Lianhe Morning Post was interviewed in Ukraine at the end of last year to understand the latest trends of the Russian and Ukraine War. The series reported to meet with readers from New Year's Day.The direction and results of this war are of far -reaching significance for the future world structure.Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a severe challenge faced by the world order after the Cold War.If Ukraine cannot defend the integrity of sovereignty and territory through war or other means, it means that the law of weak meat and strong food will be resurrected.This is also the Singaporean, a small country, should continue to pay attention to the biggest reason for the Russian and Ukraine War.
As the battlefield entered the severe cold winter, the war was now in a state of stalemate, and historical experience showed that this was very unfavorable to Ukraine, which is relatively weak and relied on Western society.In the Winter War that broke out in November 1939, the Soviet Union invaded the northern neighbor Finland.Although Finland relied on geographical people and the country's anti -Japanese war, which caused the Soviet Red Army to suffer heavy losses, the Soviet Union had a strong manpower and resource advantage, and finally forced Finland to sign the city under the city in March 1940, to cut the ground, and agreed that it would not violate the Soviet Union in diplomacy.Strategic interests make "Finland" a new derogatory term for international diplomacy.In the face of the same weak Ukraine, Russia's probability of success is not low.
Ukraine's current difficulty facing the strategy is how to ensure that it continues to obtain Western military and moral support, and can also complete the goal of recovering soil loss.The US Army Chief of Staff during World War II, and Marshall, who served as Secretary of State after the war, had a famous saying: "Democratic countries cannot fight the Seven -year War."Due to domestic political disputes, it is difficult for Western society headed by the United States to help Ukraine for a long time.Therefore, the United States is inevitably inclined to find the opportunity to stop war, such as waiting for the Ukraine to regain Crimea, which was occupied by Russia in 2014.This may be why Ukraine counterattacked in the summer of last year, and did not fully recover Crimea to avoid being forced by the United States, but therefore lost the opportunity to break through strategic breakthroughs.
Today's advanced fighter jets arrived in Ukraine, which once again triggered the Urban's might counterattack.After all, there was no air power before, which greatly restricted the U -military's counterattack ability.However, as the Harbin conflict broke out in October last year, and it may be expanded to Lebanon and Syria, the United States' aid against U -military began to be diverted to Israel.The morale of the Ukraine, which is not in the hope of speed, is difficult to boost, and the war may fall into the long -term stalemate of North Korea.
This is true, which means that the laws of international order jungle have been changed. The international order of "peace under the United States" after the Cold War shakes, and the possibility of bullying and weak warfare in various places will increase, and the world is even more unrestrained.Russian President Putin, who decided to participate in this year's election and must be re -elected, claimed to be in March last year that he was going to fight the five -year war in Ukraine.Today, the United States two parties are even more unwilling to assist Ukraine, intend to choose the president again and the polls far ahead of Trump, and have repeatedly stated that they do not support Ukraine's War of Resistance.Assuming that he won, Ukraine may inevitably seek the fate of harmony.
Once the United States returns to the populist route represented by Trump, the U.S. moral responsibility internationally will be greatly reduced.Even if Trump has not won, it may be more and more difficult to take into account the world's conflict with the current strength of the United States and the increasingly divided domestic politics.North Korea has continuously increased its provocation, and there is no way to respond to Russia and disperse the attention of the United States.The threat of the expansion of the Harbin conflict directly weakened the efforts of Ukraine's support for the United States.
Therefore, the situation of the Russian and Ukraine War this year cannot get rid of the two major variables of the Harbin conflict and the US presidential election.Whether Ukraine can defend sovereignty dignity and territorial integrity is full of uncertainty.How to end the Russian and Ukraine War has a significant and far -reaching impact, and it will define the appearance of the international order in the future.Whether 2024 is the beginning of another era, the Russian and Ukraine War continues to be one of the key factors that people who are concerned about the global situation.
