Three days before the closure, the Chinese stock market ushered in three rare red lines, and the market sounded warm applause.Although everyone knows that the rising stock market these three days is the result of the government's strong pull.However, for 200 million shareholders, it is at least a comfort, and it is a small gift for the New Year.Even if everyone understands that this is just a short joy, but there is no better than not.

Talking about the stock market, we must not talk about the economy. As the saying goes, the stock market is a barometer of the economy.The fluctuations in the stock market not only reflect the confidence of the stockholder's confidence in the stock market, but it is a value judgment from the shareholder's overall performance of the economy.

Entering 2024, A shares have reached a record low. How many shareholders want to cry without tears and do not want to give birth.From many self -media, you can see the fertility, desperate shouts, and the world -do -like fear of shareholders.

Observing the economic trend from the stock market seems easier, the stock market is good, and the economic performance is usually good.Because the stock market is very intuitive, how much rises, there are how much they fall, at a glance.If in turn, the situation is not so simple to predict the direction of the stock market.For example, in the past 10 years, according to the economic data released by the Chinese government, the growth rate of GDP (GDP) has been ranked among the top world.However, the Chinese stock market has been sluggish for 10 years and hovering on the horizon.

This is difficult to understand why the Chinese government has repeatedly emphasized the steady development of the economy, and it is better all the way. The data announced is also very good, but the stock market is opposite?There is only one explanation that shareholders do not believe in economic data released by the government, or the economic data announced is not real and too much water.Because the stock market is about to take out the number of real gold and silver, the GDP data released by the government cannot verify the authenticity.For the various data released by the Chinese government, the world can only passively believe in its truth, and international financial institutions can only passively quote the data.

This has a serious problem. If an distorted economic data is included in the global economic statistics system, the global economic prediction report obtained will inevitably occur.If major companies use distorted data to handle our investment business and judge the Chinese economy, there will also be distortion.It may be seen that in the past 10 years, Wall Street Capital Cruscture has made various misjudgment of the Chinese economy after singing the theory of China's economic light, and paid a heavy price for this, so that in the past two yearsLeave China.

In fact, the Chinese economy has been showing fatigue as early as 2012. Until 2018, Trump launched a Sino -US trade war, and he has been trapped in mud that has declined.After Biden came to power, the Sino -US economy accelerated on the road of decoupling.However, many internationally renowned economists have turned a blind eye to this, and even advocate that China and the United States cannot be described.

When the Chinese government proposed a dual -cycle economic concept in 2019, the high -level think tank has realized that exports will definitely decline. In order to maintain the nominal GDP growth rate, the local government saves the real estate industry on the verge of bankruptcy at the expense, so that the real estate industry can be able to get the real estate industry.Gou Ying for a while.However, when the carriage stumbled, the government could not find the prescription.

However, the key factor that truly leads to the crisis of China's economy is still a crown disease.During the three years of the epidemic, the government comprehensively and strongly controlled politics, economy, and society. As a result, the weaknesses that were originally hidden in the depths were spread under the sun.Today, when the information is developed, everyone in the world can see how the Chinese government does not hesitate to harm the basic rights of the people when encountering the national crisis, even if foreigners are no exception.

The result of

worsen the economy that was already very fragile.The most fatal thing is that the sealing control allows Western countries from social elites to ordinary people, and they all have extremely negative views on China.According to data from well -known poll agencies, people in Europe, the United States, Japan and other countries have fallen to a record low to China. 80%of the people are unwilling to go to China again, and they do not even want to go.Presumably this result was unexpected by the Chinese government.

There are so many smart people in China. Why didn't you expect such a result?We found that China is popular in theory and constantly mislead the Chinese government.That is, the Chinese elite has always believed that China has the most complete industrial chain and has the advantages of the world's factory that cannot be replaced by any country. At the same time, the 1.4 billion population itself has a super large market, which is also unique in the world.According to Marxist theory, capitalists are vampires. As long as they give them benefits and sweetness, they are not afraid that they will not come.

At this moment, when the reform and opening up were just started, the global industrial structure adjustment was in the ascendant. China became the ideal partner of economic globalization. It was not found under the lantern.However, the economic globalization is now affected by geopolitical politics, and there is a general trend in various ways.Political correctness has surpassed the value concept of economic globalization.In this context, can China still miss the old yellow calendar, can it work?

In recent years, under the guidance of comprehensively curbing China's strategic ideas, the United States has strongly led the establishment of a blue supply chain with developed western countries, and is gradually replacing the red supply chain.This trend is very obvious, especially in the fields of high -tech industries, such as chips and artificial intelligence, western countries sanction China to the greatest extent, blocking China's economy to develop a higher level.Polisherlessly, in the next 10 years, China may be kicked out of the global system by Western countries and become a lonely country.

If this statement becomes a fact, the Chinese economy that has been benefited from globalization will face severe challenges.Without the support of economic globalization, in a strict sense, it means that there is no support from Western countries. Although it is mutually beneficial, when the West listed China as a unreasonable country, they have made a comprehensive decourse, even some countries in some countries.Do you prepare for the preparation of the World War I?If you only rely on accelerating economic cooperation with Russia, Iran and other countries, do you still have the opportunity to stand on the international stage to become the protagonist?

China can close the door to carry forward the spirit of self -reliance and hard work.From the perspective of rationality and analyzing the current status of China's economy, the simple conclusion is that there is no worst in the future, only worse.If the economy cannot recover, and even continue to bottom, can the stock market be better?

After the Spring Festival, perhaps the government will continue to take various measures to concentrate their strengths to support the stock market. However, any country and the government want to change the laws of the market through administrative means.

The author is a retired businessman in the United States, former civil servant in China