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"Is the teaching and training industry living again?" This is a question issued by many Chinese education practitioners on August 3.

On the same day, the State Council of China issued 20 key tasks on promoting high -quality development of service consumption. The most notable of which included "promoting social training institutions to improve service quality for public needs", and "Guiding the school to introduce the introduction of the numberNon -disciplinary high -quality public welfare after -class service provided by the tripartite institutions ".

It is not difficult to understand the reason for the attention. Almost three years ago, they released opinions on further reducing the burden of student homework and off -school training during the compulsory education stage.burden".

This policy is called "double reduction", and the severity of the wording exceeds market expectations. Some investors immediately believe that "this track is basically abandoned."

Three years later, then promote the development of education and training, so that the two -year industry for two years is happy after the misconduct -New Oriental Education, Action Education, Angli Education, and Zhonggong Education's educational stocks have continued to daily limit.

What is the deeper reasons behind this change?

Interviewing practitioners, parents of students, and economists, reviewing the great changes in the teaching and training industry, and using this to glimpse the "new normal" of the Chinese economy.

"Great Pain" just adapted

"Our company's headquarters is in Shanghai, doing K12 (12 years of elementary school middle school) English training, and the branch is spread across the country." Li Si (a pseudonym) operated a branch school in a third -tier city.Two campuses are opened locally, one large and one small, after dual reduction, it starts to transform pain, close the larger campus, and retain smaller campuses.

"Then it is to adjust the content and no longer engage in the discipline content of the compulsory education stage that is not allowed to be allowed, but focuses on the English enlightenment of preschool, and then adds the business of post -school custody." Li Si said, but even so, even so, even soStill have to lay off more than 60%, and employees have been reduced from seventy or eighty to more than 20.

According to Chinese media estimates, there are more than 10 million practitioners from off -campus training institutions.The industry layoff ratio is estimated to reach more than 50%after double reduction.

After the transformation, Li Si's training school has always been income. Because of English enlightenment and after -school custody business, demand is far less demand as high as subject training, so Li Si's school is facing the rise in marketing costs.Now that the business is not as good as before. "It has always maintained the operation of smaller campuses and cannot be returned to the scale of double reduction.

"In the past, half of the children in the class would go to the tuition class. Parents were all passed on, and there were discounts to introduce deductible tuition." Wei Shujuan, who was in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, had a 13 -year -old son.With a 8 -year -old daughter, her son has reported many extra -curricular and auxiliary classes. After the daughter was implemented in school when she was in school, she had not reported a class.

"It is impossible not to report at that time." Wei Shujuan for example, if the child ranked tenth in the class, and his "first five and the last five students" were tutoring extra -curricular, the pressure on parents and children was veryLarge, unless it is the kind of child who can maintain the first few people by himself, it will face this pressure regardless of learning.

Wei Shujuan believes that he is still restrained in the reporting class. He used to control about 10,000 yuan each year, mainly to run the annual card (7,000 yuan) of Zhang Ying's educational institution.Yuan).

Wei Shujuan is very fortunate to save this cost after dumping, especially now that the environment is not good, and her income is also affected. If her daughter's teaching cost is "unbearable."But (exchanged at the time) also had to be suffered. Chinese parents were like this.

Li Si also believes that her situation is relatively good in the industry, the economic environment is not good, and it is good to survive.She revealed that the problem of a headache is the first year after the double decrease. The local education department often inspected and encountered a staff member who had seized the "bamboo bar" to the door.The gray industry, this is the most uncomfortable. "

It did not stabilize until the last year.

"Be careful and optimistic"

As a parent, Wei Shujuan said that supporting double reduction, not wanting to return to the past, parents consumed each other, and economic pressure was too great.

"Keep cautiously and optimistic." Li Si said that after the introduction of the New Deal, the head office also had a communication meeting with the principals of various local schools, mainly to convey the judgment of "rational view, don't blindly expand", because this promotion policy is also promoted and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy and also promoted the policy.It does not mean that a restrictions brought by double reduction.

Double reduction division education and training into "disciplines" and "non -disciplinary categories" are extremely strict for the former. Not only do you make meticulous regulations in training duration, price, and contentThe transformation is "non -profit institution"; there are fewer constraints for the latter.

The current promotional measures have not been introduced by the registered policies registered by discipline training institutions during the compulsory education stage.

"Don't misunderstand, my understanding is that there is no relaxation of control, but just say that for the allowable parts to promote its growth in the future," Li Si said.

The News Office of the State Council of China held a press conference on August 9. At the meeting, officials introduced a number of measures related to educational consumption.Including: reasonably reduce the negative list of foreign capital access, promote the orderly expansion of education and other fields; the continuous iteration of service robots such as education, and the steady development of new models such as digital education;, Hold the service consumer season series to promote consumer activities.

Li Siji said that after a "industry earthquake", her mentality changed.She couldn't estimate the variables of policy, and this was exactly a sudden and absolute.

ING Bank's chief economist Song Lin reminded a new method of popularization in China this year- "stands first and then breaks".

"Li" mainly refers to the creation of new things such as new mechanisms, new technologies, and new formats; correspondingly, "breaking" roughly refers to the abandonment of old things such as old mechanisms, old technology, and old formats.In other words, China's previous approach was that without "standing" a new education system, the old education industry was "broken".

Song Lin believes that the current measures are a encouraging sign, indicating that the decision makers are re -examining some policy decisions that may produce accidents -the decision of the teaching and training industry has suddenly caused a lot of unemployment and disturbing many people’s people’s’s.Normal life."Ending first and then breaks" indicates the importance of maintaining stability in the period of China's economic transformation.

How to save it

It should be noted that the above 20 new policies are not limited to loosening for education, from consumption such as catering, tourism, to housekeeping, RV camping, etc.Projects that have been regulated for a time are urgently stimulating the improvement of residents' consumption.

"Economic imbalance, so promote the transfer of consumption." Moody's Analytics economist Harry MuRPHY Cruise said that in the economic layout, high -tech manufacturing is playing an important role, but the family is watching and the real estate market is constantly going down.This engine has only one cylinder working, and the economy is facing stagnation risk, especially when trade barriers are constantly appearing.Officials hope to use consumption to let the economy run away from the low -speed operation.

Song Lin restores the changes in China's economic power.

Last year, consumption accounted for 82%of the annual economic growth, and the current growth of 2%year -on -year growth is the weakest level after the epidemic, indicating that weak consumer confidence is still the main resistance to economic recovery.

In the first half of this year, the recovery of overseas demand supported the development of China's manufacturing industry and became the initiative of economic growth.However, the Chinese economy generally slowed down -the GDP increased by 4.7%in the second quarter of this year, lower than expected, especially the consumer field.Recent data shows that the manufacturing industry is facing greater pressure, and the manufacturing data for several months is shrinking.

"Because the goal of this year's growth is 5%, if the growth momentum of the manufacturing has begun to weaken, other aspects of growth goals are needed to achieve the growth goal. Consumption is the ideal situation, but since the confidence is still very weak, it is likely that it is likely"Increase investment" Song Lin said.

Not only that, in the long run, China's goal is to transform the consumer -driven economy."Most major economies in the world are domestic -demand -driven economies. If the transformation is successful, China's huge market will have huge potential. China has also introduced some policies to support the long -term development of consumption, including improving social security networks and improving services."

For China's latest 20 promoting consumption policies, Cruise splashed cold water, "These have not seized the key points. 20 measures seem to assume that the family's tightening expenses is because they have nothing to buy something they want to buy."

Cruise further explained that in fact, the family does not consume because they lack confidence in the economy or their future.Unstable work after the epidemic is the key to it. Many people control expenditure and enrich savings to prevent unemployment.Increasing employment opportunities, especially the employment opportunities of young people, will be the key to continuously increasing consumption.