The continuous conflict between Israel and Hamas continued to shock in the Middle East.In the past few weeks, the Hascean armed forces based on Yemen have frequently launched an attack on merchant ships sailing in the Red Sea to express their support for Hamas.Although it was originally claimed to be only targeted at Israeli vessels, the ships hanging from other countries were also attacked, which threatened the global supply chain.In the eye -catching incident in November, the Hassas armed forces hijacked a Japanese cargo ship that was driving to India.
In order to cope with the risk of daily increase, the United States launched the "Prosperous Guardian Action" involved in the United States on Monday (18th) to perform joint patrol missions in the Red Sea to protect ships sailing on this important waterway.The Hassas armed forces in Iran said the next day that they would confront any joint forces deployed to the Red Sea and threatened to launch a sea attack every 12 hours, unless Israel stopped the "crime" in Gaza.It was reported that the United States and its allies were considering an attack on the Hussean armed forces in Yemen, and curb the Red Sea attack from the source.
Although the actual economic loss caused by the Red Sea attack incident so far, this maritime crisis with a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers from Gaza may be a prelude to the spread of the Harbin War and has become an impact on the world economy.
Red Sea vessels have recently been attacked frequently. The most direct consequence is that the insurance premiums passing through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea have increased.According to reports, the premiums that cross the Red Sea have doubled, and the additional costs required for each process may be as high as hundreds of thousands of dollars.Many shipping companies believe that the risk is too large to decide to suspend the route.In the past week, large -scale shipping companies such as Masisk, Herbelot and Mediterranean Shipping avoided the Red Sea.Analysis of the Think Tank of the Atlantic Council, seven of the top ten shipping companies in the world have done so.
Red Sea is the only way to enter the Suez Canal, and the Suez Canal is an important channel for international trade, connecting the shortest sea road in the East and West.Avoiding the Red Sea means giving up through the Suez Canal and detouring Africa. In addition to letting the Egyptian economy rush, it will also increase the voyage of thousands of nautical miles.Higher fuel cost and labor expenditure.Various additional costs involved in shipping will eventually be passed on to producers and consumers.
This has caused people to worry about international business activities.It takes more time to reach the destination, and it also needs more time to return to the air. The interference caused by the entire supply chain will be doubled, and the reduction of trade activities will eventually affect the global economy.The trade volume of the Red Sea accounted for 12%of the global trade volume, and the annual trade volume is as high as US $ 1 trillion. Therefore, any delay or database of this key offshore route will seriously disrupt international trade.The importance of the Red Sea is not limited to the Middle East and Europe, and it is also important to Asia, especially China and India, because they have a large part of the trade with Bay and other countries through this key channel.
Although the conflict of the Harbin eruption has not affected energy prices, the interruption of the Red Sea may change this trend.British Petroleum stopped all oil and natural gas transportation through the Red Sea on Monday, and the price of the two rose.If the incident of attacking the ship prompts more oil companies to stop transporting through the Red Sea, it is likely to further push high energy prices, resulting in the overall inflation rate continues to rise.
The global economy is still recovering from various impacts. The Red Sea crisis will make the situation complicated and make the central bank's efforts to transition to the loose policy.In 2021, the Giant Container Captain Captain Ever Given was trapped in the Suez Canal that caused the traffic to interrupt for less than a week, and the international supply chain took several months to recover smoothly.The war has been dragged for two years, not to mention Eli's century -old grievances.The longer the Harbin War continues, the longer the Red Sea shipping interruption will take longer, the more serious damage to the global economy.Nowadays, the United States' intervention in the Red Sea will exacerbate military tensions in the Middle East. Gaga warfire may evolve into a battle between the United States and Iranian agents. Therefore, we need to prepare for the economic impact of down or appearing.
