Source: Bloomberg
Steve Matthews
The strong non -agricultural employment report in June and the higher than expected salary growth have led the Fed to continue to drive on the raising track. In addition to the interest rate hike this month, interest rates may be adjusted again in September.
The data released by the Labor Statistics Bureau on Friday shows that the number of non -agricultural employment increased by 209,000, which is lower than the expectations of economists. The number of new employment in the previous two months was repaired.The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%.The average hourly salary increased by 4.4%year -on -year, and the average weekly working time increased slightly.
"Obviously, the data raised the green light in July," said Vincent Reinhart, the chief economist of Dreyfus and Mellon, who had worked in the Fed for 25 years."I think it is difficult to say in September, and the Fed's future action is uncertain."
According to the minutes of the June 13-14 meeting announced on Wednesday, given the continuous inflation and the tight labor market, the members of the Federal Public Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) last month believe that it is necessary to further raise interest rates.Traders believe that there is no suspense at the meeting at the meeting on July 25-26, but their confidence in the rise in the September and November meeting of the Federal Reserve has decreased slightly.
Fed officials may be particularly alert to signs of accelerated wage growth, and some officials believe that this may lead to further heating inflation.
"Salary pressure is actually accelerating," said Diane Swonk, chief economist of KPMG."I still expect that due to the continued growth of the economy and salary, there will be at least two interest rate hikes this year."
Citi Group economist Veronica Clark is expected to raise interest rates in July and September. She said, "This is still a very strong report.
POINT72 Chief Economist Dean Maki said, "The Fed's focus will be placed on the core inflation."The former Federal Researcher said, "I don't think they will continue to raise interest rates because of the strong labor market. Only when the development trend of core inflation is contrary to their expectations and the employment market remains tight, they will have to increase interest rates."
The minutes of the last meeting showed that there were differences in FOMC.
The latest employment report may strengthen these differences.It is hoped that the officials who do not move the soldiers will conclude that employment growth will be significantly slowed based on data in the previous two months, and those who want to further tighten the policy will take the increase in salary increase and decrease in unemployment rate.
