore Nanyang Institute of Technology, believes that there are many factors that affect the war, and often unexpectedly occur, and Ukraine's defeat is a bit overwhelming.

Domoxi's interview with Lianhe Morning Post, taking the situation when the Russian and Ukraine War broke out as an example, it was said that Russia thought that the Russian military would be able to win Ukraine at the time."However, this kind of calculation is not only failed, but Russia has also suffered a large number of casualties and is embarrassed. More than two years have passed, Ukraine still controls most territories to this day, and they still adhere to the position to continue fighting."

Duoxi believes that the outside world should not underestimate the combat effectiveness of the Ukraine. Ukraine faces difficulties before, which does not mean that it cannot get rid of the predicament. After all, the Ukraine troops are tough and resistant to the Russian army.

Ukraine is just a chess piece of Russia?

But the battlefield does not wait for people, Russia is estimated to launch an offensive in summer.In contrast, European and American military aid is "late".

Gerard Toal, a professor of international affairs at Virginia University of Technology, believes that the United States and the European Union really want to help Ukraine fight Russia.

Thor said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "Because Russia is trying to destroy Ukraine, Europe and the United States firmly oppose it, and do not have such a situation.Friendly neighbors, not Evil, Russia to invade neighbors "

Thor dislikes the so -called conspiracy theory.He said that treating Ukraine as a chess piece is to simply regard global affairs as the product of the game of great powers. This view is narrow and does not meet the international status.

But the lack of support for allies is directly impacting Ukraine's counterattack ability.After the outbreak of the Harbin conflict in October last year, the international focus was rapidly shifted, which dispersed the attention of leaders of various countries for the Russian and Ukraine War, and made people sigh that they did not stand on Ukraine.In particular, Russia has recently reported frequent reports on the battlefield, which will inevitably make Ukraine supporters anxious, discuss whether Ukraine is strategic mistakes, and misunderstandings can repel Russia with the support of Western allies.

Thor believes that Ukraine's lack of military aid is a mistake in the United States, not Ukraine misjudgments, and the Russian and Ukraine War has continued to this day."It is estimated that historians will argue in the future. If Ukraine chooses to carefully avoid anger Russia, what will happen? But at present, the main 'strategic misjudgment' we see is from Russia."

"Russia originally believed that it could win a victory in Ukraine in a short period of time. The leadership was the victim of war optimism. This is the phenomenon we see again and again in human history."

Thor also believes that Russia misunderstand that China and the United States confrontation can help Russia gain infinite support in China, while the United States will pay more attention to China, not Russia.In fact, Russia's status has been weakened because of this war.

He said: "Compared to China, Russia's bargaining strength has weakened, and its war on Ukraine has prompted European anti -Russian military alliances to be stronger than before. Sweden and Finland have now joined NATO.And rebuild military production capacity "

Turn to "War Economy" to add resources to Russia to continue combat power

When the Russian army invaded Ukraine, Putin would definitely think that Ukraine could be forced in a few days, and he did not expect a hard bone.

The Russian army was defeated successively at first. Many people estimated that the Russian army would be defeated and Putin will step down, but these predictions have not become a fact.On the contrary, Putin's presidential election in March this year was successfully re -elected with nearly 90 % of the votes. It shows that the Russian and Ukraine War will not threaten his status, and once again remind Western leader Putin to firmly control Russia.

In order to reverse the mistakes in the early days of the war, Putin used the high dependence of European countries to Russia's natural gas in winter to try to threaten and separate them, but did not succeed.At the same time, Putin attracted opponents or enemies in the United States such as China, North Korea and Iran to seek foreign aid and gradually reverse the war.This strategy played the effect.

Thor said that Russia adjusted its initial misjudgment and gradually realized that it was necessary to turn to the "war economy" to win war."Therefore, Russia recruited troops in September 2022, the economy turned to military production, and also adopted many changing methods to deal with Western sanctions. This also allowed China and India to sell a large amount of raw materials by Russia at a discount price."

In Thor's view, the direct and indirect help of China, North Korea and Iran are a very important factor in Russia to quickly recover the defeat of the battlefield.

The annual assessment report issued by the Lili Gelaries intelligence agencies on March 7 states that high oil prices, successful avoidance of sanctions and national investment provide resources to Russia, so that it can continue to fight in Ukraine for at least two years.Russia is also expanding its military strength to the west, preparing to confront each other in the Baltic region with NATO member states.

Some analysts believe that Putin's invasion of Ukraine is not only to establish a buffer around Russia to resist the threat of the West. He also has to restore the powerful power of the former Soviet Union.Political order.

Putin threatened the use of nuclear martial arts is the field gambling

Since the outbreak of the war, Putin has used nuclear weapons from time to time. At the beginning, the West ignored Putin's intimidation, and now the West may be treated seriously.In particular, Putin warned in an interview with Russian media on March 13 that if Russia's sovereignty and independence were damaged, Russia faced the threat of survival, and they would use nuclear weapons.Putin dared to openly threatened, because the Russian army gradually grasped the dominance and had confidence in his heart.

The Lowy Institute of Foreign Policy, the Institute of Foreign Policy, analyzed that Putin's continued nuclear threat was to prevent NATO from sending troops to the Ukrainian war and set a red line to Western countries, indicating that he was preparing to resort to extreme meansEssence

However, his nuclear threat may also be a carefully planned move in order to allow Western countries to sit in front of the negotiating table.Although Putin is determined to ensure the victory of Russia, he will also be worried that the cost and risk brought by the protracted war.Increasing nuclear threats may force Western leaders to negotiate in order to end the conflict faster.

Nuclear threat is a gambling of Putin.If Western countries believe that Putin's threat is to be blunt and decide to increase military support for Ukraine, not only his abacus will fail, but Russia's interests will also be damaged.

Putin's strategy depends on the interpretation of his intentions in the West.

Is the battle or the inaccurate

The Russian and Ukraine War became a long -term war. For Russia, Ukraine and NATO countries, everyone could not eat it.

Some analysts believe that the Kremlin Palace will continue to use Western hesitation to promote the argument of Ukraine's defeat, so as to force Ukraine to reach a peace agreement in accordance with Moscow's conditions.

But the war is changeable, it is war, it is, no one can say.

Duoxi believes that at this stage, Russia and Ukraine's willingness to negotiate is not high.He said that the negotiations depend on the two factors. One is the room without choice, and the second is that the cost of war is too high to continue to fight.In other words, when there is no way, moving towards the negotiating table is the final solution to the problem."However, there are no these problems whether it is Russia or Ukraine. Not to mention the positions of Russia and Ukraine are tough, and no one is willing to compromise or concessions. From this view, the two sides will continue to fight."

Thor said that even if the two sides were suspended, it would not last for a long time, because Russia and Ukraine would strive for time to carry out military reorganization, strengthen military strength, and then fight again.

Russian problem scholar at the University of Birmingham, Jaroslava Barbieri, said in an interview with the British Sky News Station that 2024 is a year when the West cannot be misjudged again, but also a year when the West plays an important role.She believes that the European Union and NATO will be committed to strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities.

Balbieri analyzed that in 2022, Western underestimated Ukraine's combat capabilities. In 2023, Western underestimated Russia's ability to restore combat from military setbacks."The future of the war depends on whether the West accepts such a reality: this is not only the survival war of Ukraine, but also the battle for the entire West."

Western scholars generally believe that as long as the West can unite and support Ukraine to strengthen defense, Russia will be more injured in the future.

British military and security experts Philip Ingram told British media that Russia would be significantly weakened if the war continued for more than two years."It (Russia) cannot withstand more pressure and burden at all, but in the West, the ability to withstand is just a political decision, because in comparison, the price of Ukraine fails is much greater."