Faced with human common enemies, such as climate change or virus popularity, relations with great powers should have been improved rather than worsening.During the Cold War, there was a consensus. When aliens invaded the earth, the United States and the Soviet Union would abandon their former suspects and cooperate to resist.The influence of the popularity of crown disease on international relations is just the opposite. Not only did it not promote the cooperation of great powers, but instead exacerbated competition and confrontation.The world of this century has experienced three strategic shocks: 2001 attacking the United States in 2001, the 2008 international financial crisis, and the crisis of crown disease epidemic in the 2020s.The national security strategy is to manage risks by consciously allocating available resources and improve national security action plans."Strategic Intellectual" refers to the disruptive incident that forces strategists and policy makers to temporarily or permanently abandon the original response strategy.Strategic shocks may change the development trajectory and stability of the country and the world.
But the world after the epidemic is not a strong fight for each other, but a "Security Dilemma" for self -protection for self -protection.The main powers are weakened by the epidemic, and the greatest danger may be that this weak struggle, because each major country believes that the reason for its own security is due to other countries, and the result is that everyone's sense of security is reduced.
From the perspective of the United States, it suffered a double strategic impact of the first 10 years of this century, that is, the 2001 In the September 11 incident and the financial crisis in 2008.After the September 1st incident, the US strategy turned to the failure of the Afghanistan and Iraq war. It costly costly and reputable. Global financial collapse exacerbated the internal differences of the United States and breed extreme populism, which prompted Trump to be elected president.
Before January 6, 2021, most people believe that the US system will always have self -improvement.Now, the persistence of American democracy has become a problem.An defeated president tried to overthrow the results of the election, and the lighthouse of the United States as democracy and the rule of law also collapsed.
In addition, the international community's criticism of the West has become the mainstream.The West condemned Russia for committing war in Ukraine, but Israel has not committed war crimes in Gaza, which fundamentally destroyed the claim of "order -based order".The late U.S. Secretary of State Olbyr once said that the United States is the world's "the only indispensable superpower", but the United States is now reduced to "the only superpower in Israel", and even allies are unwilling to follow up.
China's weaknesses are also exposed.China's judgment on "eastward and west" seems to be too early, and the slogan of "Western decline" does not match the economic, military and technical strength of the United States."West descending" is a serious division of the United States? The rise of China is not the main reason; "Dongsheng" does not take into account the vulnerability of the Chinese economic system.
China ’s severe administrative and technical means in the early days of the epidemic is indeed effective, but unsustainable.China's cancellation of control policies did not bring the expected consumption expenditure rebound, because more negative factor offset this rebound, the weak real estate and manufacturing industry led to a sharp increase in unemployment rates.The cost of real estate collapse is mainly sold out by public finances.However, the reduction of the total population and the increase in aging means that the use of public expenditure to support the economy is extremely limited.This is very different from the 2008 global financial crisis.
Russia's failure to conquer Ukraine also shows its fundamental weaknesses.It turns out that Russian military technology has been out of date, and its organization and command capabilities have also greatly reduced.It still has the world's largest nuclear arsenal and enough indispensable products, but relying on the single economic model of oil and natural gas, it is difficult to drive the stable development of manufacturing and consumption. In the long run, it must be continuous.
In short, the current major powers are facing common reality, that is, the recent strategic impact is not particularly beneficial to any super country, and no country is in a strong position to achieve a decisive and lasting advantage.
Therefore, the two basic national policies that the US government constantly emphasized is based on error judgment: 1. In the 21st century, democracy and dictatorship are the primary contradictions; second, the United States must win and win zero and logic.The warning of the crisis crisis is that the world must put the win -win cooperation in the first place.When the major powers are in a relatively weak state, competition is often abducted by domestic politics, and it is easy to form a confrontation between a large country.Similar to the international situation in 1914, the fire of the stars can cause the fire to get out of control.
The author is Professor Rongxiu, the Graduate School of Graduate Graduate in Geneva
