Specifically, the thermal nuclear war may shift from the mutual suppression of "mutual guarantee" to the "premise" to destroy all or most of the opponent's attack capabilities.The new cognition has theoretical value and practical significance for analyzing the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and maintaining strategic stability among the great powers.
During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union had confronted for a long time and were tense, but in the end, it did not cause thermal nuclear war. Many themers believed that this was because both sides realized that the nuclear war was a mutual guarantee to be destroyed.The war of short), the result will only be the same.During more than 70 years after the birth of nuclear weapons, except for the two times the United States used nuclear weapons to Japan in August 1945, nuclear weapons were no longer used in war.As a military theory, MAD refers to the country that is attacked, even if only 30 % of the nuclear counterattack capacity is retained, it is enough to make devastating revenge to the attacker.
Furthermore, the huge destruction of nuclear weapons and long -term destructive effects after use have also made the international community and the people of all countries have an instinctual dislike and extreme fear of it.However, in today's leaps of artificial intelligence (AI), precise weapons and drones, the MAD theory and effects will seem to face another paradigm transfer, which will subvert this stable logic of the previous "established nuclear military pairing."Specifically, the thermal nuclear war may shift from the mutual suppression of "mutual ensuring destruction" to the "Pre-EMPTIVE" strategy of destroying the opponent's all or most of the offensive capabilities.The new cognition has theoretical value and practical significance for analyzing the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and maintaining strategic stability among the great powers.
China's "First Batch of High -end Think Tank" in Beijing, and the 2024 Global Strategy and Security Risk Report released by the Chinese Institute of Modern International Relations (English abbreviation) pointed out that the United States has increasingly "one -time destroying the opponent at the same time at a timeThe ability to offensive power ".The report said that "feasibility is because we are in the era of military intelligence and can be used as a command and dispatch through intelligent perception."The more tend to grab the first shot. "
The real foundation of China ’s concerns
CICIR, described as China's "composite international strategy and security issues and decision -making consulting institutions", further pointed out in the report that senior US military officials have publicly stated in 2021.Fast and faster action is the advantage of combat; but in the era of intelligence, this has become "combat necessity".The strategic thinking behind it is that military intelligence has fundamentally changed the "comparison and coordinated offensive level of offensive and defensive costs and collaborative offensives", so it can be the first to destroy the opponent's counterattack for the first time, in a short time, all, or most of the place.As a result, the strategic stability logic of "ensuring the destruction" is subverted.
The situation shows that CICIR is worried about the above development and has a certain real foundation.Not long ago, the U.S. Air Force University announced a 255 -page research report on the Rocket Army of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, which took stock of the development process of the Chinese Rocket Army, and disclosed its base coordinates, personnel positions, logistics, command facilities, and up to up to up to from to from the go of up to the up to the go.Details from the Command to the cooking class.The United States announced that this report was considered to show the deployment of the Rocket Army, which has mastered the most aggressive Rockets in China, but destroyed it in one fell swoop, with strong scary.
Second, in the case of verification, the most shocking military assets are that submarines carrying nuclear missiles can be closer and hidden near the opponent's waters.The closer to the geographical, the more the shock is, because after the missile is launched, it can reach the scheduled attack place in a short time, which is difficult to intercept it.This is also one of the main reasons why Western countries such as the United States attach great importance to the blocking China on the first island chain. When the Chinese submarine must pass from the coastal base, the throat must pass by.The Gonggu Strait and the bus between Taiwan and the Philippines and Luzon Island in the Philippines.At present, Chinese submarines are closely monitored through the above channels. Once the location is exposed, the itinerary is no longer secret.
Third, since this year, Western media reported that nearly half of the US nuclear -powered aircraft carrier and affiliated combat groups have gathered many times the Western Pacific, there is no contemporary, the primary shock is China, followed by North Korea; in addition, there are many analysis.It is believed that this is to show that the United States is capable of taking into account the military conflict caused by the Russia -Ukraine War and responding to the military conflict caused by the Red Sea region with the Hussean (and Iran), it should be in response to the possible war in the Taiwan Sea and the South China Sea.However, nearly half of the US nuclear -powered aircraft carrier gathered in the Western Pacific region. Its formation is unprecedented.What is the ultimate strategy of its imagination?
Fourth, earlier this year, Japan and the United States signed a Tomahawk cruise missile agreement with a range of 1,600 kilometers.The Japanese government revealed that this is to cope with the threat from China and North Korea, and the US military has also provided training to the Japanese Self -Defense Force on the use of missiles from March.Analysis pointed out that Tomahawk missiles have long -distance accurate strike capabilities, which greatly improves Japanese military power and US -Japan military coordination capabilities.In addition, in terms of defensive missile attacks, the Israeli missile defense system successfully intercepted more than 200 missiles and drones launched from Iran. The missile defense capabilities under artificial intelligence controlled were no longer talked about the soldiers on paper.
Of course, the use of high intelligence AI in the military is not a US patent. The CICIR report also mentioned another related concern, that is, "the incompatible artificial intelligence system may further magnify security risks."The report states that if one -sided emphasis is emphasized, regardless of common safety, and their respective development of each other, they are not compatible with mutual compatibility and uncomfortable military intelligence systems, which may exacerbate the risks of the rapid upgrading of the conflict between major powers and the rapid upgrade of crisis in the future.This will be a risk of causing a global humanitarian crisis.
Looking back from the extreme doomsday scene today
The options for the first or most or mostly destroyed the opponent's nuclear weapons counterattack in a very short time, all or most or mostly, is it too far away and worry?The reality is that Russia, who has been in trouble in the Russian and Ukraine War, has repeatedly said that strategic nuclear weapons may be used; in addition, Dong Jun, the Chinese Defense Minister who has just attended Shangri -La dialogue in Singapore, also said, "Who dares to split Taiwan out of China, it is necessaryBroken bones, self -destruction ", toughness exceeds any time in the past.
Therefore, people need to recognize the huge destruction of nuclear weapons and the long -term destructive effects that may be brought after in use. At the same time, we must also ask. Today, in today when AI, accurate weapons and drones are developing.Is it outdated in thinking?Do you want to learn from the extreme doomsday scenes and seek the way of response as soon as possible, including practical reflection of the CICIR report, "Global challenges are coming, and the global governance mechanism is overwhelmed"?
The author is a Hong Kong current affairs commentator, a member of the former SAR Government Strategy Development Committee
