Source: China News Agency
Author: Li Xiaoyu
The third challenge of the global economy is easy.The latest data shows that in 2023, Japan's GDP (GDP) is about US $ 4210.6 billion (S $ 566.7 billion), which is lower than Germany's 4456.1 billion US dollars, from third to fourth in the world, and has been in Germany after more than 50 years.Excellence.
This scene is somewhat dramatic.Some analysts believe that the main reason for the changes in the economic status of Japan and Germany this time is not the improvement of Germany's strength, but in the exchange rate.
In 2023, the German economy shrinks by 0.3%year -on -year, far worse than the average level of developed economies, and is not even comparable to the expected growth rate of about 3%of the global economy.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) bluntly stated that Germany has become the worst world economy in the world last year.
At present, the exchange rate of the yen to the US dollar has fallen near the 150 mark.Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ research investigation agency analyzed that in addition to the devaluation of the yen, the rise in prices and the appreciation of the euro to the US dollar also pushed up German GDP.If the price factors in the euro exchange rate and the nominal GDP in Japan and Germany are certain, and the exchange rate of the US dollar and the yen returns to the yen to depreciate sharply, the GDP of Japan and Germany should be at the same level.
Although there are accidental factor by Germany, it is an indisputable fact that the Japanese economy encounters severe challenges.
Zhang Jifeng, a researcher at the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote that the sluggishness and recovery of the Japanese economy were not the influence of the epidemic, but the continuation of the long -term chronic decline after the bubble economy collapsed.In addition to the aging population, the decreased laws of economic improvement, and the increasingly complicated and severe international situation, the government's economic policy errors are also one of the reasons for the continued downturn in Japan in recent years.
Zhang Jifeng said that Japan's implementation of the yen devaluation policy hopes to expand exports, thereby driving domestic production to expand, and to promote employment and residents' income.However, since the implementation of this policy, the actual salary of residents has not risen and falls, and consumption cannot be expanded, resulting in continuous shrinkage, and economic development has fallen into a vicious circle.From the middle and long term, it is difficult for the Japanese economy to get rid of the fate of long -term downturn and chronic recession.
It is worth noting that with the accelerated evolution of the century -old change, Japan and Germany's economic status may only be the beginning.Considering that the economic toughness of various countries is different, when the world economic situation is "warm and cold", the "rankings" of major economies in the future may continue to shuffle.
According to IMF, India will become the fourth largest economy in the world in 2026, and Japanese GDP will fall again to fifth in the world.
