In the 2000s, Zhang Jiadun sang the Chinese economy like this, and predicted that the Chinese trip would collapse.But what about the facts?Not only did China not collapse, it was developing.Similarly, people have predicted that the United States has declined countless times, but the fact is that the comprehensive national strength of the United States is still strong.
Recently, the voice of the empty Chinese economy has become the mainstream of public opinion in the United States and western countries. Some experts and scholars in China also have similar views. Among them, it involves issues such as demographic dividends, sustainability and geographical politics of Chinese models.Regarding these negative arguments, China's official and official media are qualitatively qualified as: it violates logic and contrary to the facts, but it is just an old bomb that sings the Chinese economy.Relevant departments have raised it to the height of national security.
What I am curious is that the economy of a country or region can really be sang?I always doubt this.
Think of the 2000s, at that time, the entire world, especially the United States and other Western countries, was not optimistic about China.As China has joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), it is a wave of "China's collapse theory."Among them, British economists are the most representative.Back back to the forecast of China during the Asian financial crisis from 1997 to 1998 25 years ago.On October 24, 1998, is the economist entitled China the next one?A question on the front version of the article: "Is China's growth slowed down or even fell into a pause? ... Yes." Then, it raised another question: "Whether the unemployment arising from this will cause political turbulence, or leadership leadership, or leadership leadershipThe power struggle between the layers? ... yes. "
On June 15, 2002, four years later, the economist launched a special additional publication entitled by China Dragon, which is not breathless, and concluded for China: "China's economy still mainly relies on domestic growth engines, and these enginesIt is gradually declining.Crisis ... Therefore, in the next 10 years, China will become more unstable.Squeeze by bank "
Echoing this is a Chinese scholar Zhang Jiadun from the United States.Zhang Jiadun was born in Jiangsu, China, born in the United States in 1951. He is a doctor of law at the University of Connery. After graduating from university, he became a lawyer of a multinational law firm.After China's reform and opening up, Zhang Jialun was sent to work in Asia, first in Hong Kong, then transferred to Shanghai, and worked there for many years. The main customers were Citibank and French Oriental Banking Bank.He has personally participated in some Chinese and foreign joint ventures and mergers and acquisitions, and has a certain contact with China's economic development and social changes.
He has published articles on Chinese economic issues at the Wall Street Journal of the New York Times, and has also made a briefing about the Chinese economy for the US Congress and various think tanks.During his work and residence in Shanghai, Zhang Jiadun began to write a book introducing China.After the manuscript was completed, he took his wife to give up the work of Shanghai and returned to the United States to settle.This book was a book of China, which was later published in July 2001.
In the book, he publicly declared that China has accumulated too many disadvantages in economic, social, and political aspects in the past 50 years.Crash in a short time.He even asserted: "China's current political and economic system can only maintain up to five years ... China's economy is declining and began to collapse. The time will be before the 2008 Beijing Olympics instead of it!"
Zhang Jiadun's "Chinese collapse theory" caused a lot of sensation in the United States. China is about to collapse or even appear on the New York Times bestseller list. Even the U.S. Congress invited him to the hearing.Subsequently, the book was translated into text, France, Germany and other words, and was issued in many countries.Some media and universities in Western countries invited him to do interviews and hold lectures.Overnight, he became famous.After China is about to collapse, Zhang Jiadun has published a series of comments, such as Argentina in Asia?The impact of the Entry effect, China will inevitably move towards the decline of China's potential overall collapse prospects.
But what about the facts?As everyone see, the development of China's development is the opposite of the forecast of economics and Zhang Jiadun.Not only did the Chinese economy collapse because of their decline, but it has made great progress.Data show that from 2002 to 2012, China GDP increased by 173%, an average annual average of 10.5%.In contrast, the World GDP increased by 37%at the same time, that is, an average annual 3.2%; US GDP increased by 21%, that is, an average annual average of 1.9%.That is to say, during the same period, China's GDP growth rate was 4.7 times the world average and 8.4 times that of the United States.Since then, from 2010 to 2022, China's GDP growth rate did slow, but still as high as 116.0%.During the same period, the fastest -growing country -India, GDP growth was only 94.6%.That is to say, the growth rate of India's GDP is not far more than China.On the contrary, China's GDP growth rate was 23%higher than India during this period.The average annual growth rate of China's GDP is 6.6%, and India is 5.7%.
This is the same in China, as well as the United States.The tone of the decline in the United States is really not a new topic.Professor Josef Joffe of the Hoover Institute of Stanford University had special research on this and found that the "American decline theory" has obvious periodicity: repeated and significant stages.One cycle every 10 years.I agree with him, because I am writing the Chinese economy to repeat the mistakes of Japan?In the first book, the large number of literatures contacted supported Jofei.But like the "Chinese collapse theory" around the millennium, the United States did not have a long -term and large number of "singing decline" remarks, leading to the decline of national strength.
On the contrary, Japan, in the 1970s to the 1980s, was completely in a state of view of more internal and external.In 1979, Fu Gaoyi, a well -known Japanese expert at Harvard University, published the number one book in Japan, which caused a sensation throughout the United States.The core of the book is that the rise in Japan is about to replace the United States and become the world's number one.In September 1987, David Haier, an economist at the Chicago Capa Financial Service Center in Chicago, published a predictive article, comparing the impact of Japan in 1988 and the United Kingdom in 1896 on the United States.The final conclusion is that the Japanese became the largest creditor country in the United States just like the Britain of the 19th century.Japan failed to defeat the United States in the Pearl Harbor incident and is realizing through economic means -Japan is occupying the United States peacefully.
In fact, at the same time, Americans published many similar books.But unfortunately, Japan did not really become the world's number one because of a lot of singing.The recent prediction of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is that according to the US dollar, this year's name of Japan's GDP (GDP) will be surpassed by Germany from Germany to fourth place in the world.At the same time, IMF expects that India will become the fourth largest economy in the world in 2026, and Japan will fall to fifth in the world from 2026 to 2028.
The facts of the positive and negative sides have also been verified, and Marxist classics -the development of things is not shifted by people's will -right.It means that the development of things will not change due to human thoughts, feelings, and will.This is because everything has its own laws and operations.The laws are objective and universal. It cannot be created nor eliminated. Naturally, it will not change due to human subjective will.EssenceIt is for this reason that the economy and finance of a country can sing and decline at willWhat about it?
The objectiveness and universality of the law requires us that we must follow the laws and do things in accordance with objective laws without violation of the laws; violate the laws will be punished by laws.
The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist
