Source: Bloomberg
Author: shulun huang
The Chinese regulatory agency has taken a series of strong measures to cool down the debt cattle. The yield of 10 years of national debt active coupon has rebounded more than 10 base points from the previous low, and basically returned to the level before the interest rate cut in July.After weakening for many days in a row, the market buying on Tuesday was re -exposed, and government bonds generally strengthened.
In addition to the recently sold national bonds in the secondary market in the secondary market, according to people familiar with the matter, some government bonds bought by some agricultural commercial banks in Jiangxi Province have not been settled on Monday after Friday;Treasury bond transactions have been reduced since last week.In addition, the Shanghai Headquarters of the Central Bank of China is reported to convene some institutions on Tuesday to discuss the risks of the bond market.
Analysts believe that the supervision of multiple measures is that the bond market crazy cows will turn around. As the tax period approaching the price of funds, the short -term debt market is expected to take off the volatility pattern.At the end of Tuesday, the yield of 10 -year active vouchers fell to 2 basis points to nearly 2.22%. The period of the same period increased and stopped three consecutive declines.The 5 -year active coupon yield once fell by 10.5 basis points, which narrowed to 4 basis points.
Liu Jie, director of China's macro strategy of Standard Chartered Bank, believes that the central bank's original intention is not to trigger violent selling, but for those institutions that are still trying to specify long -term yields, supervision really wants to issue a strong warning information. It is expected that the most intense bond marketThe adjustment has basically ended, and the yield will not break from the current level.
The People's Bank of China invested 385.08 billion yuan through a single -day repurchase single day. The price of funds fell slightly from the high point on Monday. The interest rate of repo overnight pledge repurchase was reduced to nearly 1.93%, and the 7 -day variety still formed inverted.
The regulation of the bond market also includes that at the requirements of the local financial management department, the national bond transactions of some rural commercial banks in Jiangsu were reported last week.While the state -owned bank continues to sell national debt, it is necessary to record the transaction's opponent's information.This also means that in the latest operations, specific financial institutions may become the target of strike.In the second quarter of the second quarter monetary policy report last Friday, the central bank also sounded the risk of bonds.
ROHEET Shah, the bond electronic trading platform Marketaxess, Hong Kong and Asia -Pacific sales director, said that in the last week and Monday, the largest national debt sales of the platform came from 7 to 10 years.The flow of funds on the platform shows that there are more mid -length and long -term trading at this stage, and the bond yield curve may become steep in the short term.Through the platform trading Chinese bonds, it is mainly offshore investors, including asset management companies, hedge funds and overseas branches of Chinese banks.
Zhou Xue, a senior Chinese economist in Asia, said that these intervention measures have proven that they can effectively prevent excessive speculation in the debt market, but she pointed out that it is more important that the government should take more decisive measures including currency and fiscal policies to prevent it from preventing currency and fiscal policies to prevent currency and fiscal policies to prevent it from preventing currency and fiscal policies to prevent currency and fiscal policies.Cerfusion tightness expectations.
Chinese regulatory agencies are facing a dilemma, which must not only reduce financing costs to support economic growth, but also take care of the stability of the financial market, inhibit the crazy rise of bonds to avoid foaming.However, excessive intervention in the government may leave the market out of economic fundamentals and damage the long -term confidence of investors.
Liu Jie of Standard Chartered also believes that with the further reduction of the public market's reverse repurchase profit rate with the central bank, the yield rate of long debt will re -reduce, but it will be slower.
