The dual political party system contains the risk of national division, and Pakistan's lesson is extremely profound.This dual political party system is also a barrier to Palestine's unification.There are three possible situations in the future of Palestinian dual political parties.
Harbin conflict affects the world's nerves.Although the two sides temporarily ceased fire and opened hostage transactions, Israel adhering to a tough position and vowed to completely eliminate Hamas, so violent conflicts will not end in the short term.If Hamas is destroyed by Israel, how the Gaza Strip in the "Harma" will rebuild the governance structure, which will become an inevitable real issue.Is Israel's "temporary management"?Or is it given to the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fartach)?Or is it that both parties have no ability to manage and let them return to the autonomy?
From the theoretical perspective, Israel has a strong willingness to supervise Gaza. Israeli President Herzog once told the media that Israel cannot allow Gaza to have power vacuum.Placing and adding sand.However, from a practical perspective, Israel is unlikely to implement "temporary management" in Gaza, because it lacks legitimacy and is not supported by the United States.The United States has clearly opposed Israel's occupation of Gasha, and advocates that it is managed by Fatah, which is generally recognized by the international community.
U.S. President Biden published a signature article on the Washington Post on November 18 last year stating: "The west bank of the Gasha and the Jordan River should be reunited under a single governance structure."Therefore, the key to the problem is to be transformed into. In the future, Fartach can overcome the dual political system currently existed in Palestine. Will it uniformly manage the West Bank of Jordan and the West Bank of Jordan?
Based on Pakistan before 1971
The general consensus of the international community is that the "two countries" are the only way to ensure that Israel and Palestine's long -term security.
The two countries' schemes, namely Palestine and Israel, have established the country independently and coexist peacefully.Since Israel has founded the country independently and has been recognized internationally, the key to whether the "two countries" can be realized is whether it can establish a unified and independent Palestinian State.
At present, there are two major dilemma of the establishment of a unified and independent Palestinian State. One is that from the outside, there are many territorial disputes with Palestine and Israel; the other is from the inside.The composition of large blocks, the two are not bordering, and are controlled by different political organizations (political parties): the west bank of the Jordan River is managed by Fatah, and the Gaza Strip is managed by Hamas.This political system is usually called the "dual political party system" in political science, that is, a country's political party system in two regions of the two major regions by two political parties.
From the perspective of comparison, the closest case with Palestine's dual political party system is Pakistan before 1971.At that time, Pakistan's territory was divided into two major blocks: East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and West Pakistan (now Pakistan).In the first national election of Pakistan in 1970, the Avame Alliance (People's Alliance) won 160 seats in East Pakistan (later Bangladesh);The 81 seats are all from West Pakistan, and there is no candidate in East Pakistan.In other words, at that time, Basstan did not have a national party, but controlled the two major regions of the two major parties, which were clearly clear.
The biggest problem of the dual political party system is that it cannot effectively carry out national integration and may even bring the consequences of national division.Pakistan, which implemented a dual political party system, was ultimately split into Bangladesh and Pakistan.This lesson may be a lesson in Palestine today.
The formation of the dual political party system of Palestine
On November 29, 1947, the UN General Assembly voted to divide Palestine into an Arab country and a Jewish country.Although Israeli leaders accepted the resolution of division, Palestinian leaders refused to recognize the division of governance and denied the existence of Israel, and then launched the first Middle East war with other Arab countries.After the war, the territory of Israel increased by 21%, while the East Jerusalem, the west bank of the Jordan, and the Gaza Strip were occupied by Jordan and Egypt, respectively.On March 11, 1949, the United Nations acknowledged that Israel was a member of the United Nations and Israel obtained international legitimacy.
In 1959, the Palestinian nationalist headed by Arafa founded Fartach.In the early days, he had a radical opposition to Israel, insisted on achieving the national liberation of Palestine by armed struggle, and established an independent Palestinian State.In 1964, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (hereinafter referred to as the "Pakistani Organization"), led by Fartach, and eight sub -organizations, was established, and gradually became the "only legal representative of Palestine" recognized by the international community.The Palestinian Organization has long led the Palestinian people to carry out the national liberation movement and obtained the legitimacy of managing Palestine in the process of armed struggle.
On October 16, 1973, the Fourth Middle East War broke out, which greatly weakened the strength of the Bajie Organization. In addition, the international situation was conducive to the reversal of Israel.For the first time acknowledged Israel as a country, under the mediation of the United States, it signed an Oslo agreement with Israel and the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.Limited management of the West Bank of Jordan River.Through armed struggle and peaceful negotiations, the Bazai Organization obtained the legitimacy of managing Palestine.
However, the cooperation between Fatheh and Israel has triggered the strong dissatisfaction of regional people, especially the political Islamic forces, and they claim that the Pakistani Organization has been in the enemy and has become the agent of Western countries.The intention is replaced, and the Hamas (Islamic resistance movement) is the most typical.
In 1987, the Aksa Uprising, the first Palestinian uprising, broke out. Hamas rose in this uprising. As a branch of the Egyptian Muslim Brothers in Palestine, Hamas gradually changed from religious charitable organizationOrganize for violence.At first, Hamas and Pakistani were not treated with fire, and even many rumors said that Hamas would join the Pakistani solution.Although these rumors have been denied by Hamas, it shows that the relationship between the two parties is not naturally opposed.However, the natural differences between Hamas and Pakistani, so that the two parties have never reached a political consensus and achieved effective cooperation.The relationship between the two parties eventually broke.
Hamas and Fatheh are the same
In terms of ideas, goals, and means, Hamas is different from Fartach.
First of all, in terms of political concept, Hamas uses Islamic as the core concept to try to establish the Islamic State of Political and Education.The country is regarded as an ideal mode.Secondly, in terms of political goals, Hamas will always establish Palestine as a Gui from Palestine from the west coast of the Mediterranean to the west bank of the Jordan River, and the recognition of the territorial border in 1967 is only for strategic considerations.Fartach chose to control the Palestinian national power institutions under the framework of the "two countries" and achieve security cooperation with Israel.Finally, in terms of strategy, Hamas never gave up the use of armed methods to fight against Israel's occupation behavior and opposed the Palestinian peace process; Fatah changed from the initial armed struggle to a political negotiation.To a certain extent, Israel is assisted in suppressing violence and terrorist organizations.
After the 2006 Legislative Council election, Hamas won 7 of the 132 seatsSix seats, replaced Pakistani as the ruling party and obtained domestic legitimacy, but the international legitimacy of the Hamas regime has always been denied by Israel and the international community.In June 2007, Hamas launched a military coup to expel Fatah out of the Gaza Strip and become the actual manager of Gaza."Double political party system" was formed in Palestine.
The future of the dual political party system
As mentioned earlier, the dual political party system contains the risk of national division, and Pakistan's lesson is extremely profound.
This dual political party system is also a barrier to Palestine's unification.What is the future direction of the Palestinian dual political party system?I think there are three cases:
The first case is that if Israel is forced to choose a cease internal and external pressure, due to the deep and fixed position of Hamas in the Gaza belt, it is difficult for Fatah to enter the Gasha Strip., Palestine will also continue to be in the division.Since the outbreak of the conflict, Iran, Iraq, Syria and other countries and Lebanon Allah, Yemenhase armed forces and other organizations have publicly support Hamas.Great cease fire pressure.
At the same time, although Neutanhahu vowed to eliminate Hamas, Hamas's power has spread to the Gaza Strip like a net, and it is difficult to completely remove it in a short period of time.And this year, around the wave of protests formed by judicial reforms, it has severely torn the domestic society of Israel, and the political legitimacy of the Neihuhu administration is at stake.Therefore, it is not excluded that Israel is forced to stop in external pressure, Hamas stops terrorist attacks, and Harbin has the possibility of maintaining the status quo with both sides.
The second case is that Fathe fully controls all the territories of Palestine, namely the west bank of the Jordan River and the Gaza Strip.Since the outbreak of the Pakistani conflict, Neutanahu has once again blocked and attacked the Gaza Strip. A large number of civilians have died. The resources such as fuel, food, and medical treatment have severely tightened.However, Neganahu still stated that it will take care of the pressure of slowing or ceasefire in the international community, continue to promote military offensive until it completely eliminates Hamas, and even hesitate to "firmly fight the world when necessary."
With Israel's strategy against Palestine's strategy from fixed -point, limited offensive to large -scale and comprehensive offensive, Hamas power is bound to be severely damaged.At the same time, the United States continued to firmly support military operations carried out by Israel and promised to provide hundreds of millions of dollars of weapons and assistance. At the same time, the "two countries" were regarded as a way out of this conflict, and they advocated that Fartach managed two regions.Therefore, with the help of Western forces headed by the United States, Israel is likely to give Hamas a heavy blow.Fartach will also take back the management power to the Gasha Strip and re -become the only political representative of Palestine.
President Palestine, also President Fartach, once said that Fatah has the right to also manage the Gaza Strip.Abbas said that Palestinian power agencies can play a role in governing the Gaza Strip. When the independent Palestinian State was established, Palestinian power institutions can become a broad political solution part.Reuters quoted him: "The Gaza Strip is an indiscriminate part of the Palestinian State. We will assume all responsibilities under the comprehensive political solution structure, including the West Bank of Jordan, East Jerusalem and Gasha."
The third type is that Fatah cannot effectively control the Gaza Strip.The political party system will also be maintained.Hamas has developed urban guerrilla warfare due to long -term development of asymmetric military capabilities, and has highly penetrated the sand zone, so it is difficult to completely remove it in a short time.Even if Farta Neng has a heavy palm, Hamas will continue to carry out violent activities in the form of underground organizations for a long time.
Fartach has been separated from the Gaza Strip for 16 years, not only lacks the legitimacy of public opinion required in the management area, but also lacks a full understanding of the current status of the region and the necessary management technology.This time, the conflict caused a devastating blow to the Gaza Strip, and the entire area was completely abolished.The possibility of driving out the Gaza Strip.Some scholars have pointed out that if Hamas is completely eliminated, more extreme religious political organizations may have the blank space left, which is worthy of high vigilance and thinking about all parties.
The author Zhang Jianwei is an associate professor at the Department of Political Science and Administrative Science of the Central South Ethnic University
Zhang Jing is a master's degree in the School of International Affairs and Public Management of Ocean University of China
