Comments: Consumption lacks sparks in China and still slowly walk slowly

Source: Bloomberg

China's economy may be difficult to reverse the worst situation in the five quarters. Consumer expenditure lags behind industrial activities and investment, and the recovery in July is uneven.

According to the estimated medium value of Bloomberg, the data released on Thursday will show that the total retail sales of social consumer goods are still downturn. Although the retail sales will be slightly improved due to the favorable comparison base and the effects of the summer vacation season.The growth of industrial departments and investment may stagnate, but it continues to exceed half of GDP consumption.

UNION BANCAIRE PRIVEE senior Asian economist Carlos Casanova said in this week's report that the relevant data is expected to reflect the downturn of the third quarter.He added that the weak inflation data showed that consumption prospects faced additional downlink risks.

As the Chinese government sets about 5%of the annual growth goals of the year and the lack of economic recovery, it will almost exacerbate the voices of except for additional policy stimulus during the year.China's highest leadership at the recent Politburo meeting shows the position that supports economic growth more, and emphasizes that we must focus on promoting consumption -long -term weak links in the economy.

The new measures for accident cuts and promoting service expenditures last month and promoted service expenditure were not helpful for increasing consumer confidence. The continued downturn in the property market still dragged down the main wealth reserves of residents.

Although the government launched the largest rescue plan for the real estate industry in May, it has not yet helped the market to bottom out faster.

China may soon introduce more currency stimuli.Of the 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 14 believed that the People's Bank of China will maintain a one -year mid -term lending convenience (MLF) at 2.3%this month.

The central bank also dilutes the role of MLF as a policy interest rate.According to Bloomberg reported earlier, the Central Bank of China is reportedly planned to adjust the MLF operation to the 25th of each month. The fastest adjustment starts from August, and the central bank is generally operated on the 15th of each month.