Former US President Trump on Monday (July 15) announced that Ohio Senator Wanus will be his deputy election president.If the "Trump 2.0" era is opened, it will inject greater uncertainty into Sino -US relations.
Trump has threatened to return to the White House, 60 % tariffs , and Wans is also called "China is the biggest threat in the United States" .Public opinion therefore predicts that the Republican campaign group has won in November and launched a new round of trade war against China.
It may get closer to the "Trump 2.0" era, and this week has attracted great attention from Chinese public opinion.
WeChat public account "Uncle Ming Talk" posted on Wednesday (17th), saying that Trump is the "initial figurine" that provokes the Sino -US game. If he is elected again in November, he will definitely exert "extreme pressure" to China.Create a bargaining chip for subsequent Sino -US games.This will cause Sino -US relations to "fluctuate violently and sharply" in a short time after his inauguration.
This article believes that the United States is still the issue of economic and trade issues in the "Trump 2.0" era.The risk of "comprehensive decoupling" will also increase.Although China and the United States are not risks to comprehensive military confrontation directly, the United States has a probability that it will continue to provoke and stimulate Beijing on the Taiwan issue.
Professor Jin Canrong, a professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China, also wrote on Weibo.What is more troublesome is economic and trade relations. If Trump is simple and rough, it will impose tariffs on China and "will cause a fatal blow to Sino -US economic and trade relations."
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the School of International Relations, Nanyang University of Technology, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that Trump, his staff, Wande, etc. have a contempt on the economic and trade relations with China.It will increase the trade war with China, and the high probability of intensity will exceed the first term. "
Fu Fangjian, an associate professor of Li Guangqian Business School of Singapore Management University, was judged in an interview. Trump threatened to increase the tariffs on China ’s exports and US products by 60 %, but“ it must not be done ”.He pointed out that the United States has not yet found a source of substitution that completely replaces Chinese commodities. In addition, improving tariffs will inevitably increase the problem of inflation, seriously damage the purchasing power of the middle and lower consumers in the United States, and will also inherit the image of the Bayeng government against inflation.
The US Think Tank "American Action Forum" estimates that 60 % of tariffs on Chinese goods will increase the additional cost of US families up to $ 1950 (S $ 2615) each year.
Fu Fangjian believes that Trump's pressure on the limit of China is still in order to increase trade negotiation chips, allowing China to buy more American agricultural products and energy, and improve the trade imbalance between the two countries.He pointed out that China has recently begun to reduce the purchase of agricultural products such as American soybeans, which may be the layout of Trump's return to the White House to establish a certain demand as a "concession space" for future economic and trade negotiations with the United States.
Li Mingjiang judged that Trump may not continue the "de -risk" policy in Biden's era. In terms of economic and trade, investment, and financial connections, it will accelerate the pace with ChinaU.S.
Scholars of interviewees believe that although Biden and Trump regarded China as a threat, Trump more evaluated China's threat from an economic perspective, Biden, and more from the perspective of geopolitical strategy.
Li Mingjiang judged that Trump did not pay attention to the relationship between allies when curbing China, and will provide opportunities for China to restore relations with Europe and other Asia -Pacific countries, as well as more space for cooperation.
China has continued to promote the diversification of exports in recent years, and attaches more importance to emerging markets such as the Middle East and Central Asia to cope with the impact of the trade war.Li Mingjiang analyzed that the trade war promoted Chinese enterprises to accelerate overseas to avoid tariffs; however, production capacity transfer overseas to worsen the current Chinese economy, because it is necessary to invest a lot of investment and production to improve employment and local finances.
He predicts that if Trump comes to power, the trade war is upgraded, the phenomenon of foreign investment and evacuation of local enterprises will also increase, and it will have a huge challenge to the Chinese economy.Sino -US relations may decline significantly, and the game between the two countries on the security issue of Asia -Pacific will not be alleviated.
In an interview published by Trump on Tuesday (16th), on Tuesday (16th), it refers to Taiwan "should pay US defensive expenses" in Taiwan " Let the outside world question his attitude to defend Taiwan.
Fu Fangjian believes that Trump is "two ends" on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. On the one hand, it requires Taiwan to largely increase its weapons and raise the defense budget.Essence
Li Mingjiang believes that there are many people in the Trump Guoan team, and they may not agree to treat Taiwan as a "geopolitical card" against China.
