If Guo Taiming returns to the Blue Camp, it will not only create an atmosphere of unity of pan -blue, effectively suppress Ke Wenzhe's counterattack, but also have the opportunity to totten a whole votes to shift the blue.Recently, Zhao Shaokang, Zhu Lilun and Hou Youyi all shouted frequently to Guo Taiming; Wang Jinping, president of the Hou Kang Hou Houzu Association and former Legislative Dean Wang Jinping, also actively integrated Guo's blue camp local factions and actively contacted Guo, hoping that he could help.
The Taiwan election has recently appeared signs of changing. Although the DPP candidate Lai Qingde still leads the lead, the KMT candidate Hou Youyi rushed to catch up, and the polls gradually approached the scope of the error of Lai Qingde.Edge.
Lianhe Daily and Meilimao Electronics News announced the latest poll results on the 19th. Lai Xiao accompanied and Hou Kang's support continued to approach. Among them, the latest polls of the United Daily News, Hou even tied with Lai for the first time.Looking at each data, Lai and Hou's support is mostly within 5 percentage points. The joint newspaper also appeared 31%of the tie.Ke Ying's support is wandering around 20%, and it is about 10 percentage points with Hou Kang.
Among them, the investigation of the joint newspaper is the most noticeable.During the investigation at the end of November, Lai and Hou won 31%and 29%of voters support, and Ke was behind the 21%support hall.The latest survey shows that Hou's support has climbed 2 percentage points, Lai has maintained unchanged. The blue and green sides are currently tied with 31%support. Ke support has not changed, still 21%, and 10 percentage points behind blue and green.On the other hand, the undisted voters from the end of November dropped from 20%at the end of November to 17%of the survey.It is worth noting that 31%of voters "very hope" next year can be removed from the DPP, 17%"still hope", and a total of 480%of voters look forward to the party's rotation, which is increased by the same institution in early November.5 percentage points, do not want the DPP to be removed from 36%to 34%.
Police data from all parties show that the blue -green and white three parties compete for the Democratic Progressive Party, followed by the Kuomintang, and the people's backward battle.The Kuomintang confirmed the break from the blue and white cooperation on November 24. After Hou Kangjing completed the registration and registration, the large sample number rolling polls performed day by day.By the range of 2%error, the first slight surpassing will be surpassed for the first time on December 12.If the blue -green presidential candidate loses the winning or losing, if it is tangled within 2 percentage points, the election situation has been tied.
However, Hou Youyi's support has risen, mainly because the combination of Hou Youyi and Zhao Shaokang has inspired the basic background of the blue camp, and the support effect is obvious.However, Hou’s high support has never been able to break through 35%, and he has been floating up and down from 30%. On the instead, Lai still stood firmly in the range of 35%to 40%.So far, the gold is still overburning.Therefore, Hou's support may reach the top, and the ceiling is still to be broken; Lai Xiao has been successful in keeping the floor, and there is still room for bullets.
Hou's current support is only a little more than 30%, and then the basic disk of the Presidential election of the Blue Camp over the years, Hou Kang's voting rate should be more than 35%, or even 38.6%of the Kuomintang presidential candidate Han Yu in 2020.In other words, in the case of the basic disk limit of blue and green, the best votes of Hou and Lai are 38%and 46%, and the blue -green gap is maximum 8 percentage points.If the election campaign is entangled in the current situation until January 13 next year, the result will be the victory of Lai million votes.
The basic ticket source of the blue camp, including the light blue voters who originally supported Ke Wenzhe, have returned to the team.Although the Kuomintang's large -scale campaign organized by the counties and cities across Taiwan, although the popularity is more prosperous, it is still mainly showing the opportunity to win the election and help maintain the support.In essence, it is limited.The stimulus of these activities will make Hou Youyi break through the ceiling, and the election of legislators can also overwhelm the DPP. Therefore, the Blue Camp generally feels that it is "already windy" and has the opportunity to win.In the end, it may not really win, but morale is indeed a fact.
Blue Camp strives to show Guo Taiming's support
The Kuomintang and Hou Kang camp evaluated, Guo Taiming, the founder of Hon Hai Group, expressed his stand -alone, and the gap between the 8%of the blue and green 8%was the most immediate.At present, the blue -green and white tight ticket sources are each. Hou Kangding is difficult to dig a 1%more votes. Among the supporters of Guo Taiming, many of them are intermediate voters who are concerned about the economy, or they are still dissatisfied with the Kuomintang who is not nominated by the Kuomintang.Light blue voters, conservative estimates should still be 1 to 2 percentage points, nearly 300,000 voters still stay in Baiying or turn to wait and see not to express. If Guo Taiming can finally choose to support Hou Kangding, it will drive economic voters to note the blue camp.Blue and green votes are also expected to be reduced to 5%.
If Guo Taiming returns to the Blue Camp, it will not only create an atmosphere of unity of pan -blue, effectively suppress Ke Wenzhe's counterattack, and also have the opportunity to tomiting a whole votes to shift the blue.Recently, Zhao Shaokang, Zhu Lilun and Hou Youyi all shouted frequently to Guo Taiming; Wang Jinping, president of the Hou Kang Hou Houzu Association and former Legislative Dean Wang Jinping, also actively integrated Guo's blue camp local factions and actively contacted Guo, hoping that he could help.Guo Taiming has a must -have for Zhu Lilun and is not satisfied with Hou Youyi, so he still has the opportunity to fight for support, but he is not sure that Guo's choice must be conducive to the Kuomintang.
The People's Party and Ke Wenzhe are also fighting for Guo Taiming's support. They believe that Guo Taiming does have a tacit understanding with Ke Wenzhe. The presidential election support target is Ke Wenzhe.President Bai candidate selection station.However, the people's party was also worried that Ke Wenzhe claimed to be a deep green position a few days ago. He also said that the diplomacy and the military would follow the Cai Yingwen line. This may make Guo Taiming doubt about Ke, and the original support of Ke was also obviously loose.
Hou Ying believes that if you can get Guo Taiming's support, you can increase 2 to 3 percentage points of votes, as well as gaps to be supplemented.They hope that Wang Jinping will successfully integrate the local and local factions of the blue camp in the central and southern parts. After all, Yunjianan and high -screen, Hou Kang's support is only about 25%, Lai Xiao is close to 50%, and you must try to reduce the gap.Within 20 %, Hou Kang's votes in North Taiwan and Huadong Win can have the opportunity to offset the disadvantages of South Taiwan.
In addition, young and middle voters are also critical.Recently, Hou Youyi launched the political opinion of the first -term purchase of houses under the age of 40. Zhao Shaokang entered the campus to talk to young people with good results.However, Hou's efforts to strive for young tickets are still fermenting at the same temperature layer of the Blue Camp. From the perspective of network sound volume and young people's response, there is no significant results in increasing the increase in green votes.Perhaps, the disadvantages of being greedy are the most effective weapons that weaken Lai Xiao's support and reduce the Democratic Progressive Party legislators. Therefore, recently, Lai Qingde's illegal construction will be fully unveiled in the future.
"Abandoned Insurance" is the key. Although there will be no large -scale abandonment in blue and white votes, several percentage flows are inevitable.The most favorable situation for the Kuomintang is that the blue -green showdown situation is obvious, while Bai Ying lags about 10%behind. This means that the opportunity of Ke Sheng's election will not be high, which will promote some of the Bai Ying voters who are not expected to rotate the party.Elected Hou.
However, if Ke's support and momentum are acceptable, most of the young people will still insist on investing in Ke.If Hou Kangbing wants to get the biggest benefit from the effect of blue, green and white abandonment, must prevent Ke Ying from collapse of the election, because the young Ke Yin votes will be reached by a large part of the DPP because the Bai Ying wins is hopeless, because the DPPThey are their best choices.Only when Bai Ying supporters have more than 10%of abandoned voting, and Blue Camp gets more Baiying votes, Hou has the opportunity to overwhelm Lai Xiao Bao, otherwise Lai Xiao will get the same dimbings with Hou Kang in the abandonment flow.In the income, after all, the blue camp was unable to fill the gap between several percentage points and completed the overtake.
The author is the former chairman of the Central News Agency
Senior media person in Taiwan
