A few days ago, college students and women's groups demonstrated in Jakarta, asking Zoko to strictly adhere to neutrality and not to destroy the democratic system.Some analysts believe that these young people may empty white tickets or not vote.Some anti -Zoko politicians, using skirt wind and moral issues, asked him to resign.However, anti -Zoko's forces have not yet formed a large -scale democratic movement.
February 4 this year is the last game of the Indonesian presidential election debate.The results of the three groups of candidates are similar to the previous polls.The results announced by the eight polls show that the Plaboor -Giblan group is still far ahead. The Anis -Mu Haimin group and the Gandchar -Maford group still fall behind.The difference is that the results of the five polls this time showed that the support rate of the Plaboor -Giblan group exceeded the 50%mark, between 51.8%and 53.5%.From 19.6%and 28%; two backward combinations, some poll results showed that Anis' combination was leading, and some were Gambel's combination.Faced with this situation, Anis and Gander intended to cooperate to make Plabowo not obtain 50%of the votes in the first round of voting, forcing him to participate in the second round of elections.In this way, Anis and Gander can support each other and can defeat Plaboovo.Is this a feasible strategy?Can Plabowo be a wonderful victory at the last moment?
Experts analyzed that this election was president Zoko.His support for presidential candidates is likely to determine the victory of the candidate.Generally, the president who is about to step down is a lame duck, but Zoko is an exception.He will step down on October 20 this year, but the support of polls so far is still very high, mainly because Indonesia under his governance is quite stable in politics and economy.The economic growth rate is 5%and the inflation rate is below 4%.His policy of affinity is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, especially the people in rural areas have a good opinion of him.As long as the political and economic stability continues before the election, Zoko's influence cannot be ignored.
Nevertheless, Zoko's dissatisfaction of democratic liberals before the presidential election.They accused Zoko's moral relationship, instigating the younger brother -in -law of the Indonesian Constitution Court to amend the campaign regulations, so that the eldest son of the age of less than 40 can become a vice presidential candidate, partnering with Plabowo, trying to build his own political dynastyEssenceIn the presidential election, although Zoko kept his mouth neutral, he had been on the same stage with Plabowavo many times, obviously favored his eldest son Giblan's partner.However, in the polls, although Zoko's support rate has decreased, it still does not affect the overall situation.However, the politicians who oppose Zako and those who advocate democracy and freedom still use the controversy of the skirt and the political dynasty as the campaign issue before the election.If Plaboor cannot win in the first round, the second round of opponents may continue to speculate on this issue to attack Zoko, which may affect the election.
Some analysts believe that Zoko seems to be prepared.A few years ago, the place was directly elected in two periods. Later, the government changed two phases to one phase (that is, in 2024) at the same time.After the local officials who turned off in the early 2024, the central government was appointed by the central government to sit on the town.No one predicted that this would be beneficial to the Zoko government.Because these chiefs are commissioned by the government, they are loyal to the central government.Some people complained that the election poster between Gambar and Anis group was cleared by the local government, and the approval of the campaign speeches was sometimes difficult to make.In fact, the chief of the police and the commander of the three armies are all confessed by Zako, and they will fall to Zoko.In addition, Zoko implemented the "Social Aid" plan during the campaign to emergency benefits to poor people.The people will misunderstand that this is the subsidy of Zoko to the people, and will vote to the presidential candidate related to Zoko during the election.
Establishment of Zoko Political Dynasty
Zoko and the eldest son Giblan are both party members of the Indonesian struggle for Democratic Party.Zoko's campaign president and Gilblan campaign may be sent to the Democratic Party member as a struggle.However, Zoko did not support the candidate Gandhar nominated by the Democratic Party.Giblan himself also came out to run, becoming a hostile vice presidential candidate for Plaboor, and retired from the party.However, Zoko is still a cadre of the struggle faction. He has not been expelled from the party to be expelled from the party.Both sides are still watching.
Although Zoko is a cadre of the struggle, there is no force within the party. Although he has multiple political parties, he cannot completely control these political parties.A small party called the Indonesian Unity Party (PSI) originally supported the young people of Zhong Wanxue from the beginning, and also supported Zako.In the 2019 election, the Solidarity Party only received 1.9%of the national votes, and failed to reach 4%of national votes required by Congress.However, Zoko had a special love for this young people's party. Several leaders of the party were introduced to Zok Cabinet as the deputy minister.When Zako's eldest son was running for the vice president of this year, Zoko seemed to intentionally treat the young man's party as a tool to establish a political dynasty.On September 23, 2023, the leader of the unity party suddenly announced that Zakko's young son Kasan joined the party as a cadre, and sent the member card to Kana's house in Sulor.Two days later, 28 -year -old Cassan was successfully elected as the President of the Indonesian Unity Party.
After Cassan became the chairman of the president, he immediately announced the support of the Plaboor -Giblan group.In fact, earlier, the Solidarity Party supported Gandhar as a presidential candidate in Indonesia. Later, Plaboopovs drained the Unity Party, causing it to split.Controlled by Zoko's young leader.After taking office, Kasan began to develop the party forces, recruited membership, and participated in the 2024 Congress election. It threatened to get at least 4%of national votes to enter Congress.However, in polls, only a few people think that the unity party can enter Congress, and most of them are still not optimistic about its strength.
At this stage, Cassan's main task is to vote for Giblan.31%of voters this year are young people aged 17 to 30. If they can get their votes, the hope of being selected is very high.The appearance of Giblan and Cassan is to fight for this group of voters.Although they are full of confidence, they may not get votes from most young people.One thing should be emphasized that many people who choose the Plaboor -Giblan group in polls, in addition to the supporters of the Greater Indonesian Sports Party affiliated to Plabovo, are the supporters of Zako.
Plabovo is actually a character representing the old forces.He is the former son -in -law of President Suhado, a veteran general, a record of violating human rights, and has been banned from entering the United States.In the 1998 Chinese discharge campaign, many people believed that the behind -the -scenes of the scenes of the rape of Chinese women were Prabowo, but he denied it.He was originally the enemy of Zako and had been running for the president twice. Although he was strongly supported by the Muslim conservatives and hardliners, he was defeated in the hands of Zoko, who advocated nationalism and mildly.However, Zako later changed his strategy, invited him to enter the cabinet, served as the Minister of Defense, and since then he turned his enemy to friends.Plabowava also said that Zoko was a great president. If he was elected, he would continue to complete Zako's plan and policy, and he would be herself with Zoko.
Anti -Plaboopo's Force
How can the other two combinations weaken the Plaboor combination?First of all, they launched a discussion calling on Zoko not to choose the side station; a few days ago, college students and women's groups demonstrated in Jakarta, asking Zoko to strictly conservation and neutrality, and not to destroy the democratic system.Some analysts believe that these young people may empty white tickets or not vote.Some anti -Zoko politicians, using skirt wind and moral issues, asked him to resign.However, anti -Zoko's forces have not yet formed a large -scale democratic movement.
Gandhar, who was originally the heir of Zoko, said that although he also said that he would inherit Zako's plan, he was no longer a candidate supported by Zako.In fact, Gandhar is a leader of the people. He opposes the governing of the country with Muslim, and also opposes conservative and tough Muslims.His non -racial Indonesian nationalism has obtained many ChineseI feel and support, and many Muslim mild aborigans also support him.He was the presidential candidate with the highest call in the polls, surpassing Plaboor and Anis, but after Zoko no longer supported him, the support rate of polls fell from 30%to 40%.%.Obviously, Gandhar, the former governor of Central Java, has insufficient personal charm and influence. The current election rate is not very high.
Anis is a descendant of the Arabians and was the president of the Private Notice University and the Minister of Education of Zako Cabinet.Later, in order to Dangjaka's head, he competed with Zhong Wanxue, who had a pretty political achievement.In 2017, with the support of Muslim Conservatives and hardships, Anis defeated Zhong Wanxue with "identity" politics.Many non -Muslims have doubts about Annice because they still have a close relationship with Muslim hardships and have used "identity politics" to obtain the head position.However, he is a professor of university professors, advertising freedom and democracy, and the only presidential candidate who advocates "changing Zoko policy".Therefore, he received the support of anti -Zoko forces, including many college students and academic circles.Therefore, when Zoko no longer supports Gagchar, Anis's polls supporting Gandhar's support rate was slightly better than Gandhar.
Anis' philosophy and supporters are different from Gandhar's philosophy and supporters.Although the former is advertised as a multiculturalism, it has a strong Muslim, and supporters are the most significant for Muslim conservatives and hardliners.As for the impression of Gandhar, he has the ethnic political philosophy and the Indonesian nationalism who believes in Sakano, who has been blatantly to clear the boundaries with the Muslim conservatives and tough factions.The maintenanceer of the Five Principles of the People's Republic of China.
The two presidential candidate groups are now facing the common enemy Plaboor group.In the first round of elections, their scope of cooperation may be limited, and they can only work together to weaken the Plaboor group.However, they could not cooperate further, let alone fusion, because both groups wanted to win the second position in the first round of elections.Only in the second round, the two groups of candidates can really cooperate, support each other, and strive for being elected. After that, they can get a place in the new government.However, can the presidential candidate supported by different political parties and ideas really cooperate with each other?Will voters who support them really vote for another combination?I was a little doubtful.
The author is a senior visiting researcher at the Yosov Issa East South Asian Research Institute in Singapore
Nanyang University of Science and Technology Lajilin South International Research Institute part -time professor
