Source: Taiwan Economic Daily News
TheThe US -China trade war has been last for five years. With the punitive tariffs of mutual courses in the United States and China, and the US sanctions on mainland China, the US -China trade relations have weakened.In particular, many companies produced in mainland China and exported to the market market have reduced their production lines on the mainland and even moved to East Asia and Mexico. As a result, the import values and proportion of the United States have declined from mainland China.EssenceHowever, the import amount and proportion of East Asian countries and Mexico have increased significantly. The trade deficit in the United States has also risen rapidly, making the overall US trade deficit rising.
Taking Taiwan as an example, the US -China trade war began US $ 39.5 billion (S $ 53.5 billion) in 2018, increased to US $ 75.1 billion in 2022.At $ 29.6 billion, Taiwan ’s market share in the United States also increased from 1.8%to 2.8%.
In order to prevent products in mainland China, they are exported from East Asian countries to the United States in a "washing place" to avoid punitive tariffs or anti -dumping duties.In order to implement the regulations of the origin.
Affected by the US -China trade war and epidemic, Taiwanese businessmen have gradually dispersed from mainland China to other countries; they have established backup bases in Southeast Asia, India, Mexico and other places under customer requirements, and some high -end products choose to return to Taiwan.In the past, Taiwan exported raw materials to mainland China, and then exported to the European and American markets after processing and production. Nowadays, under the diversified layout, mainland China accounts for the proportion of Taiwan's median exports, from 33.2%in 2020 to 28.0%in 2022, and from TaiwanThe proportion of exports to Asia, India and Mexico has grown slightly.Although this has weakened the division of labor between the two sides of the strait, it has also reduced Taiwan's dependence on the mainland and increased the economic and trade link between Taiwan and the above countries.
The US -China trade war has also changed the trade structure of mainland China. As foreign investment gradually moved out of the production line, the demand for some intermediate wealth in mainland China declined, such as the transfer of mobile phone assembly to Vietnam and India, so that mainland China was in the Chinese mainland, soFrom 2018 to 2022, the import of mobile phones and electronic parts decreased by more than 70 %; the garment industry moved to Southeast Asia, which reduced the import of textile raw materials in mainland China by nearly 20 %.In addition, China's domestic production continues to replace imports, which has also reduced demand for imports abroad.For example, under the development of the electric vehicle industry in mainland China, its battery has ranked in the world's leading position, and the self -sufficient proportion has increased, making the import of batteries and car components in mainland China has also declined significantly.
In addition, when the enterprise moves the production base from mainland China to East Asia and Mexico. Due to the incomplete production chain of these countries, many intermediate components and materials cannot be supplied on the spot.Sell to the United States.Although the direct trade of the United States and China has weakened, East Asia and Mexico have greatly increased from the middle of the import of imports from mainland China, forming another type of triangle trade relationship.Instead of getting rid of dependence on China, the United States has also rely on these countries to rely more on mainland China. Risks have not decreased, and they have even described this phenomenon with "false decoupling".
Regardless of the decoupling, the focus is that as long as the US sanctions on the mainland will not be reduced, the transformation of the trade structure driven by investment will continue.Including Taiwan's East Asia, India and Mexico, it has become the highlight of the new wave of outsiders.
Taking Taiwan as an example, in the early days of the US -China trade war, many Taiwanese businessmen ran away from the mainland. Later, due to bottlenecks in infrastructure, coupled with the unstable cross -strait relations, it affected Taiwan to attract foreign capital.How to ensure transparent regulations and systems, improve infrastructure construction and supporting measures, and the source of talents in order to support foreign capital needs, and for Taiwan's important key to compete in Taiwan's future success.
The role of mainland China was faded by the role of the "World Factory". For the main sector for international brand, Taiwanese businessmen have significantly impacted the processing trade model.Although the weakening of cross -strait economic and trade links can reduce Taiwan's dependence on the mainland, the mainland market cannot be replaced.In the past, due to the lack of brand and enterprise support, Taiwan had limited effectiveness in developing the domestic demand market in the mainland; even if a small number of successful brands operated, there were some difficulties to facing the environment and even withdrawn from the Chinese mainland market.How to assist Taiwanese businessmen in the future can cultivate the domestic demand market in the mainland, and there must be planning.
