Source: Bloomberg
Author: Richard Henderson
Taosha Wang is going to return to this market after giving up the popular trading of China's recovery.
In addition to Beijing's clear signal supporting growth and strengthening stimulus to the dilemma, the stock valuation is also attractive. With this encouragement, the Investment Portrait manager is looking for opportunities again.
helping to manage $ 1.5 billion (about S $ 2 billion) Global Theme Opportunity Fund, Wang, said in an interview that he hopes to increase exposure in an restrained manner.Investors are becoming more and more clear, and economic growth has once again become a policy priority.
More and more global fund managers have stopped selling ruthlessly for Chinese assets this year. WANG is one of them; the market value of mainland China stock market has remained 1.6 trillion US dollars since early February.They said that as policy makers finally adopted a stronger action to revitalize the economy, cracking down on excessive pessimism from stocks, RMB to corporate bonds, etc., this has paved the way for the market.
The recent rise in asset prices has strengthened this view.After the RMB against the US dollar rebounded from 16 years, it is about to usher in the best month of this year. A Chinese investment -level credit index in Bloomberg is at the highest level in 20 months.The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index is expected to set the smallest monthly decline since July.
The bullish emotion is returning quietly, but it does not sweep the optimistic emotion that swept Wall Street a year ago.At the end of 2022, due to the resumption of restrictions on epidemic prevention restrictions at the end of 2022, it disappeared and disappeared in just three months, giving investors a painful lesson, making them see that the market that was once regarded as the core part of the global investment portfolio was difficult.predict.
Most of the time this year, China's stock market is one of the worst stock markets in the world.Investors have withdrawn from China at the fastest speed since 2015. Morgan Chase said that many people no longer think that China is a mainstream asset.The long -term real estate crisis, regulatory rectification, and disagreement between China and the United States have led to re -evaluation of its long -term growth prospects.
But the fund managers who have gradually felt that the trend is changing.
The support for the real estate industry is becoming more and more powerful. It aims to alleviate the financing dilemma of developers. From consumption to corporate profits, it also shows that the bottom of the world's second largest economy has passed.Due to the weak US dollar and providing renminbi, the multi -campus believes that the market is at a turning point.
The latest survey by Bank of America's global fund manager shows that the outside world's concerns about China's real estate crisis have been reduced.Nevertheless, short Chinese stocks are still the second largest transactions.
Based on the expected profit in the next year, the P / E ratio of the MSCI China Index is 9.4 times, which is about half of the Standard 500 Index.Prior to this, the Chinese stock market fell for a long time, and the MSCI index expected to usher in the third annual decline.At the same time, the S & P 500 Index has increased by double -digit this year.
Nicholas Chui, a investment portfolio manager of large Chinese funds under Franklin, said that the return of the fund fell with the market, but the decline meanscompany.
According to an overview of the end of October, the fund's main shares include Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu.The introduction also shows that the fund has fallen by about 17%since this year.
RMB support
Seasonal promoters are also bullish.From November to January each year, the Chinese stock market tends to rise, and the renminbi is also boosted at the end of the year. Exporters need more RMB to meet the cash demand.
Analysts of Guotai Junan International, Australia and New Bank and other institutions predict that the RMB will strengthen to the US dollar to the approximate level of $ 1 and recover most of the losses in 2023.
But even people who are optimistic about China will have a strong and confident confidence in how strong the rebound will last.The consensus that people are gradually formed are that although the assets may rebound from this, with the long -term tension between China and the United States and the control of the private sector, the return rate will be lower than before.
After considering all the situation, Chang Hwan Sung, manager of the investment portfolio of Jingshun Investment Solutions, believes that it is difficult to give Chinese stocks low.
SUNG said that considering the dividend yield and valuation, holding Chinese stocks does not have much downlink space.He is also optimistic about the US dollar corporate bond issued by Chinese technology and industrial enterprises, which is super -allocated to investment -level bills, while still avoiding developers' high -yield markets.
