No matter who is elected in the end, Southeast Asian countries need to flexibly cope with the changes in the US policy to ensure that their economic growth and security benefits are maximized.
As the US election enters the final sprint stage, global eyes are focused on this election result that might change the world situation again.US President Biden's withdrawal and Vice President Harris took over to add new variables to this election.Former President Trump's strong return is in sharp contrast to the gentle style of Harris.The results of this election will have a profound impact on Southeast Asia.Especially in issues such as economy, immigration, and geopolitics, the different policy orientation of the two candidates will lead to a completely different result.
From an economic perspective, the United States is an important trading partner in Southeast Asia, and policy changes often have a direct impact.According to a report from the Asian Development Bank, the economic growth in Southeast Asia depends to a large extent on export trade. The United States is one of the main markets.During the first term of Trump, his protectionist policy and trade war had had a significant impact on the global supply chain.These policies especially affect Southeast Asian countries that highly depend on exports, such as Vietnam and Malaysia.The International Monetary Fund pointed out that Trump's trade policy has led to a slowdown in global trade growth, leaving Southeast Asia's economic growth rate decreased by 0.5 to 1 percentage point.This is undoubtedly a heavy blow for countries with a more fragile economy.
However, these challenges are also accompanied by opportunities to some extent.According to a report from the National Institute of Economics of the United States, the Trump administration's trade war on the one hand weakened trade ties between China and the United States, and on the other hand, it also provided other countries with the opportunity to fill this gap.For example, Vietnam has benefited from the tension of trade in the United States and China, and during this period, exports have increased significantly, becoming a source of alternatives for Chinese products in the United States and global markets.However, this benefit is short -term and risky, because once the trade war situation changes, these countries may quickly lose their market share.
On the other hand, if Harris is elected, it may continue the Bayeng government's multilateralism and free trade policies, which is undoubtedly good news for Southeast Asia.The Biden government has repeatedly expressed its support to re -join the Cross -Pacific Partnership Comprehensive Progress Progress Agreement (CPTPP). After Harris came to power, it is likely to accelerate this process.This will provide a more stable trade environment for Southeast Asian countries, which can be more orderly into the global supply chain. This will not only promote economic growth in the region, but also improve its competitiveness in the global market.
From the perspective of geopolitical and military alliances, the influence of the United States in Southeast Asia is mainly reflected in the security cooperation with countries in the region.Southeast Asia is at the core of the United States India -Pacific Strategy. The United States has long maintained stability in the region through military cooperation and security.Although Trump has promoted military sales for Southeast Asia during his tenure, his "US priority" policy has weakened the influence of the United States in the region.According to the US Department of Defense, during the Trump administration, due to the reduction of military assistance from foreign countries, some Southeast Asian countries turned to other major powers (such as China) to seek military support, which is not conducive to the long -term strategic interests of the United States in the region.
If Harris is elected, even in the United States, she is still more likely to strengthen military cooperation with Southeast Asian countries than Trump, especially in the context of responding to the expansion of China.Although Harris has not been skilled in foreign affairs, most of her staff members will recommend more tendency to stand for multilateral cooperation and common defense, which means that the United States may re -strengthen the military forces in Southeast Asia and establish it with countries in the region.More closely security alliance networks.This is in line with the theory of international relations in constructivism, that is, to build a more stable international cooperation relationship through common values and security benefits.Harris's policy may provide more military support and technical assistance for Southeast Asian countries and the entire Indo -Pacific region, thereby improving the defense capabilities of these countries and can better cope with security challenges in the region.
In summary, the results of the US election will have an important impact on the economic and security pattern of Southeast Asia.Trump's protectionism and unilateralism may challenge the region, especially in terms of trade and military cooperation; Harris may bring more opportunities and stability to Southeast Asia by promoting multilateral cooperation and free trade.
No matter who is elected in the end, Southeast Asian countries need to flexibly cope with the changes in US policies to ensure that their economic growth and security benefits are maximized.In this uncertain international environment, the leaders of Southeast Asian countries should actively deploy and not choose the side station easily. Instead, they cleverly use each opportunity to strengthen their international status and competitiveness.
The author is a consultant of the United Nations Information Technology Office
