Wang Fengling: At the beginning of the new year, the situation of adding the Sand Red

Source: Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency

Author: Wang Fengling

Stepping into 2024, Gaza smoke did not stop, and Israel launched a new round of violent air strikes on New Year's Day, saying that the conflict entered a new stage, and military operations may last a year.With the overflowing effect of the Harbin conflict, Syria and Yemen have been involved. The situation in the Red Sea heated up, and Iran has new actions in the direction of Iran.Where is the situation in the Middle East?

The Israeli bombed in the middle of Gaza on the New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, and associated with armed personnel with Palestinian in Khanis.Hamas fired more than 20 rockets to the central and southern parts of Israel on the same day, showing that his military strength was still there.

The Israeli Army issued a statement on the 1st that thousands of soldiers will be withdrawn from Gaza in the next few weeks, but it is not alleviating military operations, but "nourishing and storing", preparing for long -term combat, conflict or continuously, and continuing to continue to fight for a long time.One year.According to officials, this marks that the war is about to enter the third stage and will launch an intensive sweeping task against "terrorists".

Zhu Yongbiao, Executive Director of the "Belt and Road" Research Center of Lanzhou University, bluntly stated in an interview with a reporter from the Hong Kong News Agency on the 2nd that Israel's military operations are still in the second stage.The expected goal of not completing the hostage and the elimination of Hamas can only change tactics and start so -called special operations.

"Pakistani conflict has to last for at least a few months, including the localist clearance operation of Israel, and Hamas's counter -attack and retaliation.It is not long; the second is that the temporary cabinet of Neitana is unknown and the Israeli budget is insufficient. Can the United States support doubts for a long time; the third is that Hamas is not as good as Ukraine, and all parties have less input resources.In the accident, the conflict may end in the first half of the year.

The conflict continues to spread outside Gasha.Israel launched an air strike on the outskirts of the Damascus Syrian on the 2nd.Aiming at the Rockets and drone attacks of the Lebanon Real Party, the Prime Minister Neyahu warned, "If the Allah expands the war, it will be hit by his dreams, and this also includes Iran." In the Red Sea, Iran, Iran,The warship "Albz" entered the Red Sea on the 1st. Earlier, the U.S. military sinking three vessels in the region of the area.

The situation around Harbin has repeatedly heating up, will it detonate the comprehensive Middle East war?

Zhu Yongbiao believes that there is a risk of wiping guns in the Red Sea, but the situation should be within the controlled range.Iranian warships are more attitude display, and it is more likely to use the indirect way to provide weapons to cheer Hasser.It is unlikely that the US policy to Iranian policies is unlikely to adjust.Both sides are unwilling to involve directly, and the performance is relatively restrained.However, if the outbreak of the Red Sea is directly conflict or Iran is involved, its intensity will be stronger than that of the Harbin, and it may be further associated with the Harbin conflict, causing a sharp increase in risks and detonating the Middle East War.

However, Zhu Yongbiao continued to point out that, compared with the first five Middle East War, Israel is very different in this situation. It has not quickly formed one side advantage, and the previous discourse system has also failed.And the "Iranian" power and the United States have no intention to end directly. The mainstream forces such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq are relatively calm, and the possibility of a comprehensive Middle East war is less likely.

"It is expected that the Middle East this year, conflicts and reconciliation are intertwined, including the reconciliation between Iran and other Shiites, Israel and Arab countries." Zhu Yongbiao emphasized that some key factors, such as whether the US policy will be adjusted, Israeli will be adjusted, Israeli is Israeli, Israeli is Israeli, Israeli is Israeli, and Israeli will be adjusted, Israeli is Israeli, Israeli is Israeli, and Israeli will be adjusted, Israeli is Israeli, and Israeli will be adjusted.Whether it will go to extremes, whether the regional armed organizations will overdo the provocation, etc., may affect the situation in the Middle East.