In addition to the Harbin conflict, in addition to setting off the anti -Israeli mood in Southeast Asia, it also detonated the derivative war in the Middle East.One of the main lines is Lebanon's attack on Israel.Of course, instead of what actions of Lebanon's launch of Israel, more appropriately, it is the Revearal of Israel.

Rebellion of Israel has repeatedly attacked Israel this year, including launching multiple rockets to northern Israel.On March 28, the Allah used a stronger bomb to attack for the first time, and claimed to be targeted at Israeli civilians.The next day, Israel's attack on Syria led to a number of Syrian and Alignment Warriors.This is the most important attack on Syria over the years.

In mid -June, the General Secretary of the Allah Hashan Nasrola for rarely publicly warned that if Israel launched a war against Lebanon, the Allah will relentlessly fight back and warn Israel "No place is safe."" ".He also threatened to assist in Swip Laus in Israel.

Israel is now facing a difficult choice. They will eliminate Hamas as the primary goal and have no time to face the provocation of the Allah.Then, if the Evi Army successfully cracks down on the main party, the Iranian government behind the latter may think that he is the next goal, and it will not rule out the launch of a comprehensive revenge on Israel.

The speech of a "political party" leader made European and American countries so worried, and why can the Lebanon government tolerate the true owner so freely?

【Kingdom of Junior High School: True Party】

In 1982, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard used the opportunity of Israel to invade Lebanon to export revolutionary ideas to Lebanon, and gave birth to the Allah.Iran gives more than 100 million US dollars aid each year, including anti -ship cruise missiles and rockets that can fight against Israel.

Daniel Byman, a counter -terrorism expert, pointed out that the Lord is "Lebanon's most powerful single political movement" and is a powerful guerrilla.Although they cannot conquer other countries, they can give the enemy a fatal blow in guerrilla warfare.

Byman believes that although the Lebanon government has a regular army, the internal organization of the army is loose and the strength

The powerful Trust force can be played with Israel in the summer of 2006.

In addition to the military strength, the true party also replaces part of the functions of the Lebanon government.Due to the long -term failure of the Lebanon government in providing national services, coupled with the political leadership of Catholic Malone and Muslim Sunni, the Shi Lord has become a public construction provider in these communities.

The Allah has established institutions parallel to the state for many years, such as its own clinics, schools, banks, and even gas stations.Especially since the economy has almost completely collapsed in 2019, Lebanon has been trapped in a series of crises.In the case of disability in national machinery, the true party can provide benefits with salaries and social services in the local community, which to a large extent to which the followers are exempted from the impact of Lebanon's financial collapse.At that time, Hashan Nasrola became the most popular person in the Arab world.

[Fack of UN resolutions]

We can ask, why can the Allah can have their own armed forces? Did the United Nations and Israel have not taken action?In fact, they have failed.

After the 2006 summer war, the United Nations decided No. 1701 to clearly require the border between southern Lebanon and Israel. In addition to the Lebanon government and the UN temporary forces in Lebanon, no armed personnel, assets and weapons are in the area.Activity.

Although the Osam and Israel continue to verbally support the resolution No. 1701, the two parties have not actually complied completely.Moreover, the resolution did not give UniFil to assist the Lebanon government to lift the authority of all non -governmental armed organizations, so the Allah continued to smuggle weapons and training troops in the area.

At that time, Ehud Barak, the Secretary of Defense, said that No. 1701 resolved "no effect, completely failed" because Syria and Iran have transported ammunition, rockets and other weapon systems to Lebanon.At the same time, Israeli fighters have continued to invade Lebanon airspace, which is often mentioned by the Lord of the Osam.As a result, the Octs' position is still unchanged: they will not prepare for the next conflict with Israel because of the resolution of the UN Security Council.

Lebanon's political system is based on religious denominations. The president must be a Malone Christian, the Prime Minister is Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker is Shiita Muslims.Although this system aims to balance the power of each denomination, it has led to serious political division in actual operation.

So far, Lebanon is still anarchy.Before the former President Mitchell O'n stepped down, he insisted on dissolving the cabinet.Originally, only the new president was selected and the new Prime Minister was appointed to the Pavilion to resolve it. However, the presidential candidate was delayed and failed to produce, which made Lebanon on the stateless of the head of state.

The lack of political legitimacy has further limited the Lebanon government's ability to actively respond to domestic and foreign challenges.What's more serious is that a stable Organizer can use armed forces at will and directly endorse Lebanon in foreign affairs.

Lebanon's parliament requires two -thirds of the majority of votes to choose the president. Only the profound differences between the major political factions have not reached a consensus on many votes.In addition, the Allah has always refused to compromise, hoping to support the stance of the Baza conflict and not hostile to the President of the Lord.

Therefore, the speech of the leader of the Allah is indeed not negligible, and its external behavior represents almost representing Lebanon.The possibility of misjudgment by the leadership of the Allah is very dangerous.Take the war in 2006 as an example. At that time, the Agent Agent sneaked into northern Israel and abducted Israeli soldiers.This provocative behavior triggered a 34 -day war, about 1,000 people died and more than one million people.Later, Hashan Nasrura admitted that if he knew that Israel's response would be so fierce, he would not approve the abduction operation.

This time, did Hashan Nasrola's excessive speech happened under misjudgment? Do both sides know the bottom line of the other party?Whether Iran authorizes the Alone to upgrade military behavior.All of this is worth observing.

The author is a graduate student in political science in Taiwan University, Malaysian current affairs commentator