Society: Change of US financial policy and impact on the international market

Source: Zhongshi Electronic News

Industrial and Commercial Times Society

The long -term bonds that have continued to raise interest rates by the Fed (FED) have continued to raise interest rates and showed weakly. Recently, there have been signs of reversal. As the FED decision -making meeting in early November has not raised interest rates, it also inspired the three major indexes of US stocks to be in the US stocks.The week rose by more than 5 %, setting the best performance in a week in the past year, while the shares and debt paid the eye -catching achievements simultaneously, the strong US dollar index continued to flip down.The three major financial markets of the stock exchange debt have continued to rise, and the factors that affect the economic environment have also changed. The development of the international financial market is exciting and promising, and the impact on the market in the coming year should pay close attention.

The Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC), responsible for FED interest rate decision -making, will decide to maintain interest rates in early November and meet market expectations.It is still emphasized that I am worried about inflation and do not rule out further interest rates.As soon as this remark, if you read it according to experience, the price of the US debt in the long days should fall, but the result is rising. ObviousLeft and right this market.

The finance minister who has served as the chairman of the FED starts directly from the number of bonds, and once reduces the sales of long -term public debt bids that will be issued.The distribution quota is also reduced.Finally, the issuance of a new wave of bonds will be released, which will be completed in February next year.

From the results, the influence of Yellen's operation is even better than the content of Powell's conversation, which affects the policy reasons for changing the rate of colonial rates. It also moves from FED's interest rate decision to regulate the number of debts to issue debts in the Ministry of Finance.Judging from the most indicator 10 -year public debt yield, on the first day after the announcement of Yellen's three moves, that is, from the 5 % high point, it was quickly lowered, close to 4.8 % of the short -term market stability signal, toIt has been around 4.65 % on November 7.

In fact, the official conversation of officials after the FOMC meeting last time was adjusted by the number of bonds to replace the price guidance model.It is quite obvious on the impact of the yield, and it is likely to be the mainstream of the US monetary policy in the future. It is worth noting.

We also observe that the US government has adjusted the period of financial commodity intervention, and the newly released approach is biased towards the operation of short -term bonds and even Treasury vouchers, which is the main tool for government finance.The one -time financial market is stable in the long -term financial market, and the second shows that the current US government debt is high. The total debt of the federal government has exceeded 33 trillion US dollars in mid -September.The "short support" method is more in line with the current situation, and it should also help alleviate the phenomenon of long -term interest rates.

It is worth noting that the U.S. government has adjusted the "traffic" of the US debt parts. The two major US debt holds the country, China and Japan, and the "stock" correction of the US bond parts.According to statistics from the US Ministry of Finance, the scale of all foreign central banks holding U.S. debt at the end of 2022, compared with the end of the previous year, a decrease of 430 billion U.S. dollars or 6 %.It continued until this year, and the just completed statistics showed that as of August, China still sold U.S. debt at a scale of more than 10 billion US dollars a month. Although Japan has increased in the past three months, it has a limited range.

The reason why the two major US debt holders continue to sell is the main reason for the stable exchange rate.Since the US dollar interest rate rate has remained high since last year, international funds have rushed accelerated, which led to the US dollar and weak currencies in other major countries.

In order to stabilize finance, since last year, central banks from various countries have been put on the pressure of lift the local currency in the foreign exchange market.As far as Japan is concerned, when the US dollar rushes to the yen's exchange rate to 140 and enters the 150 mark, the Japanese banks have publicly announced their determination to stabilize the exchange, and to avoid the derogation of the yen.In order to hold the largest US debt in the country, it should be one of the appropriate and reasonable options by regulating US dollars in exchange for US dollars.

The same operation is also applicable to China, and the situation is more complicated.Hong Kong -based RMB offshore market pressure is the most serious, because in addition to all non -US currencies, in the face of a strong US dollar, under the banner of the US dollar trading, China and South American countries have adopted the national currency to trade.However, foreign trade enterprises in many countries will reach a large number of RMBs, and they are exchanged for the US dollar through the Hong Kong financial market. Not only are the offshore markets poverty, but the RMB that moves to the shore market is also easy to be degraded and difficult to rise.In this case, the People's Bank of China may continue to "adjust" the stock of US debt to respond.