The Russian capital Moscow's suburbs of Moscow suffered a terrorist attack last month. More than 140 people died and more than 550 were injured.The international community was shocked by the brutal behavior of terrorists, and also realized that the world has focused on the Russian and Ukraine War and the conflict of Harbin in the past few years.And even more ambitions.The work of cracking down on multinational terrorist organizations requires the cooperation of the international community. However, due to the computing of each country, this task may be long -term.
The Islamic State controlled about one -third of Syria's territory and 40%of Iraq during its heyday.However, after armed for armed forces supported by the U.S. forces, Russia, and Iran, the Iranian organization had lost control of all Middle East territories until 2019.It was just that this organization did not disappear because of this, but instead switched to the remote hiding place to carry out activities.
Called the "Fan Red Flower City Hall" concert hall of Moscow's "Fan Red Flower City Hall" was responsible for the attack on March 22, the branch of the ISIC State Khorasan Province "ISIS-K or ISKP).
This branch began internationally in 2021.At that time, the U.S. military was withdrawn from Afghanistan, and Kabul Airport crowded the Afghan civilians who wanted to escape from Taliban. A suicide terrorist caused a bomb at the crowd gathering, causing 13 U.S. military and about 170 Afghan people to die.
In January this year, it launched two suicide -type explosions near the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander of the Surmani Cemetery, causing nearly 100 people to die.It was the most deadly armed attack on Iran's territory since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
According to a report from the Institute of International Strategy (CSIS) of the US Think Tank, the Iraqi Organization began recruiting troops to buy IS-K branches in 2014. It was officially announced in January 2015.It takes Afghanistan as the stronghold to attack Afghanistan and neighboring Iran and Pakistan.
After the Iraqi Organization defeated in Iraq in 2017, many militants fled to Iraq and went to Afghanistan and Pakistan to join IS-K.Security experts believe that the branch is gradually growing at this time.These militants brought professional knowledge in guerrilla warfare, thereby enhancing the ability of the Horosan branch to launch attacks.
In June 2020, Sanaullah Ghafari (also known as Shahab Al-Muhajir), who was only 25 years old, was commissioned as IS-K leaders.Taliban sources said that Garfari was a Tagiki Afghanistan and had ordered the Afghan army.Under his leadership, IS-K became one of the most terrible branches in the global network of Iraqi Organization.After the Kabul Airport attack in 2021, the United States rewarded 10 million US dollars (about S $ 13.5 million) to pursue him.
Security and intelligence personnel believe that the U.S. military has taken over the regime after the U.S. military withdrew from Afghanistan, but failed to eradicate the hiding place of the Horosan branch in northern and eastern Afghanistan, thereby making it organic and expanding its influence outward.
IS-K's territorial expansion ambitions almost include the world
Horoshan is a region in Central Asia, and its scope includes some parts of Iran, Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries.Name Horosan can also take a glimpse of the expansion of the branch.
According to the news weekly, IS-K said in the voice of the internal publication published last month, "The territory of Muslims has never been limited to Afghanistan, but wider."
The article wrote: "The Land of Muslim was exchanged for Muslims. It covered the entire Africa, starting from East Turkestan, to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan. It extended to Chechen and Dagistan, andExtend from Turkey to Andalus and the Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, etc. "
The article even depicts a so -called three -border of Harry, which is located between southern France, Indonesia and Australia, and between Central Asian countries and Xinjiang, China.
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Such a wide area makes IS-K almost fighting with the world.Its propaganda tools have violently attacked leaders of many countries, including US President Biden, Chinese official, Russian President Putin, and Iran's supreme leader of Hamenei.
Even the leaders of Hamas and Taliban, which were listed as a terrorist organization in the West and the same Islamic Sunni, are also the targets of IS-K.Although these organizations interpret the doorship doctrine in extreme ways, IS-K is more tolerant of non-believers and other Muslims, such as Shiites.Therefore, even Taliban meetings and non-Muslim diplomats and the aid of non-believers are not allowed by IS-K.
The threat ofIS-K cannot be ignored, but threats to Europe and the United States and Asia are different.
Wang Zhen, a researcher at the Institute of International Issues of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and executive director of the Middle East Research Office of China, answered the situation in Asia during the inquiry of Lianhe Zaobao.He pointed out that in Northeast Asia and East Asia, because the Muslim community and the Middle East are relatively limited and the social order is relatively stable, IS-K is difficult to infiltrate and develop locally through multinational flows.
"But in Southeast Asia and South Asia, on the one hand, there are a large number of Muslim communities in the local area, which is conducive to the IS-K branch to penetrate and expand under the" Islam 'banner.The countries and regions with relatively weak governance, or 'Three regions', are conducive to cross -border mobile and hiding
Expert: IS-K has limited impact on Southeast Asia
However, Associate Professor Antonio Rappa, director of Singapore Social Sciences Business School, believes that inquiries on Lianhe Zaobao believes that IS-K branches have limited impact on Southeast Asia.He pointed out that branches are "connected with many terrorist organizations in the Philippines and Indonesia, but they cannot affect these organizations because their specific goals and tactical goals are inconsistent."
As for Europe and the United States, both Lapa and Wang Zhen believe that the threat of the IS-K branch is less.
Lapa said: "IS-K lacks to the United StatesLocal or Western European cities launch attack capabilities and strategic resources."
Wang Zhen pointed out that IS-K's threat to Western countries such as Europe and the United States has been more reflected in the threat to overseas interests in Western countries in recent years."After the September 11th incident, Western countries have generally strengthened counter -terrorism prevention, and the transnational terrorist organization's penetration and attack capabilities in the West have greatly reduced."
He said that the terrorist forces active in Europe and the United States are more "unique" local terrorists, or ideas such as Iraqi Organization or Kaida, or ideas such as extreme racism.Personal violence crime.
Experts: It is difficult to cooperate with each country for politics
Although the threats facing different countries are different, since major countries around the world are the goals of IS-K, it is necessary to effectively deal with its close cooperation.
But Lapa believes that this is unlikely to be realized.He said: "Ironically, it is not interested in developing any cooperation to combat IS-K, because their safety goals are concentrated in the local area. For example, Russia is unlikely to launch any attack on IS-K because Putin's focus is on the focus of PutinAll on Ukraine. "
Wang Zhen also believes that cooperation to crack down on IS-K branches facing many practical difficulties.First of all, the United States has reduced its energy and investment in the global anti -terrorism field, and has shifted the focus of counter -terrorism to the country, which has caused a certain extent to a certain extent.
Secondly, the United States is redefining the global anti -terrorism war after the withdrawal of Afghanistan, and the original global anti -terrorism alliance has collapsed.In particular, the United States was influenced by ideology and domestic politics, and refused to give substantial support to Afghanistan's anti -terrorism efforts, so that the Iraqi organization Horosan's branch can continue to operate in Afghanistan and long.In areas such as IS-K in the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia, there are still differences in regional countries on anti-terrorism issues, which all affect the effect of cracking down on this organization to a certain extent.
The so -called "cutting grass is not removed, and the spring breeze is blowing again." Iraqi organizations and branches can always wait for the opportunity to wait for a while.Wang Zhen said that so far, human society has not found good medicine to prevent terrorism.However, people can curb it within a certain range through effective measures.For example, strengthening international anti -terrorism cooperation, encouraging the righteous innovation of religious culture, strengthening dialogue and exchanges between different civilizations, and abandoning the "double standards" in international counter -terrorism.
In recent years, IS-K has launched attacks on Russia many times
After the Moscow Concert Hall was attacked, Russian President Putin made a bite that Ukraine was behind the scenes. It is difficult to believe why Bashe extremists launch an attack on Russia, which "supports fair solutions" in the Middle East conflict.
But analysts said that Russia has become a goal.This includes March 2nd Russian security personnel killed six Iraqi tissue gunmen and seized a large number of weapons in the southern region, as well as the Iranian organization extremist intention to attack the Moscow Jewish Church on the 7th.
Russia's attack target is due to historical and foreign decisions
The reason why Russia has become the IS-K attack target is historical reasons, and it is also related to Russia's foreign decisions in recent years.In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and 10 years of occupation, and two Chechen wars in 1994 and 2000 made many extremists hate Russia.
Subsequently, Russia was involved in the Syrian civil war and supported the Assad regime to deal with Iraqi organizations and Kaida.
In Afghanistan, Russia is regarded as an ally of Taliban.This is why the IS-K branch attacked the Russian Embassy in Kabul in 2022.
Moscow is also getting closer to Iran, and Iranian organizations and branches are hostile to the Shiites leadership of Iran.COLIN Clarke, the research director of the Soufan Center, who analyzes global security challenges, told AFP that the Shiites were even on the United States and Israel.
Extremely dissatisfied with Moscow's way of treating a few Muslims in the country.They also believe that Russia is a Christian country.
The most decisive reason may be that Russia is busy with the war with Ukraine, and as a result, IS-K is considered a target that is easy to attack.
Central Asia may become a hotbed of terrorist
Russia arrested more than 10 suspected involved in the concert in the concert hall, most of which, including the four militants, including the attack, were Tagikistan citizens, causing attention.
Tagikistan is located in Central Asia. It is a inland country and surrounded by Afghanistan, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.It is the poorest country in the former Soviet Union to join the Republic. The government is corrupt and has serious political oppression.
Temurov, a researcher at the Eurasian Center of Carnegie, pointed out in an article published by Moscow after Moscow's attack that under the 30 -year iron fist rule of President Rahmon, the Tajikistan opposition will fight againstThere is only one way: radical.
The article pointed out that the international terrorist organization has long regarded Tagikistan as the fertile soil recruited by newcomers.In addition to making Tagik's promotional content, IS-K also operates TELEGRAM instant messaging channels and Tiktok short video accounts in Tajik.
The Iranian organization has launched a number of terrorist attacks in Tajikistan, and the terrorist attacks launched by the Tajik people abroad are also increasing.This is inevitable that people are worried that Tajikistan and even Central Asia have become a hotbed for terrorists.
However, Shanghai Social ScienceWang Zhen believes that it is too early to conclude that Tagikistan breed terrorists.The first is that Tajikistan officials do not shelter these terrorists; the second is that the terrorist organizations in Tajikistan are not more than other countries.
As for Central Asia, Wang Zhen said that there is no evidence that the currently activity of terrorists in Central Asia is higher than the September 1st incident.
La Pa, the University of Science and Technology of China, believes that since the United States and the allies have settled in Central Asia, this area has been the breeding place of various terrorist organizations.
He revealed that when he was coaching at Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajelenan International Research Institute (RSIS), the eldest son of former Afghanistan President Karzy was his student.When Rapa served as a consultant to the International Political Violations and Anti -Terrorism Research Center (ICPVTR), he interviewed the student for the terrorist situation in Central Asia."It can be confirmed that many terrorists are cultivated in Central Asia. Only suicide bomb attackers are mainly cultivated in Pakistan."
