In the blink of an eye, at the end of the year, the global and regional affairs that the author cares about may be a year of review.Internationally, since the beginning of this year, most countries and regions have regarded the epidemic of crown disease as a basically over; rebuilding the social economy destroyed by the epidemic has become the primary goal in various places.However, I do n’t know if everyone has failed to predict the epidemic, and dare not consume the psychological continuous psychology, or is it still confused about the future. In short, the world economy has been difficult to recover in the past year.The current variety of viruses is scattered, and the epidemic has signs of raging again. Whether the economy can recover needs to be seen.
The epidemic is so repeated and reunited, it is bound to play a difficult role in reversing the global economic development. As a result, it will cause a negative impact on the political and social level.Although human civilization has improved to the invention of artificial intelligence, the disputes and conflicts caused by traditional sensitive issues such as territorial, religion, and ethnic groups in various places may not significantly decrease.In order to fight for power, in many aspects, even with illness, they are still eager to launch war and go to the battlefield.
At the same time, in international politics, the Ukrainian war has lasted for nearly two years, and the two sides of the war are in a state of stalemate.In order to keep Russia's surrounding areas (Ukraine and Russia have joined the Republic for the Soviet Union), which are regarded as the scope of power, it is not allowed to spread to the Western forces.
The Western powers headed by the United States, almost the entire 1980s, supported the Afghan guerrillas with the Afghan guerrillas with the invading local Soviet Army to fight against the agent war with the Soviet Union.It also indirectly led the Soviet Union to fall into the predicament of military expenses and the people's livelihood. It has not been disintegrated after a long time, and it has allowed Russia and Wu to recover independently.Therefore, in this Ukrainian war, the West believes that it can be supported by Afghanistan as before, and it will not fight with the Russian army in the end., Training, funds, etc., let the Wuxi Fang let the latter fight the Guardian War.But even the Anta Anto that year had to have been effective for 10 years.
For less than two years of war in Ukraine, but at this moment, more and more well -known politicians such as the United States and other Western countries have been projected to the boundaries of their own country with the calculated political vision.It is not a way to support Ukraine's anti -Russia, especially in the current environment where the economy is still weak.Therefore, the voices of reducing or even stopping the aid began, especially in the United States Congress. When the president, Biden must be pleasing to Congress to add funds to the relevant aid.Ukrainian President Zelinsky must go to major Western countries to appease more and more impatient politicians.
On the other hand, the West has a significant economic sanctions on the Western war on Russia, and the effect can only be said to be half a ginseng.Russia is a large resource production country, especially the relatively cheap oil and gas, and has made many developing countries as treasures -they have not been "weaning" in Russia's oil and gas as "weaning" in Russia directly or indirectly.Russia oil and gas, so Russia still has a means of making money.
Frankly speaking, the United States is the world's largest oil production country. If it cannot provide these countries that urgently need energy to develop economy, it will provide cheaper oil and gas than Russia. It will eventually be in vain.Just as India and Russia buy oil and gas, Western countries cannot break with them, so they have to default these large loopholes in Russia, and they have not effectively forced Russia to withdraw troops.This glutinous war has become a long -lasting war to test the determination and ability of the opposite parties.
On the other side, the strategy between China and the United States has not subsided in the past year, and even signs of further deterioration.
On the one hand, the United States has formed a hostile consensus on the controversy of the party. It is not more friendly but tough between democracy and Republican parties who compete with each other.Although Biden's mouth said that the United States had no intention of decuming with China, especially in economic technology, a series of bills passed by Congress were in the direction of decoupling. In the coming of the election year, Bayeng was hard to reject it.
On the other hand, China's military and quasi -military (or gray) acts in the South China Sea are becoming stronger and stronger. Of course, the territorial territorial collar of the territory that wants to maintain the status quo is highly vigilant;Regarding the country, you can imagine that you will take the help of the United States. He hopes that the United States will continue to move high -profile activities in the region, such as free navigation.However, this is also regarded as a strong opposition to China, which is regarded as an out -of -domain force. The two big powers are here in the South China Sea. From time to time, you can "meet" from time to time.Superpower.
The United States must understand that as long as its economic interaction with this region in terms of trade and other aspects cannot keep up with China, it is unrealistic to follow it with China to decompose in economic technology.China must also understand that as long as its posture in the South China Sea continues to be tough, it has a disparity military power with the countries in this region, it must accept the relatively strong existence of the United States in this region.
In general, this is a year of economic downturn and turbulent; for next year, everyone can only cope with a more practical mentality.
The author is a senior researcher at the Singapore International Affairs Society (Research Institute)
Chief Counselor of the Malaysian Pacific Research Center
