Trump may be reorganized on power. The politician website on January 3 this year pointed out that Trump's current support rate among Republican preliminary voters exceeds 60%.Trump may become the presidential candidate of the Republican Party in 2024.Biden is likely to be nominated by the Democratic Presidential candidate.Trump's support rate is higher than Biden.In 2024, the US election may repeat Trump's confrontation with Biden, and the former may re -enter the White House.

Bayeng government faded the balloon incident

Trump is the most disliked among those who participate in the president of the United States in 2024.Compared with Trump, Biden has made positive contributions to Sino -US relations.The biggest contribution is to avoid military conflicts in China and the United States from beginning to end.The best example is the balloon event.According to a report by the US Broadcasting Corporation at the end of last year, the former US official and current officials reported that Biden government officials had intended to conceal information about the Chinese balloon that appeared in the United States in early 2023 in the public and parliament members.

It is reported that the Biden government officials complained privately that political attack on balloons is not proportional instead of its threat to US national security.In their opinion, due to the great anger and humiliation of China, the damage between the relationship between Washington and Beijing has threatened the United States more seriously than the balloon itself.The Bayeng government dilutes the balloon incident and puts US -China relations in a better direction.After months of hard work, the Bayeng team finally promoted the worship meeting.

Trump's attitude towards China is completely different.Trump is the developer of the Sino -US trade war, and his administrative official awakens the United States to re -recognize China, which has led to the change of the United States to change its perception of China.Not only are the two parties in the United States regarding China as the biggest threat in the United States, but most ordinary American people also believe that China is the biggest threat of the United States.The first -stage trade agreement reached by the Trump administration and China is the alliance of the city signed by China. After the agreement was signed, Trump stepped down, and China also threw the agreement into the Pacific Ocean.With the confidence of "Dongsheng and West", China has not regarded an agreement as one thing at all.

If Trump is re -administered, he will not zero the agreement that China is abandoned.On the contrary, he will definitely calculate the old account together.Lytechizer, a designer of the Sino -US trade war, is still an ally of Trump's hardcore. He has been attacking China's trading policy for four years after his steps down.For example, in an exclusive interview with the Wall Street Journal in January 2021, he urged President Biden to maintain all tariffs on China.The future fact is that the Bayeng government has maintained Trump's tariffs on China.

Trump is ruthless to China

The combination of

Trump and Littichizer must definitely have a drastic surgery of Sino -US trade relations, which is already fully foreseeable.Trump has not been elected as the new US president, but he has thrown out the 2025 trade agenda.According to the New York Times on December 26 last year, Trump said that he will "implement severe new restrictions", prohibit the Chinese from owning various American assets, and will also ban Americans from investing in China, and gradually ban import imports from imports.Made in Chinese products, steel and drugs made of electronic products.

Echoing the economic and trade relations between Trump's Chinese and American economic and trade relations is a report released by the Special Committee of the House of Representatives on December 12 last year.The report is the most detailed and comprehensive explanation of the Sino -US economic and trade relations so far.The report on page 53 covers nearly 150 legislative policies and suggestions. From fundamental to the Sino -US economic and trade relations, the purpose is to serve the economic and security benefits of the United States.The essence of the report is to formulate a roadmap for economic and trade policies in China.

Many suggestions in the

Report cannot be transformed into policies by Congress, but the report proposes to cancel the status of permanent normal trade relations to China (PNTR, which is equivalent to the most beneficiary of the country).This proposition is also the current claim of Trump.Leitchizer actively defended Trump's protectionist at the interview.He published in June last year that no trade was freedom (or can be translated as "free") (No Trade is Free), saying that China was "fatal opponent".He also suggested to cancel China's most benefited national treatment.Former Vice President Pence, Governor of Florida, Desantis, and former governor of South Carolina, said that it would promote the withdrawal of China ’s most beneficiaries.

If the United States cancels China's most favorable national treatment, it is equivalent to completely resetting Sino -US economic and trade relations.This change is essentially different from the risk and non -decoupling of the Bayeng government.The export control and investment restrictions implemented by the Biden government concentrated in the high -tech field; and the cancellation of China's most beneficial national treatment is equivalent to returning Sino -US economic and trade relations to 40 years ago, which is also equivalent to eliminating the positive significance of China's entry into the WTO.A study by the National Committee of the US -China Trade National Committee commissioned by the Oxford Economic Research Institute pointed out that the cancellation of China's most beneficial national treatment will seriously disrupt the US economy.Increasing tariffs will lead to a loss of 1.6 trillion US dollars (about S $ 2.15 trillion) within five years, and employment positions decreased by 744,000.

The research perspective of the Oxford Economic Research Institute cannot quantify the cost and income of quantitative security factors. The United States is starting a comprehensive strategic competition with China. The United States will also learn from China to put the importance of putting security in economic interests.Isn't the global supply chain resettlement driven by security factors?Chris Miller, the author of the Book of chip war, wrote in the New York Times and called for the United States to implement extensive export control again in the face of revenge Russia and hostile China. Otherwise, US equipment will continue to be used.Build an opponent's army.From this judgment, the US export restrictions on China will not be limited to high -tech, and it will inevitably affect ordinary products.

China has seriously misjudged Trump

When Trump came to power in 2017, China seriously underestimated what Trump did.Jin Canrong, an international expert who promoted Aristotle that did not exist in Aristotle, was widely preached that Trump was a businessman.Whether Chinese experts have influenced high -level decisions are unknown.However, the Chinese government's treatment to Trump's visit to China is obvious to the emperors, but he did not change his decision -making on China at all.

According to the Wall Street Journal report on January 4, the public documents and internal financial records obtained by the Democrats of the U.S. House of Representatives' Supervisor showed that the Chinese government and related entities paid more than $ 5.5 million to Trump's companies.Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is likely to pay more than $ 5 million in rental fees to his company during Trump's administration.It is impossible to know whether China ’s expenditure in Trump is normal business transaction or an emotional investment in Trump.

It is certain that Trump with Christian faith is not a senior official of Russia.Russia's senior officials were corrupted by bribery, no belief in life, no moral constraints.Chinese decision makers may treat Trump as senior Russian officials and naturally want to use material interests to cover him, but Trump does not follow the way of common sense, causing Chinese decision makers to hurt the brain.The fundamental reason why China misjudges Trump is that he is unwilling to find the answer to solving the problem from the conflict between the differences between the Sino -US economic system.This differential conflict will continue until the new US government in 2025.

China hopes that Trump will be selected, because economic and trade relations are the only channels in China that can gain real benefits from the United States.The alliance strategy implemented after Biden's administration has caused great dilemma to China, but it does not cause substantial benefits to damage; and the resettlement of Sino -US economic and trade relations will completely subvert China's foreign economic environment.The predicament of overcoming.

The significance of this article is not limited to Trump, which can refer to the consequences of the Republican Party's administration, and even the Democratic Party.On January 6, the news website AXIOS posted that improving tariffs on Chinese goods will be part of the re -election plan of the Biden. He hopes toLeave his own imprint to show his trade policy to China, and it is more smart and stronger than Bittan's policy.This is the consequences of the strategic competition between China and the United States, and it is also the inevitable result of Sino -US ideology and institutional conflict.

The author is Shanghai current affairs commentator