Comment: The economic slowdown of the long -awaited economic slowdown in the US consum

Source: Bloomberg

Author: katia dmitrieva

The long -awaited US economy slowdown has finally begun.

There are more and more signs -including recent data, warnings from head retailers such as Wal -Mart, and anecdotes shared by local companies that after ignoring market expectations throughout the year and consumption in summer, American families finally finallyBegan to reduce expenses.

Under the heavy pressure of high interest rates and savings, consumers are exhausted. This is the most clear signal of slowing economic growth when entering 2024.As the labor market has cooled down and wage growth slows down, the economy may face more challenges in the new year.

"Family disposable income looks very good -employment growth is slowing down, and wages are also slowing," said Ing chief international economist James Knightley said, "We see that consumers tend to be weak, thisIt is significant " Monthly personal expenditure data released by the government on Thursday shows that non -necessary expenditure such as automobiles, furniture and gym cards began in the fourth quarter.Holiday shopping atmosphere is not so high. During the "Black Friday" period, some of the largest chain stores in the United States faced consumption decline. In the "Internet Monday", the online shopping ratio of the use of paying and paid plans in the "Internet" set a record.

Slowing expenditure will be welcomed by Federal Reserve officials.They have been worried that strong consumption may cause inflation to remain high.Futures show that investors are currently expected to cut interest rates by about 120 basis points in 2024, which is almost twice as expected in their expected range in mid -October.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic mentioned that GDP (GDP) stated on Wednesday that "consumption expenditure accounts for about two -thirds of GDP, so reduction in shopping will mean that economic growth has slowed down." In OctoberA survey shows that companies say they expect sales in the next year to increase by about 3%, which is the lowest level except for the low epidemic in the past ten years.

The third quarter performance announced by large US retailers shows that the decline is imperative.Wal -Mart said that the sales of sales in the last two weeks in October appeared "more rapidly".As buyers become more cautious, Tagit's similar sales have declined in the second quarter in a row.Dollar Tree Inc. executives pointed out that "financial pressure is getting greater and greater" in low -income families.

Economists often believe that consumer expenditure is mainly promoted by the labor market status, and people will continue to consume as long as they have a job.There is evidence that the employment market, which has so far, is also cooling.Data on Thursday showed that the salary level in October was only 0.1%, the smallest increase since this year.Another data shows that the unemployed Americans have become more difficult to find a job. As of November 18, the number of people who continued to apply for unemployment reliefs rose to the highest in about two years.

The highly watched government employment report will be released next Friday. It is expected that the average time -on -time increase will increase by 4% year -on -year. This will be the smallest year -on -year increase since mid -2021.

Although the economy is slowing down, few people predict that there will be a collapse in the future.The medium value of Bloomberg survey showed that the economic growth rate was slowed to 1.1%in the fourth quarter, and then a low point in the second quarter of 2024.

"Of course, the situation is eased, but we continue to see the forward trend and signs of progress," Heather Boushey, a member of the Bayeon Economic Consultant Committee, said in an interview in a telephone interview.. We really need a stable situation. "

So far, the economy has remained tough.According to Citi Group economist Veronica Clark, this situation may change in 2024.

She said: "If we fall into a recession after six months -we believe it will be the case, then we can say that this is the initial sign of the recession."