Israeli Prime Minister said that the war in the Gaza Strip will soon enter a new stage.
"The fierce war with Hamas is about to end," said the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Neitanahu in an interview with a TV interview on Sunday."This does not mean that the war is about to end, but the fierce stage of the war is about to end."
However, after more than half a year's terrible bleeding incident, no matter how comfortable these remarks can be, Neitanahu has quickly clarified two things: Gaza's ceasefire has not arrived.The next battle may be in Lebanon, fighting with Hamas's ally.
He said that after the withdrawal of Gaza, "we can transfer some troops to the north."
Neitanahu has not announced the invasion of Lebanon -because this is likely to lead to heavy losses in Li Li, but left room for a diplomatic solution with the Allah.
Any diplomatic solution on Gaza's issue is still uncertain. In part, if Israel stopped the battle in Gaza without Hamas's step down, Neitanahu's alliance may collapse.
However, Neitanahu seems to be hinting that Israel will not seek to launch a large -scale ground attack on the city of Gaza in the city of Gaza, after completing the military operations of the southernmost city of Gaza.The only area that has not launched such attacks.
Although the leaders of Israel have stated since January that they are transitioning towards a low -intensity war, the end of the La Fa may contribute to the completion of this process.
Neganahu's speech, and recently, the recent speech by the Israeli Defense Minister of Defense in Washington shows that the focus of Israeli political discussion and strategic planning is moving to the northern border with Lebanon.
In a statement on Monday, Garant's office stated that he discussed with U.S. officials that "the transition of Gaza to the" C -stage "and its impact on the region -including Lebanon and other regions".
战争初期，加兰特概述了一个三阶段作战计划，其中包括对哈马斯目标和基础设施进行密集空袭；一段时间的地面行动，旨在“消除零星抵抗”；而第三阶段，That is, stage C will "create a new security reality for Israeli citizens."
Since October last year, Israel has been in a low -level conflict with the Allah, which has led to hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border.But this battle was covered by a larger war in Gaza.
On weekends, the transformation of both parties' words may indicate a significant upgrade of the relationship between the Allah and Israel.
Israeli officials have been warning for a few months that if the power of the powerful militia organization that controls southern Lebanon and is supported by Iran does not withdraw troops from the border, Israel may invade Lebanon.The Allah also threatened to invade Israel.
However, the reduction of the Gaza Strip's war may also eventually create a space for the relief of hostile operations of the Lebanon border.The Allah joined the battle last October to support Hamas.The leadership of the Allah said that if the Gaza war subsided, the Allah may gradually stop action.
The following is the four possible performances of Israel's transformation in Gaza's position.
1. Attack Gaza, but the scale is smaller
Once Israel's operation in La Fa ended in the next few weeks, the military is expected to focus on the hostage rescue operation of the Gaza Strip, just like the sacity of four Israelis in early June and kill dozens of Palestinian people.Action.
Military officials also said that they will continue to attack residential areas occupied in the early stages of the war to prevent Hamas militants from reinstalizing these regions.
Typical examples of such actions include four months after Israel attacked the Higher Hospital of Gaza City for the first time, and attacked the hospital again in March this year. Another example was Jabalia, which was occupied for the first time in November, 5Moon has carried out three weeks of operations.
2. Gama power vacuum
Israel withdraws the troops from most parts of Gaza, but does not transfer power to another Palestinian leader. This may actually cause Hamas leaders to retain the rule of this destroyed land. At least it is currently the case.
If the Israeli army attacks Gasha regularly, it is possible to prevent Hamas from returning to the strength of the past -but this will extend the power of power and let the large tribes and gangs compete with Hamas to influence.This vacuum will make it more difficult to rebuild Gasha, assign assistance and reduce the pain of civilians.
Israel is expected to continue to control the boundary between Gaza and Egypt to prevent the weapons there from smuggling there.Israel is expected to continue to occupy a piece of land in northern and southern parts of adding sand to prevent free actions between the two regions.
3. Starting with the Allah, or ease the situation
By adding troops to the northern border, the Israeli troops will be more capable of invading Lebanon, forcing the Allah for militants to stay away from Israeli territory.
However, gathering the army there may attract more rocket attacks by the Lord, thereby increasing the possibility of misjudgment and eventually evolving into a comprehensive war.The leader of the Allah Hasan Nasrola warned last week that the organization may invade Israel, and the risk of upgrading the situation seems to be urgent than any time in the past few months.
At the same time, Israel announced that it has entered a new stage in Gaza, which may also provide conditions for alleviating tensions.The reduction of the Gaza war may give the Allah's retreat.In February this year, Nasrola said that "when Gaza's shooting stops", his organization will also stop fire.
A relatively calm period of the Lebanon border may also promote the return Israelis to return home.In turn, this will reduce the pressure of the Israeli government to take more tough action.One of the main reasons for Israeli leaders considering the invasion of Lebanon is to create conditions and persuade Israelis who leave their hometown to return.
4. Continuous relationships with the government of Biden
By announced the withdrawal from Gaza, Neitanahu reduced one of the sources of friction between President Bayeng, but other frictions continued to exist.
Bynden criticized Israel's war behavior, although his government continued to provide funds and weapons for Israel.A less destructive Gasha War will reduce the debate with the Israeli military strategy with Washington.
Danahu's refusal to propose a clear plan for the post -war governance, and the possibility of Israel's invasion of Lebanon still exists, which left a full chance for him to have differences between him and Washington.
The Bayeng government hopes to end the battle with the Allah. For a few months, the United States has urged Neitanahu to authorize another substitute Palestinian leadership in Gaza.But Neitanahu has always been vague about Gaza's future, because his right -wing partner puts pressure on him, asking him to occupy the territory and reorganize the Israelis in the territory.
