The US diplomat website published on January 18th, entitled to go to the risk of misunderstanding the advantages of the Chinese manufacturing industry, the author is Wang Xiaofeng (sound).Article excerpts as follows:
In the context of the continuous upgrading of geopolitical tensions, the United States has been working hard to deal with the challenge of "risks" to China in the past three years.This includes measures such as tariffs, sanctions, and exclusion of tax credits to reduce its dependence on China's dominant role in the global supply chain.The US policy maker optimistically believes that these actions will not only ensure the elastic supply chain in the interests of the United States, but also hinder China's progress in high -end industrialization.
"Risk -de -risk" has brought significant changes, especially China ’s decline in exports to the United States.However, standard trade data does not fully reflect the actual effect of "risk".Fitch International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. pointed out in a recent analysis report that so far, the overall size of the diversified supply chain is not large, and it will not weaken China's position as the world's largest manufacturing center during the medium period.What supports this evaluation is that China's share in the added value of the global manufacturing industry will continue to increase, reaching about 30%by 2022.Although (the United States) is trying to make the supply chain diversified, this trend in China is still continuing.
When evaluating China's continuous prominent position in the global manufacturing industry, the strategic importance of intermediate products is often ignored.The intermediate product as a measurement standard helps to explain why China's dominant position in the global supply chain will not be weakened due to "de -risk".In addition, it also reveals the huge challenges faced by building a supply chain independent of China -these challenges are much larger than at first.
In the past 20 years, intermediate products have become the main export products of China, which has contributed almost 60%of foreign trade growth.What's more noteworthy is that China has maintained its status of the world's largest half -finished product exporter for 12 consecutive years.Its dominant position in the production of intermediate products is even more important than the dominant position in final product production, consolidating its position as a global manufacturing center.
China's dominance in the production of intermediate products has enabled it to have an important influence in the diversification of the supply chain.Fitch International Credit Rating predicts that from the mid -term perspective, the impact of production transfer on China's trade value will be relatively mild.This is due to the sharp surge in demand for intermediate products from China, which has played a cushioning role and offsets the potential losses caused by the decline in finished product exports.
Ironically, diversification may promote those countries that use Chinese intermediate products to manufacture products to the United States to increase demand.China ’s intermediate product exports to participate in production transfer countries (such as Vietnam) have increased significantly.Although Vietnam's total exports reached 10.36%of China in 2022, its value -added export (total export value reduced imported intermediate products) was only 1.28%of China.This highlights Vietnam's serious dependence on China in key industrial investment.Similar situations also exist in other emerging competitors in China's supply chain, such as Mexico.Their dependence on Chinese middle products has weakened the effect of "de -risk" strategy.
The main supply of the intermediate products not only helps China offset export losses, but also provides a more important advantage, although not so obvious.This advantage makes China more flexible than the United States in the diversified environment of the supply chain.The new study by Richard Baldwin, a professor of international economics at the School of International Management and Development of Switzerland, revealed that there is an indescribable supply chain dependencies between China and the United States.
Baldling in China ’s investment in the products purchased by American manufacturers from third -party suppliers carefully, Baldwin found a surprising phenomenon: the actual impact of Chinese products on the manufacturing industry in the United States is almost four times the initial surface.What's more noteworthy is that the dependence of US manufacturing in China is significantly higher than China's dependence on the United States.
Although there are inherent defects, the United States is doubled hard to achieve "de -risk" in economic relations with China.However, a key issue has emerged: Can the United States reverse that China currently accounts for one -third of the global manufacturing industry?As China continues to advance its advantage, the United States' efforts to reverse this trend may face greater challenges.(Compilation/Wenyi)
