The world is already in crisis, and now there is another: North Korea is showing extremely unusual dynamics. Some senior experts are worried that it may be preparing to launch a sudden attack on South Korea and even Japan and Kagama.

Since the report and visiting North Korea in the 1980s, I have seen many false alarms."Kim Jong -un has made a strategic decision to launch the war" -Mas such a straightforward conclusion, if it was not from the two extremely credible experts, I would not write this latest warning.

There is no conclusive evidence support, and the two experts also admit that such predictions will create panic.However, one of them is Robert Kalin, who has analyzed North Korea's issues for the Central Love Bureau, the State Council, and other institutions; the other person has visited North Korea seven times and has in -depth contact with the North Korean nuclear project.· Hick, he may be the only American who has picked up (in a jar) North Korea.

Carin and Heck published a paper on the 38 North website that followed North Korea, and put forward their warnings.They claim that North Korea may use nuclear warheads to strike the region (it is unclear whether its nuclear warhead can shoot to the United States and realize the atmospheric layer.)

Both of them told me that they were not sure when the North Korean leader Kim Jong -un will launch an attack, and it is not sure what kind of form will happen.

"Will that be a comprehensive offensive?" Kalin asked himself."I don't know what his army has now. I suspect that they are making plans and trapped. Some of them say, 'This is too crazy. We can't do it.'" Others said:'This is what the leader wants, we have to do it.In fact, we also have enough missiles and nuclear warheads to complete this task.‘”

North Korea is good at roar and insult (remember "old confusion"?), My overall view is that Kim Jong -un is a pragmatist. He uses exaggeration to talk about bargaining chips.This situation may be like this: we never know how the North Koreans are going on, maybe they are just looking for attention.If these warnings come from the mouth of others, I tend to ignore it.But Kalin and Heck are professional, and their warnings are worthy of our serious treatment.

For some time, North Korea has obviously brewing.Kim Jong -un kept hopes at the summit held with President Trump in Hanoi in 2019, but the summit failed, leaving Kim Jong -un lose face.For decades, under the rule of three leaders, North Korea has been seeking to reach an agreement involving trade, reputation and economic benefits with the United States, but now it seems to have given up this idea.Instead, it strengthens its relationship with Russia, improves nuclear weapons capabilities, and has upgraded remarks.

This week, North Korea announced that it would take a more severe attitude towards South Korea, modify the constitution and long -term unified policies, and will not respect the traditional boundary line.Kim Jong -un said that his army was preparing for the "great revolutionary incident". Callein said that this was a word that was previously used to describe war with South Korea.

Kim Jong -un said that North Korea does not want war, but it means that the war may come: "The war will seriously destroy the entity called the Republic of Korea (the official name of South Korea) and end it."Disptes P> I contacted other experts and sought their opinions.Joe Witt is a long -term North Korean issue of the State Department of the United States and is currently working in Stin Sheng Center.He said that he "attached great importance to" Kalin and Heke's opinion.Witt said that the recent incident of launching artillery shells in North Korea's disputed waters with South Korea "made me shudder" because it seemed to be a major provocative preview.

Bynden government did not focus on the North Korean issue because it is understandable: it is trying to deal with many other emergency crises.Weite said that if North Korea has abandoned the United States decisively, it may be too late to have diplomatic contact with North Korea, but he also said that China is now deeply concerned about North Korea and Beijing may help.

The National Committee of North Korea is an alliance composed of people who have in -depth understanding of North Korea. The member of the member Deborah Fix said that at present, many non -profit organizations that have a working relationship with North Korea have issued them to inquire about them.No response.She is also worried about the risk of conflict.

On the other hand, the reason for people to be skeptical is that it is difficult to see what is the benefits of North Korea attacking neighboring countries.Kalin and Heck did not give an exact answer to this, but they pointed out that sudden attacks like this in the history of world history abound. The reason why they are surprised is that it is precisely because the attacker seems to have no reason to launch this at all.Specific attack.

Heck pointed out that North Korea is one of the three countries that have a potential nuclear threat to the United States -the other two are Russia and China -but North Korea has not received much attention from high -levels recently.It should get attention.

In the process of reporting North Korea, what I learned is: Don't predict it.But in my opinion, the Biden government should strengthen diplomatic contact with Pyongyang, and try to contact Chinese high -level Chinese high -level contacts on this issue, invest in intelligence assets in order to better understand the risks of North Korea and ensure that our army is prepared.No one knows what will happen, and it is a wise move to prepare well.

Translation: Harry Wong, Jin Qijiao